中国大陆及邻区大尺度浅源强震空间分布的不均匀性和板块耦合的力学机制

对近代中国大陆及其邻区板内浅源强震空间分布的大尺度不均匀性进行研究，得出：（１）该区存在４个主要的高地震活动区，即华北地震区（３０°～４２°Ｎ）、东南沿海地震区（１９°～２５°Ｎ）、南北地震区（缅甸—中国—蒙古）和中亚地震区（帕米尔—天山—贝加尔湖）；（２）这４个地震区与该区周围板块（欧亚板块与北美—太平洋—菲律宾海—印度板块）之间边界上地震耦合强度大的段落大致垂直；（３）作用于板块边界不同段落上的应力水平差异，可能是中国大陆及其邻区板内近代大尺度强震活动空间分布不均匀性的控制因素     

西南地区前兆震群以及显著地震与区域强震的时空特征

本文系统清理并分析了西南划分的五个预报区[1]中的强震发生前的前兆震群和显著性地震特征。在西南划分的五个预报区中,各区域的前兆震群和显著地震存在共性特征,但又具有明显的区域个性。从共性特征上看,西南划分的五个预报区的前兆震群和显著性地震发生后1-2年可能发生强震,强震一般发生在前兆震群或显著性地震附近地区或相关联构造带上;川滇往往是块体内部构造较复杂的区域,发生的强震会有前兆震群或显著性地震发生。从个性特征上看,西南划分的五个预报区的前兆震群和显著性地震发生与西南地区的地震地质构造具有一定关系,也就是说特殊的构造使得各区域的前兆震群和显著性地震具有明显的个性特征。     

Discussion of Some Problems in the Research into the Seismotectonics of Strong Earthquakes on the North China Plain

The tectonic characteristics and research problems of five earthquakes with M≥7.0 on the North China Plain over the last 300 years are addressed in the paper, including the cognition that there were no ground fractures in the 1966 Xingtai earthquake, the question caused by the thrust activity of the seismic fault of the Tangshan Earthquake and the discussion of the seismotectonic environment of the 1830 Cixian earthquake and the 1937 Heze earthquake. The author thinks that the main reason for the problems in research of strong earthquake tectonics in the region is that the status of activity of the main tectonics during the Late Quaternary are unknown. This affects the founding of discrimination criteria for seismotectonics of strong earthquakes on the North China Plain. Discriminating the Holocene active faults from the large number of faults is the most effective method for seismic hazard assessment in the area in future.     

Statistical features of aftershock distribution size for moderate and large earthquakes in Chinese mainland

Based on data of earthquake sequences with MS≥5.0 in Chinese mainland from 1970 to 2004,for different se-quence types and different rupture modes of the main shock,the relationship between aftershock distribution size Rand the magnitude of the main shock M0 has been studied statistically.Considering the rupture mode of the mainshock,we give the quantitative statistical relationships between R and M0 under 95%confidence level for differentsequence types.Qualitatively,lgR,the logarithm of the aftershock distribution size,is positively correlative to theM0,but the data distribution is dispersed.Viewing from different sequence types,the correlation between R and M0is very weak for isolated earthquake type(IET)sequence,R distributes in the range from 5 to 60 km;For main-shock-aftershock type(MAT),lgR is positively correlative to M0;For multiple main shock type(MMT),the core-lation between lgR and M0 is not very obvious when M0≤6.2 and R distributes in the range from 5 to 70 km,whileit shows a linear correlation when M0≥6.3.The statistical results also show that the occupational ratios of differentsequence types for strike-slip and oblique slip are almost the same.But for dip-slip(mostly are thrust mechanisms),the ratio of MAT is higher than that of IET and MMT.Comparing with previous results,it indicates that,when M0is large enough,R is mainly determined by M0 and there is almost no relationship with the rupture mode of themain shock.     

Paleoenvironment evolution of the East Philippine Sea recorded in the new-type ferromanganese crust since the terminal Late Miocene

From systemic research of microstructure, geochemistry, uranium-series and 10Be isotope dating on a new-type deepwater ferromanganese crust from the East Philippine Sea, the paleoenvironment evolu-tion of the target area since the terminal Late Miocene was recovered. The vertical section changes of microstructure and chemical composition are consistent in the studied crust, which indicate three major accretion periods and corresponding paleoenvironment evolution of the crust. The bottom crust zone was formed in the terminal Late Miocene (5.6 Ma) with loose microstructure, high detritus content and high growth rate. Reductions of mineral element content, accretion rate and positive Ce-anomaly degree at 4.6 Ma indicate temporal warming, which went against the crust accretion and finally formed an accretion gap in the terminal Middle Pliocene (2.8―2.7 Ma). The more active Antarctic bottom sea-waters in the Late Pliocene (2.7 Ma) facilitated the fast transfer to the top pure crust zone. Hereafter, with the further apart of volcanic source and the keeping increase of eolian material (1.0 Ma), although surrounding conditions were still favorable, mineral element content still shows an obvious reducing trend. It thereby offers new carrier and data for the unclear paleoceanographic research of the target area since the terminal Late Miocene.     

