Assessing the hydrological and geomorphic behaviour of a landscape evolution model within a limits-of-acceptability uncertainty analysis framework

Landscape evolution models (LEMs) have the capability to characterize key aspects of geomorphological and hydrological processes. However, their usefulness is hindered by model equifinality and paucity of available calibration data. Estimating uncertainty in the parameter space and resultant model predictions is rarely achieved as this is computationally intensive and the uncertainties inherent in the observed data are large. Therefore, a limits-of-acceptability (LoA) uncertainty analysis approach was adopted in this study to assess the value of uncertain hydrological and geomorphic data. These were used to constrain simulations of catchment responses and to explore the parameter uncertainty in model predictions. We applied this approach to the River Derwent and Cocker catchments in the UK using a LEM CAESAR-Lisflood. Results show that the model was generally able to produce behavioural simulations within the uncertainty limits of the streamflow. Reliability metrics ranged from 24.4% to 41.2% and captured the high-magnitude low-frequency sediment events. Since different sets of behavioural simulations were found across different parts of the catchment, evaluating LEM performance, in quantifying and assessing both at-a-point behaviour and spatial catchment response, remains a challenge. Our results show that evaluating LEMs within uncertainty analyses framework while taking into account the varying quality of different observations constrains behavioural simulations and parameter distributions and is a step towards a full-ensemble uncertainty evaluation of such models. We believe that this approach will have benefits for reflecting uncertainties in flooding events where channel morphological changes are occurring and various diverse (and yet often sparse) data have been collected over such events.     

Long-term observations of the group structure of surface waves in ice

Ocean Dynamics - Several years of surface wave observations in the Chukchi Sea reveal wave groups are a common feature in open water and ice-covered conditions. The strength of the groupiness, here...     

Large Dust Grains Around Cometary Nuclei

Large amounts of particles ejected from the nucleus surface are present in the vicinity of the cometary nuclei when comets are near the Sun (at heliocentric distances ≤2 AU). The largest dust grains ejected may constitute a hazard for spatial vehicles. We tried to obtain the bounded orbits of those particles and to investigate their stability along several orbital periods. The model includes the solar and the cometary gravitational forces and the solar radiation pressure force. The nucleus is assumed to be spherical. The dust grains are also assumed to be spherical, and radially ejected. We include the effects of centrifugal forces owing to the comet rotation. An expression for the most heavy particles that can be lifted is proposed. Using the usual values adopted for the case of Halley’s comet, the largest grains that can be lifted have a diameter about 5 cm, and the term due to the rotation is negligible. However, that term increases the obtained value for the maximum diameter of the lifted grain in a significant amount when the rotation period is of the order of a few hours.     

Evaporation from seasonally frozen bare and vegetated ground at various groundwater table depths in the Ordos Basin,Northwest China

In cold climates, the process of freezing–thawing significantly affects the ground surface heat balance and water balance. To better understand the mechanism of evaporation from seasonally frozen soils, we performed field experiments at different water table depths on vegetated and bare ground in a semiarid region in China. Soil moisture and temperature, air temperature, precipitation, and water table depths were measured over a 5‐month period (November 1, 2016, to March 14, 2017). The evaporation, which was calculated by a mass balance method, was high in the periods of thawing and low in the periods of freezing. Increased water table depth in the freezing period led to high soil moisture in the upper soil layer, whereas lower initial groundwater levels during freezing–thawing decreased the cumulative evaporation. The extent of evaporation from the bare ground was the same in summer as in winter. These results indicate that a noteworthy amount of evaporation from the bare ground is present during freezing–thawing. Finally, the roots of Salix psammophila could increase the soil temperature. This study presents an insight into the joint effects of soil moisture, temperature, ground vegetation, and water table depths on the evaporation from seasonally frozen soils. Furthermore, it also has important implications for water management in seasonally frozen areas.     

Catchment properties,function, and conceptual model representation: is there a correspondence?

