Keplerian expansions in terms of Henrard's practical variables

Formulae for the Keplerian expansions in terms of Henrard's practical variables are given. Two different methods were applied: one using the Bessel functions and one based on the Lie transforms. The former involves less series products, but the latter is more flexible and universal.     

The Use of Seasonal Climate Forecasting in Policymaking: Lessons from Northeast Brazil

This article examines the use of seasonal climate forecasting in public and private efforts to mitigate the impacts of drought in Ceará, Northeast Brazil. Here, forecasts have been directed towards small scale, rainfed agriculturalists as well as state and local level policymakers in the areas of agriculture, water management, and emergency drought relief. In assessing possibilities and constraints of forecast application in Ceará, the present analysis takes into account three types of variables: (a)characteristics of the forecasts; (b) policymaking systems; and (c)institutional environments. We conclude that, on the one hand, several factors in the Ceará case have limited the effectiveness of seasonal climate forecast use. First, the current level of skill of the forecasts is inadequate for the needs of policy development and farmer decisionmaking. Second, forecast information application has been subject to distortion, misinterpretation and political manipulation. Third, focus on the forecast as a product until recently neglected to take into account end users' needs and decisionmaking behavior. On the other hand, climate forecasting has the potential to offer a dramatic opportunity for state and local level bureaucracies to embark on a path of proactive drought planning.     

Socio-spatial polarization and the (re-)distribution of deprived groups in world cities: A case study of Hong Kong

This paper draws on theoretical discussions of world cities to analyze socio-spatial polarization and (re-)distribution of deprived groups in Hong Kong in the 2000s. Intensifying global economic restructuring processes have induced socio-economic polarization, thereby producing deprived groups although the spatial outcomes may depend on the city-specific context. When local policies do not counteract the polarization trend, a spatial manifestation of widening socio-economic gaps can be expected. Intensified pro-growth policies adopted since Hong Kong’s return to Chinese rule in 1997 and during its economic recession in the early 2000s have worsened the impact of globalization-induced socio-economic and spatial restructuring. Census data from 2001 and 2011 show increasingly differentiated socio-economic profiles at the district level. The analysis offered in this study also points to a decreased socially mixed society in 2011 when the deprived groups lived in districts with less presence of the advantaged population.     

Assessment of long‐term Holocene soil erosion rates in Polish loess areas using sedimentary archives from closed depressions

Soil erosion is a particularly important problem in the loess areas of Central Europe. Numerous studies of past and present soil erosion based on colluvial sediments have so far been conducted. The main problem is the fact that colluvia usually do not represent the complete sedimentation record. Closed depressions (CDs) collect all colluvial sediments from their catchment, therefore, constitute sediment stores enabling the calculation of soil erosion rates. Colluvial sediments and fossil soils, infilling four CDs in the Polish loess belt, were OSL and C‐14 dated. Human settlements near the studied CDs were analyzed. Phases of soil erosion and colluviation from the Neolithic (5400–2900 bc ), from the Middle Bronze Age to the Early Iron Age (1600–0 bc ), and from the Early Middle Ages to Modern Times (500 AD until today) were documented within the CDs studied. Phases of low soil erosion rate and pedogenesis occurred from the Late Vistulian to the Early Neolithic and from the Iron Age to Early Middle Ages. This study reveals that these phases are not synchronous with the soil erosion phases in Central Europe, as the latter mainly occurred in the Bronze Age, Roman Period and Middle Ages. The obtained soil erosion rates were compared with erosion rates in different areas of Central Europe. This study indicates that in loess regions with long‐term agricultural land use, mean erosion rates (i.e. 3.7–5.9 t ha^‐1 yr^‐1) from the Middle Ages to Modern Times were ten times higher than during the entire prehistoric period (0.39–0.67 t ha^‐1 yr^‐1). The mean soil erosion rates for forested CDs was 0.24–0.74 t ha^‐1 yr^‐1. Soil erosion phases are most probably caused by human activities (i.e. land use change) but the early Holocene erosion phase (7.96 +/‐ 0.67 kyr) could have been induced by a climatic fluctuation (e.g. a 8.2 kyr Bond event). Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Using Generative Adversarial Networks as a Fast Forward Operator for Hydrogeological Inverse Problems

Subsurface characterization using inverse techniques constitutes one of the fundamental elements of hydrogeological modeling applications. Available methods to solve inverse problems rely on a forward operator that predicts state variables for a given set of subsurface parameters. As the number of model parameters to be estimated increases, forward operations incur a significant computational demand. In this paper, we investigate the use of conditional generative adversarial networks (cGAN) as an emulator for the forward operator in the context of a hydrogeological inverse problem. We particularly investigate if the cGAN can be used to replace the forward operator used in the adaptive importance sampling method posterior population expansion (PoPEx) with reasonable accuracy and feasible computation requirement. The cGAN model trained on channelized geological structures has shown that the cGAN is able to reproduce the state variables corresponding to a certain parameter field. Hence, its integration in PoPEx yielded satisfactory results. In terms of the computational demand, the use of cGAN as a surrogate forward model reduces the required computational time up to 80% for the problem defined in the study. However, the training time required to create a model seems to be the major drawback of the method.     

