The need for national deep decarbonization pathways for effective climate policy

Constraining global average temperatures to 2 °C above pre-industrial levels will probably require global energy system emissions to be halved by 2050 and complete decarbonization by 2100. In the nationally orientated climate policy framework codified under the Paris Agreement, each nation must decide the scale and method of their emissions reduction contribution while remaining consistent with the global carbon budget. This policy process will require engagement amongst a wide range of stakeholders who have very different visions for the physical implementation of deep decarbonization. The Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project (DDPP) has developed a methodology, building on the energy, climate and economics literature, to structure these debates based on the following principles: country-scale analysis to capture specific physical, economic and political circumstances to maximize policy relevance, a long-term perspective to harmonize short-term decisions with the long-term objective and detailed sectoral analysis with transparent representation of emissions drivers through a common accounting framework or ‘dashboard’. These principles are operationalized in the creation of deep decarbonization pathways (DDPs), which involve technically detailed, sector-by-sector maps of each country’s decarbonization transition, backcasting feasible pathways from 2050 end points. This article shows how the sixteen DDPP country teams, covering 74% of global energy system emissions, used this method to collectively restrain emissions to a level consistent with the 2 °C target while maintaining development aspirations and reflecting national circumstances, mainly through efficiency, decarbonization of energy carriers (e.g. electricity, hydrogen, biofuels and synthetic gas) and switching to these carriers. The cross-cutting analysis of country scenarios reveals important enabling conditions for the transformation, pertaining to technology research and development, investment, trade and global and national policies.

Policy relevance

In the nation-focused global climate policy framework codified in the Paris Agreement, the purpose of the DDPP and DDPs is to provide a common method by which global and national governments, business, civil society and researchers in each country can communicate, compare and debate differing concrete visions for deep decarbonization in order to underpin the necessary societal and political consensus to design and implement short-term policy packages that are consistent with long-term global decarbonization.     

Upper Ocean Temperatures Hit Record High in 2020

The long-term warming of the ocean is a critical indicator of both the past and present state of the climate system. It also provides insights about the changes to come, owing to the persistence of both decadal variations and secular trends,which the ocean records extremely well(Hansen et al., 2011;IPCC, 2013;Rhein et al., 2013;Trenberth et al., 2016;Abram et al., 2019).     

On the precision and accuracy of IGS orbits

In order to explore the precision and accuracy of International GNSS Service (IGS) orbits, we difference geocentric satellite positions midway between successive daily Final orbits for the period starting 5 November 2006, when the IGS switched its method of antenna calibration, through 31 December 2007. This yields a time series of orbit repeatabilities analogous to the classical geodetic test for position determinations. If we compare our average positional discontinuities to the official IGS accuracy codes, root-sum-squared (RSS) for each pair of days, we find the discontinuities are not well correlated with the predicted performance values. If instead the IGS weighted root-mean-square (WRMS) values from the Final combination long-arc analyses are taken as the measure of IGS accuracy, we find the position differences and long-arc values are correlated, but the long-arc values are exaggerated, particularly around eclipses, despite the fact that our day-boundary position differences apply to a single epoch each day and the long-arc analyses consider variations over a week. Our method is not well suited to probe the extent to which systematic effects dominate over random orbit errors, as indicated by satellite laser ranging residuals, but eclipsing satellites often display the most problematic behavior. A better metric than the current IGS orbit accuracy codes would probably be one based on the orbit discontinuities between successive days.     

Quality assessment of GPS reprocessed terrestrial reference frame

The International GNSS Service (IGS) contributes to the construction of the International Terrestrial Reference Frame (ITRF) by submitting time series of station positions and Earth Rotation Parameters (ERP). For the first time, its submission to the ITRF2008 construction is based on a combination of entirely reprocessed GPS solutions delivered by 11 Analysis Centers (ACs). We analyze the IGS submission and four of the individual AC contributions in terms of the GNSS frame origin and scale, station position repeatability and time series seasonal variations. We show here that the GPS Terrestrial Reference Frame (TRF) origin is consistent with Satellite laser Ranging (SLR) at the centimeter level with a drift lower than 1 mm/year. Although the scale drift compared to Very Long baseline Interferometry (VLBI) and SLR mean scale is smaller than 0.4 mm/year, we think that it would be premature to use that information in the ITRF scale definition due to its strong dependence on the GPS satellite and ground antenna phase center variations. The new position time series also show a better repeatability compared to past IGS combined products and their annual variations are shown to be more consistent with loading models. The comparison of GPS station positions and velocities to those of VLBI via local ties in co-located sites demonstrates that the IGS reprocessed solution submitted to the ITRF2008 is more reliable and precise than any of the past submissions. However, we show that some of the remaining inconsistencies between GPS and VLBI positioning may be caused by uncalibrated GNSS radomes.     

Land-Parcel Land-Use History as a Key to Site Selection for Documenting Soil Contamination Risk： a Case Study from Australian Suburbia

In that orcharding in early-to-mid twentieth century southeastern Australia involved use of certain heavy metal and As compounds in regular pest-control spray procedures, some interest attaches to the possibility that these landparcels are underlain by soils with above-background Cu, Pb and As levels. Interpreta- tion of Land-cover changes allowed land parcels previously occupied by orchards to be identified in the 1950s through time-series air-photos. A comparison of soil analysis results referring to soil samples from control sites, and from land parcels formerly occupied by orchardists, shows that contamination （above-background） levels of cations in the pesticides can be found in the top 6 cm of former orchard soils. It is clear that digital spatial data handling and culturally-informed air photo interpretation has a place in soil contamination studies, land-use planning （with particular reference to re-development） and in administration of public health.     

