Forecasting Copper Prices Using Hybrid Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System and Genetic Algorithms

Natural Resources Research - An accurate forecasting model for the price volatility of minerals plays a vital role in future investments and decisions for mining projects and related companies. In...     

Gaussian decomposition and component pigment spectral analysis of phytoplankton absorption spectra

The absorption spectrum of phytoplankton is an important bio-optical parameter for ocean color hyperspectral remote sensing;its magnitude and shape can be affected considerably by pigment composition and concentration.We conducted Gaussian decomposition to the absorption spectra of phytoplankton pigment and studied the spectral components of the phytoplankton,in which the package effect was investigated using pigment concentration data and phytoplankton absorption spectra.The decomposition results were compared with the corresponding concentrations of the five main pigment groups(chlorophylls a,b,and c,photo-synthetic carotenoids(PSC),and photo-protective carotenoids(PPC)).The results indicate that the majority of residual errors in the Gaussian decomposition are0.001 m~(-1),and R~2 of the power regression between characteristic bands and HPLC pigment concentrations(except for chlorophyll b)was0.65 or greater for surface water samples at autumn cruise.In addition,we determined a strong predictive capability for chlorophylls a,c,PPC,and PSC.We also tested the estimation of pigment concentrations from the empirical specific absorption coefficient of pigment composition.The empirical decomposition showed that the Ficek model was the closest to the original spectra with the smallest residual errors.The pigment decomposition results and HPLC measurements of pigment concentration are in a high consistency as the scatter plots are distributed largely near the 1:1 line in spite of prominent seasonal variations.The Wozniak model showed a better fit than the Ficek model for Chla,and the median relative error was small.The pigment component information estimated from the phytoplankton absorption spectra can help better remote sensing of hyperspectral ocean color that related to the changes in phytoplankton communities and varieties.     

Wavelet analysis and nonparametric test for climate change in Tarim River Basin of Xinjiang during 1959–2006

Using wavelet analysis, regression analysis and the Mann-Kendall test, this paper analyzed time-series (1959–2006) weather data from 23 meteorological stations in an attempt to characterize the climate change in the Tarim River Basin of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, China. Major findings are as follows: 1) In the 48-year study period, average annual temperature, annual precipitation and average annual relative humidity all presented nonlinear trends. 2) At the 16-year time scale, all three climate indices unanimously showed a rather flat before 1964 and a detectable pickup thereafter. At the 8-year time scale, an S-shaped nonlinear and uprising trend was revealed with slight fluctuations in the entire process for all three indices. Incidentally, they all showed similar pattern of a slight increase before 1980 and a noticeable up-swing afterwards. The 4-year time scale provided a highly fluctuating pattern of periodical oscillations and spiral increases. 3) Average annual relative humidity presented a negative correlation with average annual temperature and a positive correlation with annual precipitation at each time scale, which revealed a close dynamic relationship among them at the confidence level of 0.001. 4) The Mann-Kendall test at the 0.05 confidence level demonstrated that the climate warming trend, as represented by the rising average annual temperature, was remarkable, but the climate wetting trend, as indicated by the rising annual precipitation and average annual relative humidity, was not obvious.     

一种基于空时联合约束的相对定位方法

为了降低机动环境对传感器网络自身定位的影响,提出了一种基于空时联合约束的相对定位(STRP)方法.Monte Carlo仿真表明,相对于STF技术,STRP方法降低了环境对定位的影响,自主导航定位的精度提高了36%.     

Sediment texture and grain-size implications: the Changjiang subaqueous delta

Sediment cores were collected from the subaqueous delta of the Changjiang Estuary. Sediment grain-size profiles and their fractal dimensions were analyzed, to elucidate responses to long-term sedimentary processes. In addition, the environmental sensitive populations of grain size have been extracted. The sediment cores can be divided into two parts, according to the sedimentary structures present. The upper part (0-12 cm) is interpreted as being the active layer, which is influenced frequently by changes i...     

