Nationally Determined Contributions under the Paris Agreement and the costs of delayed action

Current country-level commitments under the Paris Agreement fall short of putting the world on a required trajectory to stay below a 2°C temperature increase compared to pre-industrial levels by the end of the century. Therefore, the timing of increased ambition is hugely important and as such this paper analyses the impact of both the short and long-term goals of the Paris Agreement on global emissions and economic growth. Using the hybrid TIAM-UCL-MSA model we consider the achievement of a 2°C target against a baseline of the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) while also considering the timing of increased ambition of the NDCs by 2030 and the impacts of cost reductions of key low-carbon technologies. We find that the rate of emissions reduction ambition required between 2030 and 2050 is almost double when the NDCs are achieved but not ratcheted up until 2030, and leads to lower levels of economic growth throughout the rest of the century. However, if action is taken immediately and is accompanied by increasingly rapid low-carbon technology cost reductions, then there is almost no difference in GDP compared to the path suggested by the current NDC commitments.

Key policy insights

• Delaying the additional action needed to achieve the 2°C target until 2030 is shown to require twice the rate of emissions reductions between 2030 and 2050.

• Total cumulative GDP over the century is lower when additional action is delayed to 2030 and therefore has an overall negative impact on the economy, even without including climate change damages.

• Increased ratcheting of the NDC commitments should therefore be undertaken sooner rather than later, starting in conjunction with the 2023 Global Stocktake.

• Early action combined with cost reductions in key renewable energy technologies can reduce GDP losses to minimal levels (<1%).

• A 2°C future with technological advancements is clearly possible for a similar cost as a 3.3°C world without these advances, but with lower damages and losses from climate change.

     

Breaking waves in deep water: measurements and modeling of energy dissipation

Ocean Dynamics - In the presence of strong winds, ocean surface waves dissipate significant amounts of energy by breaking. Here, breaking rates and wave-following turbulent dissipation rate...     

The 2010/2011 Canterbury earthquakes: context and cause of injury

The aim of this study was to investigate causes of injury during the 2010/2011 Canterbury earthquakes. Data on patients injured during the Darfield (4 September 2010) and Christchurch (22 February 2011) earthquakes were sourced from the New Zealand Accident Compensation Corporation. The total injury burden was analyzed for demography, context of injury, causes of injury, and injury type. Injury context was classified as direct (shaking of the primary earthquake or aftershocks causing unavoidable injuries), action (movement of person during the primary earthquake or aftershocks causing potentially avoidable injuries), and secondary (cause of injury after shaking ceased). Nine categories of injury cause were identified. Three times as many people were injured in the Christchurch earthquake as in the Darfield earthquake (7,171 vs. 2,256). The primary shaking caused approximately two-thirds of the injuries from both quakes. Actions during the primary shaking and aftershocks led to many injuries (51.3 % Darfield and 19.4 % Christchurch). Primary direct caused the highest proportion of injuries during the daytime Christchurch quake (43.6 %). Many people were injured after shaking stopped in both events: 499 (22.1 % Darfield) and 1,881 (26.2 % Christchurch). Most of these people were injured during clean-up (320 (14.2 %) Darfield; 622 (8.7 %) Christchurch). In both earthquakes, more females than males (1,453 vs. 803 Darfield; 4,646 vs. 2,525 Christchurch) were injured (except by masonry, damaged ground, and during clean-up); trip/fall (27.9 % Darfield; 26.1 % Christchurch) was the most common cause of injury; and soft tissue injuries (74.1 % Darfield; 70.4 % Christchurch) was the most common type of injury. This study demonstrated that where people were and their actions during and after earthquakes influenced their risk of injury.     