A transfer pathway modeling template for radiological environmental risk assessment

As radioactive human doses are calculated through food chain and exposure pathways, it is important to take a pathway analysis to determine all pathway contributions for further radiological environmental risk assessment. A challenge of contaminant fate and environmental pathway analysis is to handle a large number of environmental components and to assign proper calculation models to linked component pairs. This paper presents a model template called transfer pathway model template (TPMT) that stores transfer models to environmental class pairs. When a site-specific calculation scenario is built, a source–receptor transfer matrix (SRTM) is defined by the scenario. Then the calculation loops through all source–receptor component pairs in SRTM and apply proper models stored in TPMT to calculate the transfer factors. TPMT can be used as the component pathway verification template and model allocation template. This structure is used in an environmental risk assessment (ERA) application called IMPACT that has been applied for a number of nuclear power plants and uranium mines in Canada.     

基于地震作用和场地影响确定广东省设计地震动参数

在对《建筑抗震设计规范(GB50011-2001)》和《建筑工程抗震性态设计通则(试用,CECS 160:2004)》研究的基础上,根据广东地区的场地和地震作用特点,确定出了广东省甲、乙、丙类建筑不同设防水准的地震动峰值加速度,以及广东省91个城镇的特征周期分区值,为广东省建筑物抗震设计提供了更加可靠的地震动参数。     

Coupled assimilation for an intermediated coupled ENSO prediction model

The value of coupled assimilation is discussed using an intermediate coupled model in which the wind stress is the only atmospheric state which is slavery to model sea surface temperature (SST). In the coupled assimilation analysis, based on the coupled wind–ocean state covariance calculated from the coupled state ensemble, the ocean state is adjusted by assimilating wind data using the ensemble Kalman filter. As revealed by a series of assimilation experiments using simulated observations, the coupled assimilation of wind observations yields better results than the assimilation of SST observations. Specifically, the coupled assimilation of wind observations can help to improve the accuracy of the surface and subsurface currents because the correlation between the wind and ocean currents is stronger than that between SST and ocean currents in the equatorial Pacific. Thus, the coupled assimilation of wind data can decrease the initial condition errors in the surface/subsurface currents that can significantly contribute to SST forecast errors. The value of the coupled assimilation of wind observations is further demonstrated by comparing the prediction skills of three 12-year (1997–2008) hindcast experiments initialized by the ocean-only assimilation scheme that assimilates SST observations, the coupled assimilation scheme that assimilates wind observations, and a nudging scheme that nudges the observed wind stress data, respectively. The prediction skills of two assimilation schemes are significantly better than those of the nudging scheme. The prediction skills of assimilating wind observations are better than assimilating SST observations. Assimilating wind observations for the 2007/2008 La Niña event triggers better predictions, while assimilating SST observations fails to provide an early warning for that event.     

Seismic response of underground utility tunnels: shaking table testing and FEM analysis

Underground utility tunnels are widely used in urban areas throughout the world for lifeline networks due to their easy maintenance and environmental protection capabilities. However, knowledge about their seismic performance is still quite limited and seismic design procedures are not included in current design codes. This paper describes a series of shaking table tests the authors performed on a scaled utility tunnel model to explore its performance under earthquake excitation. Details of the experimental setup are first presented focusing on aspects such as the design of the soil container, scaled structural model, sensor array arrangement and test procedure. The main observations from the test program, including structural response, soil response, soil-structure interaction and earth pressure, are summarized and discussed. Further, a finite element model (FEM) of the test utility tunnel is established where the nonlinear soil properties are modeled by the Drucker-Prager constitutive model; the master-slave surface mechanism is employed to simulate the soil-structure dynamic interaction; and the confining effect of the laminar shear box to soil is considered by proper boundary modeling. The results from the numerical model are compared with experiment measurements in terms of displacement, acceleration and amplification factor of the structural model and the soil. The comparison shows that the numerical results match the experimental measurements quite well. The validated numerical model can be adopted for further analysis.     

Evaluating the spatiotemporal variations of water budget across China over 1951–2006 using IBIS model

The Integrated Biosphere Simulator is used to evaluate the spatial and temporal patterns of the crucial hydrological variables [run‐off and actual evapotranspiration (AET)] of the water balance across China for the period 1951–2006 including a precipitation analysis. Results suggest three major findings. First, simulated run‐off captured 85% of the spatial variability and 80% of the temporal variability for 85 hydrological gauges across China. The mean relative errors were within 20% for 66% of the studied stations and within 30% for 86% of the stations. The Nash–Sutcliffe coefficients indicated that the quantity pattern of run‐off was also captured acceptably except for some watersheds in southwestern and northwestern China. The possible reasons for underestimation of run‐off in the Tibetan plateau include underestimation of precipitation and uncertainties in other meteorological data due to complex topography, and simplified representations of the soil depth attribute and snow processes in the model. Second, simulated AET matched reasonably with estimated values calculated as the residual of precipitation and run‐off for watersheds controlled by the hydrological gauges. Finally, trend analysis based on the Mann–Kendall method indicated that significant increasing and decreasing patterns in precipitation appeared in the northwest part of China and the Yellow River region, respectively. Significant increasing and decreasing trends in AET were detected in the Southwest region and the Yangtze River region, respectively. In addition, the Southwest region, northern China (including the Heilongjiang, Liaohe, and Haihe Basins), and the Yellow River Basin showed significant decreasing trends in run‐off, and the Zhemin hydrological region showed a significant increasing trend. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.