亚洲热带气候态夏季风涌传播特征及其对中国降水的影响

基于1979—2020年逐日的NOAA向外长波辐射资料、NCEP/NCAR再分析风场资料,以及全球CMAP再分析降水资料,探讨了气候态亚洲热带夏季风涌的传播过程及与我国夏季相应的降水联系。分析结果表明,主汛期亚洲热带气候态夏季风季节内振荡(CISO)活动是亚洲夏季风活动的主要特征,随时间北传的亚洲热带夏季风CISO称为亚洲热带夏季风涌,主要有南亚夏季风涌和南海夏季风涌。亚洲热带夏季风涌的传播可分为四个阶段。在亚洲热带夏季风涌的发展阶段,印度洋区域低频气旋与对流活跃,孟加拉湾和南海热带区域被低频东风控制,我国大部分地区无降水发生,降水中心位于两广地区。当进入亚洲热带夏季风涌活跃阶段,孟加拉湾和南海热带地区低频气旋和对流活跃,东亚低频“PJ”波列显著,我国降水中心北移到长江以南的附近区域。亚洲热带夏季风涌减弱阶段,孟加拉湾与南海低频气旋消亡,对流减弱,低频西风加强,日本南部附近为低频反气旋控制,我国长江中下游低频南风活跃,降水中心也北移到长江中下游地区,而华南地区已基本无降水,此阶段的大气低频环流场与亚洲热带夏季风涌发展阶段基本相反。进入亚洲热带夏季风涌间歇阶段时,孟加拉湾和南海热带地区低...     

秦皇岛港区春、夏和秋季底栖海藻的研究

报道秦皇岛港区底栖海藻的群落结构、季节变化、生物量及优势种类等。通过４次定性采样指出：４月和６月的种类数高于８月和１０月，群落组成都以红藻类为优势。平均生物量分布以金山咀最高，灯塔最低，各采样点的优势种是新煤码头为绿藻类的孔石莼、肠浒苔和尾孢藻；灯塔为红藻类的珊瑚藻、鸭毛藻及绿藻类的孔石莼和刺松藻，金山咀为孔石莼、刺松藻、萱藻和蜈蚣藻。     

长江口悬沙动力特征与输运模式

本项研究用ADCP在长江河口进行高频、高分辨率三维流速和声学浊度的定点观测,通过对定点站位潮周期内的悬沙浓度、流速和盐度的分析,计算悬沙输运率;悬沙输运机制分析表明平流作用、斯托克斯漂移效应在悬沙输运中占据主导地位.此外,从河口内向河口外,潮周期内的水动力特征与悬沙净输运具有明显的地域性差异,主要表现在悬沙输送的贡献因子、盐度的垂向混合和分布特征、垂向流速等方面.在拦门沙下游和口外地区,悬沙均向西、北方向输送,而拦门沙上游则向东、南方向输送.这种悬沙输运格局,对于长江口拦门沙及附近最大浑浊带的形成有着重要的作用.     

水资源空间分布模型及GIS分析应用

随着社会生产力的持续发展,人类活动范围不断拓宽,不可避免地影响着流域自然水循环过程。因此,在对流域水资源状况进行定量描述时,必须综合考虑自然、人文二元要素的影响。本文选取了近年来水资源短缺和水环境恶化问题严重的京津冀地区为研究对象。根据区内的自然条件和社会发展情况,选取了对水资源空间分布有明显影响的因素。其中距河流远近因素体现了对水资源的开发利用能力;坡度因素代表了土壤的持水能力,对径流和地下水有影响;而土地利用类型因素反映了土壤下垫面的水文特性。通过AHP方法确定上述影响因素的权重,建立水资源空间分布测算模型。根据模型将按流域单元统计的水资源总量数据展布到公里格网上,得到了水资源空间分布结果。最后,通过对空间化水资源数据的分析,剖析了当地的水资源状况,结合"一轴三带"的规划分区思想,对如何进行区域水资源可持续开发利用提出了参考意见。     

鸭绿江河口沉积物元素地球化学及其控制因素

对鸭绿江河口地区的56个站位沉积物的常量元素含量进行了测试,并对测试结果进行了多元统计分析。研究结果表明,多数常量元素含量在鸭绿江西岸潮滩地区和西部海域波动较小,而在上游地区和河口口门地区变动较大,在河口最大浑浊带内出现两个峰值。R型主因子分析结果表明,粒度控制效应对鸭绿江河口地区常量元素的含量分布起着主要作用,贡献方差达76.55%。运用Q型聚类分析将各站位归为两种类型,揭示出沉积动力环境的差异是造成这种常量元素地球化学分区特征的最主要因素。此外,通过与附近河口对比发现鸭绿江河口及近岸地区沉积物中的常量元素含量同朝鲜半岛的河流、中朝准地台花岗岩以及朝鲜半岛花岗岩比较接近,但与长江和黄河有着较大的差异。