Catchment properties,function, and conceptual model representation: is there a correspondence?

This study investigates the possible correspondence between catchment structure, as represented by perceptual hydrological models developed from fieldwork investigations, and mathematical model structures, selected on the basis of reproducing observed catchment hydrographs. Three Luxembourgish headwater catchments are considered, where previous fieldwork suggested distinct flow‐generating mechanisms and hydrological dynamics. A set of lumped conceptual model structures are hypothesized and implemented using the SUPERFLEX framework. Following parameter calibration, the model performance is examined in terms of predictive accuracy, quantification of uncertainty, and the ability to reproduce the flow–duration curve signature. Our key research question is whether differences in the performance of the conceptual model structures can be interpreted based on the dominant catchment processes suggested from fieldwork investigations. For example, we propose that the permeable bedrock and the presence of multiple aquifers in the Huewelerbach catchment may explain the superior performance of model structures with storage elements connected in parallel. Conversely, model structures with serial connections perform better in the Weierbach and Wollefsbach catchments, which are characterized by impermeable bedrock and dominated by lateral flow. The presence of threshold dynamics in the Weierbach and Wollefsbach catchments may favour nonlinear models, while the smoother dynamics of the larger Huewelerbach catchment were suitably reproduced by linear models. It is also shown how hydrologically distinct processes can be effectively described by the same mathematical model components. Major research questions are reviewed, including the correspondence between hydrological processes at different levels of scale and how best to synthesize the experimentalist's and modeller's perspectives. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Detecting Changes in Ground Water Quality at Regulated Facilities

The Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (PL 94–580) and related federal and state legislation have mandated routine monitoring of ground water quality at regulated facilities. The objective of the required monitoring activities is detection of adverse changes in ground water quality caused by the facilities.
Both failure to detect pollution and an incorrect determination of pollution can be very expensive. It is crucial, therefore, that monitoring programs be designed and operated to provide statistically sound information. It is equally important that users of ground water quality data understand the nature and limitations of information from monitoring.
To address the preceding issues, the authors present a general approach to analyzing ground water quality data in light of the stated monitoring objective. The suggested approach accounts for "natural" variation in background water quality through pairing of observations. The limitations of quarterly sampling for detecting small changes in quality over a short time frame are discussed.     

Comparison of heat and bromide as ground water tracers near streams

Heat and bromide were compared as tracers for examining stream/ground water exchanges along the middle reaches of the Santa Clara River, California, during a 10-hour surface water sodium bromide injection test. Three cross sections that comprise six shallow (<1 m) piezometers were installed at the upper, middle, and lower sections of a 17 km long study reach, to monitor temperatures and bromide concentrations in the shallow ground water beneath the stream. A heat and ground water transport simulation model and a closely related solute and ground water transport simulation model were matched up for comparison of simulated and observed temperatures and bromide concentrations in the streambed. Vertical, one-dimensional simulations of sediment temperature were fitted to observed temperature results, to yield apparent streambed hydraulic conductivities in each cross section. The temperature-based hydraulic conductivities were assigned to a solute and ground water transport model to predict sediment bromide concentrations, during the sodium bromide injection test. Vertical, one-dimensional simulations of bromide concentrations in the sediments yielded a good match to the observed bromide concentrations, without adjustment of any model parameters except solute dispersivities. This indicates that, for the spatial and temporal scales examined on the Santa Clara River, the use of heat and bromide as tracers provide comparable information with respect to apparent hydraulic conductivities and fluxes for sediments near streams. In other settings, caution should be used due to differences in the nature of conservative (bromide) versus nonconservative (heat) tracers, particularly when preferential flowpaths are present.     

Assessing the hydrological and geomorphic behaviour of a landscape evolution model within a limits-of-acceptability uncertainty analysis framework

Landscape evolution models (LEMs) have the capability to characterize key aspects of geomorphological and hydrological processes. However, their usefulness is hindered by model equifinality and paucity of available calibration data. Estimating uncertainty in the parameter space and resultant model predictions is rarely achieved as this is computationally intensive and the uncertainties inherent in the observed data are large. Therefore, a limits-of-acceptability (LoA) uncertainty analysis approach was adopted in this study to assess the value of uncertain hydrological and geomorphic data. These were used to constrain simulations of catchment responses and to explore the parameter uncertainty in model predictions. We applied this approach to the River Derwent and Cocker catchments in the UK using a LEM CAESAR-Lisflood. Results show that the model was generally able to produce behavioural simulations within the uncertainty limits of the streamflow. Reliability metrics ranged from 24.4% to 41.2% and captured the high-magnitude low-frequency sediment events. Since different sets of behavioural simulations were found across different parts of the catchment, evaluating LEM performance, in quantifying and assessing both at-a-point behaviour and spatial catchment response, remains a challenge. Our results show that evaluating LEMs within uncertainty analyses framework while taking into account the varying quality of different observations constrains behavioural simulations and parameter distributions and is a step towards a full-ensemble uncertainty evaluation of such models. We believe that this approach will have benefits for reflecting uncertainties in flooding events where channel morphological changes are occurring and various diverse (and yet often sparse) data have been collected over such events.