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Jiani?Tan Yan?ZhangEmail author Weichun?Ma Qi?Yu Qian?Wang Qingyan?Fu Bin?Zhou Jianmin?Chen Limin?Chen 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2017,31(10):2513-2526
The accuracy of atmospheric numerical model is important for the prediction of urban air pollution. This study investigated and quantified the uncertainties of meteorological and air quality model during multi-levels air pollution periods. We simulated the air quality of megacity Shanghai, China with WRF/CMAQ (Weather Research and Forecasting model and Community Multiscale Air Quality model) at both non-pollution and heavy-pollution episodes in 2012. The weather prediction model failed to reproduce the surface temperature and wind speed in condition of high aerosol loading. The accuracy of the air quality model showed a clear dropping tendency from good air quality conditions to heavily polluted episodes. The absolute model bias increased significantly from light air pollution to heavy air pollution for SO2 (from 2 to 14%) and for PM10 (from 1 to 33%) in both urban and suburban sites, for CO in urban sites (from 8 to 48%) and for NO2 in suburban sites (from 1 to 58%). A test of applying the Urban Canopy Model scheme to the WRF model showed fairly good improvement on predicting the meteorology field, but less significant effect on the air pollutants (6% for SO2 and 19% for NO2 decease in model bias found only in urban sites). This study gave clear evidence to the sensitivities of the model performance on the air pollution levels. It is suggested to consider this impact as a source for model bias in the model assessment and make improvement in the model development in the future. 相似文献
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热带气旋的强弱和移动路径会直接影响到周围大气中气压、温度、露点等气象要素的变化.为更好地了解热带气旋对海口市的影响,通过收集影响海口市热带气旋关键因子,建立热带气旋风雨影响预报因子库,基于SVM方法对热带气旋在过程降水量、最大风速和平均温度进行趋势预报.结果表明,该方法对影响海口市热带气旋的过程降水量、最大风速和平均温度都有较好的预测效果,但对于超过15 m/s的最大风速和200 mm以上降水量级上存在一定的偏差,这可能与SVM模式中预报因子库中关键因子不全及模式的择中原理使结果趋于平均化相关. 相似文献
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The Quaternary was the main evaporite deposition period in the Qaidam Basin (QB), but the correlation between the evaporite deposition period and the glacial period is still unclear. In this study, the research objects are primarily evaporite-bearing strata in a 461.58 m-long drill core in the QB. X-ray powder diffraction (XRD) and scanning electron microscopy (SEM) were applied to study the evaporite minerals, U-Th dating being applied to construct the 230Th geochronological framework. Evaporite deposition from Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 15 to MIS 4 in the borehole was reconstructed via mineralogical and geochronological data. The evaporite minerals are mainly halite (NaCl), mirabilite (Na2SO4·10H2O), thenardite (Na2SO4) and gypsum (CaSO4·2H2O). A total of 9 effective 230Th data points, ranging from 492.5 ± 43.0 ka to 62.0 ± 11.9 ka, were obtained. The depositional age of the earliest halite layer in the borehole is 592.5–563.0 ka. There were mirabilite deposits in the QB during the cold glacial environment of MIS 6. During MIS 4, the study area desiccated, with mirabilite and halite being deposited. This study suggests that mirabilite is an indicator mineral for the glacial environment in the QB, while halite deposition does not correspond well to glaciation. 相似文献
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现代酸性矿山废水(AMD)环境被认为是地球早期环境的理想对应物.AMD的水环境具有金属含量高、pH低的特点,这与太古代-早元古代时期海洋的某些环境条件十分类似.然而,尽管AMD的环境条件恶劣,但仍然栖息着非常丰富的原核和真核微生物,在这其中那些嗜酸的、营光合作用的真核微生物类群(特别是Euglena mutabilis)更是引起众多科学家极大的研究兴趣.本文全面概述了在AMD环境中发现的真核微生物Euglenids种群的生物化学、生理学和生物地球化学特征,以及这些特征对于理解生命演化和早期地球环境条件等方面的指示性作用.Euglenids的细胞具备区域化功能,因而具备需氧和厌氧的蜡酯和甾醇的双生物合成途径,同时它们还可以形成生物膜,所有这些均使得Euglenids能够在早期地球极端恶劣的环境条件下生存并持续演化.在AMD酸性环境中发育的富铁叠层石、嗜酸微生物的脂类化合物及其碳同位素比值以及它们独特的生理和生化特征可用于阐述真核生物的演化、地球早期大气中氧气的产生、条带状富铁建造的形成以及地球早期的环境演化等. 相似文献
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杀生剂作为抑菌活性成分,广泛应用于药物、个人护理品、食品、农业及其他多种领域中。大量杀生剂会直接或者随污水处理厂出水进入地表水环境中,威胁人体健康和生态安全。本研究通过对长江中下游地区61个湖泊进行调查,共检出11种杀生剂,包括5种杀菌剂、1种防污剂、3种尼泊金酯类防腐剂和2种消毒剂,总浓度达103 ng/g。其中,多菌灵和尼泊金甲酯的检出率大于50%,分别为100%和96.2%。多菌灵和尼泊金甲酯的平均浓度分别为(1.79±2.76)和(11.4±8.19) ng/g,其他杀生剂的平均浓度均低于1.0 ng/g。与国外许多河流湖泊相比,长江中下游地区湖泊沉积物中杀生剂污染处于中等偏低水平,总杀生剂浓度的平均值为(16.7±14.5) ng/g。氟康唑、咪康唑、三氯生和三氯卡班可能主要来自生活污水,多菌灵和涕必灵主要来自面源污染。尼泊金酯类防腐剂在沉积物中的分布特征与沉积物总有机碳含量密切相关。采用风险商值法对湖泊沉积物中杀生剂的生态风险进行了评价,发现多菌灵、尼泊金甲酯和三氯卡班在部分采样点具有高风险。有必要重点关注高风险污染物和高风险区域,并采取适当的措施来减少杀生剂对湖泊生态环境... 相似文献