This study investigates the possible correspondence between catchment structure, as represented by perceptual hydrological models developed from fieldwork investigations, and mathematical model structures, selected on the basis of reproducing observed catchment hydrographs. Three Luxembourgish headwater catchments are considered, where previous fieldwork suggested distinct flow‐generating mechanisms and hydrological dynamics. A set of lumped conceptual model structures are hypothesized and implemented using the SUPERFLEX framework. Following parameter calibration, the model performance is examined in terms of predictive accuracy, quantification of uncertainty, and the ability to reproduce the flow–duration curve signature. Our key research question is whether differences in the performance of the conceptual model structures can be interpreted based on the dominant catchment processes suggested from fieldwork investigations. For example, we propose that the permeable bedrock and the presence of multiple aquifers in the Huewelerbach catchment may explain the superior performance of model structures with storage elements connected in parallel. Conversely, model structures with serial connections perform better in the Weierbach and Wollefsbach catchments, which are characterized by impermeable bedrock and dominated by lateral flow. The presence of threshold dynamics in the Weierbach and Wollefsbach catchments may favour nonlinear models, while the smoother dynamics of the larger Huewelerbach catchment were suitably reproduced by linear models. It is also shown how hydrologically distinct processes can be effectively described by the same mathematical model components. Major research questions are reviewed, including the correspondence between hydrological processes at different levels of scale and how best to synthesize the experimentalist's and modeller's perspectives. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Evolution of the seismic activity from the 1982 eruption of El Chichon Volcano, Chiapas, Mexico

 We analyzed more than 1700 earthquakes related to the 1982 eruption of El Chichon volcano in southern Mexico. The data were recorded at specific periods throughout the whole eruptive interval of March to April 1982, by three different networks. The seismic activity began several months before the first eruption on 28 March. During this period the seismicity consisted of hybrid and long-period shallow earthquakes most likely related to processes of faulting, fracturing, and fluid movement underneath the volcano. The foci of events occurring before the eruption circumscribe an aseismic zone from approximately 7 to 13 km below the volcano. After the eruption, the seismic activity consisted of tectonic-type earthquakes that peaked at 1200 events/h. This later activity occurred over a wide range of depths, mostly between 5 and 20 km, that includes the former aseismic zone and is roughly limited by the major tectonic faults in the area. Received: 19 May 1998 / Accepted: 13 June 1999     

Early Jurassic palaeoenvironments in the Surat Basin,Australia – marine incursion into eastern Gondwana

Interpretations of palaeodepositional environments are important for reconstructing Earth history. Only a few maps showing the Jurassic depositional environments in eastern Australia currently exist. Consequently, a detailed understanding of the setting of Australia in Gondwana is lacking. Core, wireline logs, two-dimensional and three-dimensional seismic from the Precipice Sandstone and Evergreen Formation in the Surat Basin have been used to construct maps showing the evolution of depositional environments through the Early Jurassic. The results indicate the succession consists of three third-order sequences (Sequence 1 to Sequence 3) that were controlled by eustatic sea level. The lowstand systems tract in Sequence 1 comprises braidplain deposits, confined to a fairway that parallels the basin centre. The strata were initially deposited in two sub-basins, with rivers flowing in different orientations in each sub-basin. The transgressive systems tract of Sequence 1 to lowstand systems tract of Sequence 3 is dominated by fluvio–deltaic systems infilling a single merged basin centre. Finally, the transgressive and highstand systems tracts of Sequence 3 show nearshore environments depositing sediment into a shallow marine basin. In the youngest part of this interval, ironstone shoals are the most conspicuous facies, the thickness and number of which increase towards the north and east. This study interprets a corridor to the open ocean through the Clarence–Moreton Basin, or the Carpentaria and Papuan basins, evidence of which has been eroded. These results challenge a commonly held view that eastern Australia was not influenced by eustasy, and propose a more dynamic palaeogeographic setting comprising a mixture of fluvial, deltaic and shallow marine sedimentary environments. This work can be used to unravel the stratigraphic relationships between Mesozoic eastern Australian basins, or in other basins globally as an analogue for understanding the complex interplay of paralic depositional systems in data poor areas.     

Redundant and Nonredundant Information for Model Calibration or Hydraulic Tomography

Drawdown data from independent pumping tests have widely been used to validate the estimated hydraulic parameters from inverse modeling or hydraulic tomography (HT). Yet, the independent pumping test has not been clearly defined. Therefore, the goal of this paper is to define this independent pumping test concept, based on the redundant or nonredundant information about aquifer heterogeneity embedded in the observed heads during cross-hole pumping tests. The definition of complete, moderate redundancy and high nonredundancy of information are stipulated using cross-correlation analysis of the relationship between the head and heterogeneity. Afterward, data from numerical experiments and field sequential pumping test campaigns reinforce the concept and the definition.