Climatic Change, Wars and Dynastic Cycles in China Over the Last Millennium

In recent years, the phenomenon of global warming and its implications for the future of the human race have been intensively studied. In contrast, few quantitative studies have been attempted on the notable effects of past climatic changes upon human societies. This study explored the relationship between climatic change and war in China by comparing high-resolution paleo-climatic reconstructions with known war incidences in China in the last millennium. War frequencies showed a cyclic pattern that closely followed the global paleo-temperature changes. Strong and significant correlations were found between climatic change, war occurrence, harvest level, population size and dynastic transition. During cold phases, China suffered more often from frequent wars, population decline and dynastic changes. The quantitative analyses suggested that the reduction of thermal energy input during a cold phase would lower the land carrying capacity in the traditional agrarian society, and the population size, with significant accretions accrued in the previous warm phase, could not be sustained by the shrinking resource base. The stressed human-nature relationship generated a ‘push force’, leading to more frequent wars between states, regions and tribes, which could lead to the collapse of dynasties and collapses of human population size. War frequencies varied according to geographical locations (North, Central and South China) due to spatial variations in the physical environment and hence differential response to climatic change. Moreover, war occurrences demonstrated an obvious time lag after an episode of temperature fall, and the three geographical regions experienced different length of time lags. This research also shows that human population increases and collapses were correlated with the climatic phases and the social instabilities that were induced by climate changes during the last millennium. The findings proposed a new interpretation of human-nature relationship in the past, with implications for the impacts of anomalous global warming on future human conflicts.     

Study of the Probability Density Functions From a Large-Eddy Simulation for a Stably Stratified Boundary Layer

Turbulence in a non-strongly stably stratified large-eddy simulation (LES) case is studied through probability density functions (PDFs) to obtain additional information than that provided by classical LES averages. The PDFs are computed for one hour within the steady-state regime at three different levels: near the surface, in the middle and at the top of the boundary layer, for the wind components and the temperature. The physical significance of these PDFs from LES is discussed and they are compared to those obtained from observations. The analysis of the eddy structures within the stably stratified boundary layer is made through the combined study of the fields, the spectra and the statistical moments obtained from the PDFs and joint PDFs. The homogeneity of the fields is inspected through a comparison of the ensemble to the temporal and the spatial PDFs, showing that the ergodic theorem is not fulfilled. To this end, the sensitivity of the PDF moments to the LES resolution is explored.     

Binary upscaling—the role of connectivity and a new formula

Although recognized as important, measures of connectivity (i.e. the existence of high-conductivity paths that increase flow and allow for early solute arrival) have not yet been incorporated into methods for upscaling hydraulic conductivities of porous media. We present and evaluate a binary upscaling formula that utilizes connectivity information. The upscaled hydraulic conductivity (K) of binary media is determined as a function of the proportions and conductivities of the two materials, the geometry of the inclusions, and the mean distance between them. The use of a phase interchange theorem renders the formula equally applicable to two-dimensional media with inclusions of low K and high K as compared with the matrix. The new upscaling formula is tested on two-dimensional binary random fields spanning a broad range of spatial correlation structures and conductivity contrasts. The computed effective conductivities are compared to what is obtained using self-consistent effective medium theory, the coated ellipsoids approximation, and to a streamline approach. It is shown that, although simple, the proposed formula performs better than available methods for binary upscaling. The use of connectivity information leads to significantly improved behavior close to the percolation threshold. The proposed upscaling formula depends exclusively on parameters that are obtainable from field investigations.     

Emplacement of subaerial pahoehoe lava sheet flows into water: 1990 Kūpaianaha flow of Kilauea volcano at Kaimū Bay, Hawai`i

Episode 48 of the ongoing eruption of Kilauea, Hawai`i, began in July 1986 and continuously extruded lava for the next 5.5 years from a low shield, Kūpaianaha. The flows in March 1990 headed for Kalapana and inundated the entire town under 15–25 m of lava by the end of August. As the flows advanced eastward, they entered into Kaimū Bay, replacing it with a plain of lava that extends 300 m beyond the original shoreline. The focus of our study is the period from August 1 to October 31, 1990, when the lava buried almost 406,820 m² of the 5-m deep bay. When lava encountered the sea, it flowed along the shoreline as a narrow primary lobe up to 400 m long and 100 m wide, which in turn inflated to a thickness of 5–6 m. The flow direction of the primary lobes was controlled by the submerged delta below the lavas and by damming up lavas fed at low extrusion rates. Breakout flows through circumferential and axial inflation cracks on the inflating primary lobes formed smaller secondary lobes, burying the lows between the primary lobes and hiding their original outlines. Inflated flow lobes eventually ruptured at proximal and/or distal ends as well as mid-points between the two ends, feeding new primary lobes which were emplaced along and on the shore side of the previously inflated lobes. The flow lobes mapped with the aid of aerial photographs were correlated with daily observations of the growing flow field, and 30 primary flow lobes were dated. Excluding the two repose periods that intervened while the bay was filled, enlargement of the flow field took place at a rate of 2,440–22,640 square meters per day in the bay. Lobe thickness was estimated to be up to 11 m on the basis of cross sections of selected lobes measured using optical measurement tools, measuring tape and hand level. The total flow-lobe volume added in the bay during August 1–October 31 was approximately 3.95 million m³, giving an average supply rate of 0.86 m³/s.     