Laboratory Experiments on Convective Entrainment Using a Saline Water Tank

Entrainment fluxes in a shear-free convective boundary layer have been measured with a saline water tank set-up. The experiments were targeted towards measuring the entrainment behaviour for medium to high Richardson numbers and use a two-layer design, i.e. two stacked non-stratified (neutral) layers with different densities. With laser induced fluorescence (LIF), the entrainment flux of a fluorescent dye is measured for bulk Richardson numbers in the range 30–260. It is proposed that a carefully chosen combination of top-down and bottom-up processes improves the accuracy of LIF-based entrainment observations. The observed entrainment fluxes are about an order of magnitude lower than reported for thermal water tanks: the derived buoyancy entrainment ratio, $A$ , is found to be $A \approx 0.02$ , which is to be compared with $A\approx 0.25$ for a thermal convection tank (Deardorff et al., J Fluid Mech 100:41–64, 1980). An extensive discussion is devoted to the influence of the Reynolds and Prandtl numbers in laboratory experiments on entrainment.     

Is there a common pattern of future gas-phase air pollution in Europe under diverse climate change scenarios?

Climate change alone influences future levels of tropospheric ozone and their precursors through modifications of gas-phase chemistry, transport, removal, and natural emissions. The goal of this study is to determine at what extent the modes of variability of gas-phase pollutants respond to different climate change scenarios over Europe. The methodology includes the use of the regional modeling system MM5 (regional climate model version)-CHIMERE for a target domain covering Europe. Two full-transient simulations covering from 1991–2050 under the SRES A2 and B2 scenarios driven by ECHO-G global circulation model have been compared. The results indicate that the spatial patterns of variability for tropospheric ozone are similar for both scenarios, but the magnitude of the change signal significantly differs for A2 and B2. The 1991–2050 simulations share common characteristics for their chemical behavior. As observed from the NO₂ and α-pinene modes of variability, our simulations suggest that the enhanced ozone chemical activity is driven by a number of parameters, such as the warming-induced increase in biogenic emissions and, to a lesser extent, by the variation in nitrogen dioxide levels. For gas-phase pollutants, the general increasing trend for ozone found under A2 and B2 forcing is due to a multiplicity of climate factors, such as increased temperature, decreased wet removal associated with an overall decrease of precipitation in southern Europe, increased photolysis of primary and secondary pollutants as a consequence of lower cloudiness and increased biogenic emissions fueled by higher temperatures.     

Vertical Structure Of Turbulence In Offshore Flow During Rasex

The adjustment of the boundary layer immediately downstream froma coastline is examined based on two levels of eddy correlation data collected on a mast at the shore and six levels of eddy correlation data and profiles of mean variables collected from a mast 2 km offshore during the Risø Air-Sea Experiment. The characteristics of offshore flow are studied in terms of case studies and inter-variable relationships for the entire one-month data set. A turbulent kinetic energy budget is constructed for each case study.The buoyancy generation of turbulence is small compared to shear generation and dissipation. However, weakly stable and weakly unstable cases exhibit completely different vertical structure. With flow of warm air from land over cooler water, modest buoyancy destruction of turbulence and reduced shear generation of turbulence over the less rough sea surface cause the turbulence to rapidly weaken downstream from the coast. The reduction of downward mixing of momentum by the stratification leads to smaller roughness lengths compared to the unstable case. Shear generation at higher levels and advection of stronger turbulence from land often lead to an increase of stress and turbulence energy with height and downward transport of turbulence energy toward the surface.With flow of cool air over a warmer sea surface, a convective internal boundary layer develops downstream from the coast. An overlying relatively thick layer of downward buoyancy flux (virtual temperature flux) is sometimes maintained by shear generation in the accelerating offshore flow.     