Time changes of the potential Love tidal parameters k2 and k3

The planet Earth is continuously changing in time, so there are phenomena that require continuous observation, including tidal parameters. The main goal of this study is to analyze time changes of the Love potential tidal parameters. This paper concerns an analysis of the estimated Love numbers k for the second and the third degree tides (numbers k₂ and k₃), associated with the tide variations of the satellite motion. The measured data used for determining the parameters k₂, k₃ were conducted within the period of January 1, 2014 until July 1, 2016 by LAGEOS-1 and LAGEOS-2 satellites. The results were compared with our previous determination of these parameters from LAGEOS data during the period from January 1, 2005 until July 1, 2007 to examine whether any systematic differences and time evolution occur. The adjusted values for k₂ equalling 0.29842 ± 0.00008 and k₃ equalling 0.0901 ± 0.0034 are discussed and compared with the nominal values given in International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service standards. The differences between the k₂ and k₃ values obtained for the time interval 2005.0–2007.5 and the results for 2014.0–2016.5 interval are –0.00288 for k₂ and 0.0042 for k₃. The obtained differences in the k₂ and k₃ values may indicate their evolution in time.     

Large wood clogging during floods in a gravel‐bed river: the Długopole bridge in the Czarny Dunajec River,Poland

During floods, large quantities of wood can be mobilized and transported downstream. At critical sections, such as bridges, the transported wood might be entrapped and a quick succession of backwater effects can occur as a result of the reduction of the cross‐sectional area. The aim of this work is to explore large wood‐related hazards during floods in the gravel‐bed river Czarny Dunajec (Polish Carpathians), where the river flows through the village of D?ugopole. This work is based on the numerical modelling of large wood transport together with flow dynamics in which inlet and boundary conditions were designed based on field observations. The exploratory approach developed in this study uses multiple scenarios (193) to analyse the factors controlling bridge clogging: wood size, wood supply, flow conditions, morphology and obstacles in the riverbed. Results highlighted the strong control of log length (stronger than that of log diameter) on potential blockage probability; however, according to our results the main factor controlling bridge clogging was the flood discharge. River morphology and wood supply play an important role as well. The river morphology may reduce bridge blockage, as it influences flow velocity and depth, and creates natural retention zones for wood. In addition, the impacts of bridge blockage were analysed in terms of afflux depth and length, and flooded area. Results showed that bridge blockage may result in a significant increase in water depth (up to 0.7 m) and flooded area (up to 33% more), therefore increasing flood risk in the village. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Application of the Unified Stream Assessment Method to Determine the Direction of Revitalization of Heavily Transformed Urban Rivers

Water Resources - The issues related to the assessment of the hydro morphological status of urban rivers in order to identify the revitalisation actions possible to be carried out, has been...     

A dendroclimatological study of east- and west-facing slopes in mountainous areas subjected to strong air pollution (the Sudetes,Central Europe)

The Sudetes Mountains (Central Europe) were under a particularly intense long-term air pollution load during the 1970s and 1980s. Intense industrial activity in this area led to large-scale forest dieback and reductions in tree growth rates, potentially limiting the use of tree-ring data from this region in dendroclimatic research. In this paper, ring-width chronologies were constructed for 493 Norway spruce trees (Picea abies L. Karst.) from 17 sampling sites within five major mountain ranges in the Sudetes Mountains of Poland. Growth-climate response data indicate that April?July temperatures are the main factor affecting radial growth of trees in the study area. Our data also indicate the strong influence of slope aspect on temperature signal strength. The lowest correlation values were obtained for sites located on western slopes with effective fog deposition, which are strongly affected by pollution. An appropriate sampling strategy resulted in the creation of a temperature-sensitive proxy record (rAMJJ = 0.70), exceptional for areas under strong pressure from human activity. Based on a regional master chronology, growing season (April?July) temperatures over the past 200 years were then reconstructed. Four warm and four cold periods were distinguished and compared with other reconstructions and long-term instrumental data.