Quantifying Damage, Saturation and Anisotropy in Cracked Rocks by Inverting Elastic Wave Velocities

Crack damage results in a decrease of elastic wave velocities and in the development of anisotropy. Using non-interactive crack effective medium theory as a fundamental tool, we calculate dry and wet elastic properties of cracked rocks in terms of a crack density tensor, average crack aspect ratio and mean crack fabric orientation from the solid grains and fluid elastic properties. Using this same tool, we show that both the anisotropy and shear-wave splitting of elastic waves can be derived. Two simple crack distributions are considered for which the predicted anisotropy depends strongly on the saturation, reaching up to 60% in the dry case. Comparison with experimental data on two granites, a basalt and a marble, shows that the range of validity of the non-interactive effective medium theory model extends to a total crack density of approximately 0.5, considering symmetries up to orthorhombic. In the isotropic case, Kachanov's (1994) non-interactive effective medium model was used in order to invert elastic wave velocities and infer both crack density and aspect ratio evolutions. Inversions are stable and give coherent results in terms of crack density and aperture evolution. Crack density variations can be interpreted in terms of crack growth and/or changes of the crack surface contact areas as cracks are being closed or opened respectively. More importantly, the recovered evolution of aspect ratio shows an exponentially decreasing aspect ratio (and therefore aperture) with pressure, which has broader geophysical implications, in particular on fluid flow. The recovered evolution of aspect ratio is also consistent with current mechanical theories of crack closure. In the anisotropic cases—both transverse isotropic and orthorhombic symmetries were considered—anisotropy and saturation patterns were well reproduced by the modelling, and mean crack fabric orientations we recovered are consistent with in situ geophysical imaging. Our results point out that: (1) It is possible to predict damage, anisotropy and saturation in terms of a crack density tensor and mean crack aspect ratio and orientation; (2) using well constrained wave velocity data, it is possible to extrapolate the contemporaneous evolution of crack density, anisotropy and saturation using wave velocity inversion as a tool; 3) using such an inversion tool opens the door in linking elastic properties, variations to permeability.     

A parallelizable method for two‐phase flows in naturally‐fractured reservoirs

A parallelizable, semi‐implicit numerical method is proposed for the study of naturally‐fractured reservoir systems. It has proved to be computationally efficient in producing accurate numerical solutions for the dual‐porosity model for immiscible, two‐phase flow in such reservoirs. The method combines hybridized mixed finite elements, a new version of the modified method of characteristics, a sophisticated operator‐splitting procedure for separating the pressure calculation in the fractures from that of the saturation, another operator splitting to handle the interaction of the matrix blocks and the fractures, and domain decomposition iterative procedures for both the pressure and the saturation. It permits moderately long time steps for the pressure and the saturation in the fractures and matrix blocks by using short, inexpensive microsteps to treat the transport portion of the saturation equation in the fractures. This paper is devoted to the formulation of the method and a discussion of numerical results for five‐spot and vertical cross‐section examples.     

The distribution and configuration of tree cover in urban Hong Kong

The urban tree cover of a sample area in Hong Kong, selected for its exceptionally good tree cover that penetrate the built-up matrix, was mapped at 15000 scale using aerial photographs. Distribution and configuration of cover was quantified by systematic line sampling. Sampled segments were assigned to appropriate habitat types, urban zones and land uses. Chi-square analysis was employed to detect associations between some observed pairs. Attributes to characterize tree cover and habitats were proposed. Tree cover was found predominantly on slopes well mixed with the urban matrix. Patches of trees in roadside habitats and offroad open spaces were small and disconnected in rigid geometric patterns. Natural slopes unaffected by urban development supported woodlands at high elevation outside the city boundary. Cover in artificial or natural residual slopes (undeveloped slopes embedded within the urban matrix) showed wide variations. Most of the narrow curvilinear units were oriented along contours and situated between roads and buildings. Cover and segment size increased progressively from coastal reclaimed zones to the upslope lands. Areas of high-density land use had scanty cover; most tree cover was found outside subdivided lots in places of lower density land use. Topographical control of urban morphology, habitat and cover characteristics were evident. The dimension, orientation and connectedness of the largely unplanned residual-slope cover were inadequate as wildlife refuges. The principles and possible applications of island biogeography theory in the urban setting was assessed. The dynamic interaction between urbanization and tree cover was summarized. Potential for neighborhood nature parks should not be wasted. Possibilities to protect and enhance tree cover and mould its configuration in a landscape plan in existing and new urban areas were discussed.     

Internal boundary-layer height formulae — A comparison with atmospheric data

The height of the internal boundary layer (IBL) downwind of a step change in surface roughness is computed using formulae of Elliott (1958), Jackson (1976) and Panofsky and Dutton (1984). The results are compared with neutral-stratification atmospheric data extracted from the set of wind-tunnel and atmospheric data summarized by Jackson (1976) as well as neutral-stratification data presented by Peterson et al. (1979) and new data measured at Cherrywood, Ontario. It is found that the Panofsky-Dutton formulation gives the least root-mean-square (RMS) absolute errors for atmospheric applications.