Evaluation of the controls affecting the quality of spatial data derived from historical aerial photographs

This paper is concerned with the fundamental controls affecting the quality of data derived from historical aerial photographs typically used in geomorphological studies. A short review is provided of error sources introduced into the photogrammetric workflow. Data‐sets from two case‐studies provided a variety of source data and hence a good opportunity to evaluate the influence of the quality of archival material on the accuracy of coordinated points. Based on the statistical weights assigned to the measurements, precision of the data was estimated a priori, while residuals of independent checkpoints provided an a posteriori measure of data accuracy. Systematic discrepancies between the two values indicated that the routinely used stochastic model was incorrect and overoptimistic. Optimized weighting factors appeared significantly larger than previously used (and accepted) values. A test of repeat measurements explained the large uncertainties associated with the use of natural objects for ground control. This showed that the random errors not only appeared to be much larger than values accepted for appropriately controlled and targeted photogrammetric networks, but also small undetected gross errors were induced through the ‘misidentification’ of points. It is suggested that the effects of such ‘misidentifications’ should be reflected in the stochastic model through selection of more realistic weighting factors of both image and ground measurements. Using the optimized weighting factors, the accuracy of derived data can now be more truly estimated, allowing the suitability of the imagery to be judged before purchase and processing. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

An integrated water balance model for assessing water scarcity in a data-sparse interfluve in eastern India

Abstract

The objective of this study is to measure the balance of water demand versus water resource availability in an interfluve of West Bengal, India to support water resource planning, particularly of inter-basin transfers. Surface water availability was modelled using the US Soil Conservation Service curve number (SCS-CN) approach, whilst groundwater availability was modelled based on water-level fluctuations and the rainfall infiltration method. Water use was modelled separately for the agricultural, industrial, and domestic sectors using a predominantly normative approach and water use to availability ratios calculated for different administrative areas within the interfluve. Overall, the approach suggested that the interfluve receives 327 × 10⁶ m³ year^-1 of excess water after satisfying these sectoral demands, but that the eastern part of the study area is in deficit. However, a sensitivity analysis carried on the approach to several assumptions in the model suggested changed circumstances would produce surplus/deficit ranging from ?215 × 10⁶ to 435 × 10⁶ m³ year^-1 . The approach could have potential for localised water balance modelling in other Indian catchments.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor D. Hughes     

Embedding isochronous cells overland flow module into MODFLOW

This study integrates a simple overland flow module (isochronous cells model) with the river module of MODFLOW such that temporal and spatial interactions between stream flow and groundwater can be simulated using net rainfall data of a watershed. The isochronous cells model is an efficient travel time runoff approach based on geographic information system (GIS) that considers both spatial and temporal variations of net rainfall through hill slope of the watershed. This overland module is easily coupled with MODFLOW river routing module. Specifically, the stream flow from the isochronous cells model is directly assigned to both sides of river cells of the MODFLOW model. Such an integration of MODFLOW and isochronous cells model is especially useful in watersheds where river flow data are limited. The feasibility of this integrated model was demonstrated using a case study in the middle and downstream regions of the Yitong River watershed, China. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Discrete Element Modeling of Stick-Slip Instability and Induced Microseismicity

Using Particle Flow Code, a discrete element model is presented in this paper that allows direct modeling of stick-slip behavior in pre-existing weak planes such as joints, beddings, and faults. The model is used to simulate a biaxial sliding experiment from literature on a saw-cut specimen of Sierra granite with a single fault. The fault is represented by the smooth-joint contact model. Also, an algorithm is developed to record the stick-slip induced microseismic events along the fault. Once the results compared well with laboratory data, a parametric study was conducted to investigate the evolution of the model’s behavior due to varying factors such as resolution of the model, particle elasticity, fault coefficient of friction, fault stiffness, and normal stress. The results show a decrease in shear strength of the fault in the models with smaller particles, smaller coefficient of friction of the fault, harder fault surroundings, softer faults, and smaller normal stress on the fault. Also, a higher rate of displacement was observed for conditions resulting in smaller shear strength. An increase in b-values was observed by increasing the resolution or decreasing the normal stress on the fault, while b-values were not sensitive to changes in elasticity of the fault or its surrounding region. A larger number of recorded events were observed for the models with finer particles, smaller coefficient of friction of the fault, harder fault surroundings, harder fault, and smaller normal stress on the fault. The results suggest that it is possible for the two ends of a fault to be still while there are patches along the fault undergoing stick-slips. Such local stick-slips seem to provide a softer surrounding for their neighbor patches facilitating their subsequent stick-slips.