陂塘景观研究进展与评述

快速城市化背景下,陂塘等小型半自然、人工水体正在大量消失。在综述国内外研究基础上,阐述了陂塘的相关定义、陂塘景观特征及其测度,指出陂塘景观是人们在农耕过程、土地开发过程中充分利用本地的水土资源,应对外部水环境的变化所形成的"水适应性景观"。陂塘景观具有雨洪滞蓄、旱涝调节、水质净化及生物多样性保护等重要的生态功能。在不同发展阶段下,陂塘景观应对的问题不同,景观特征有所差异,演变的总体趋势是从农业时代的水利乡土景观到工业化和城市化带来的破坏,再走向生态自觉下的多功能生态景观;变化趋势也说明了陂塘景观在上述多种生态功能方面的重要潜力。陂塘景观的保护与利用应当建立在对陂塘景观的综合评价的基础之上。最后,对将来可能的研究方向如陂塘景观的特征与功能、历史文化与社会价值、综合评价与应用研究等进行了展望。     

罗霄山区旅游扶贫效应的居民感知与态度研究——以湖南汝城国家森林公园九龙江地区为例

旅游扶贫应立足于贫困人口的获利和发展,其核心是使贫困人口从旅游开发中获得更多的发展机会和净利益。以居民感知理论为基础,对汝城国家森林公园九龙江地区居民进行问卷调查,采用因子分析法和数理统计法,分析当地居民对旅游扶贫效应的感知和态度。研究结果表明:当地居民对旅游扶贫的社会和经济效应感知明显,对环境效应不敏感,参与旅游业的意愿强,但受经济、文化等因素制约,实际参与能力不足。建议当地政府将旅游业培育成特色产业,以居民受益为出发点,对居民进行扶持与引导,鼓励居民参与旅游开发与决策,并注重资源开发与保护相结合,以期实现贫困人口脱贫和旅游发展的双赢。     

西准噶尔蛇绿混杂岩中洋岛玄武岩研究新进展

洋岛玄武岩(OIB)起源研究是当代固体地球岩石学及地球化学最基本问题之一,通常被认为源于地幔柱。西准噶尔位于中亚造山带的西南缘,该地区发育多条蛇绿混杂岩带,主要包括唐巴勒、玛依勒、达尔布特及克拉玛依蛇绿混杂岩带,它们组成相似,主要为蛇纹岩、蛇纹石化方辉橄榄岩、二辉橄榄岩、纯橄岩、铬铁矿、辉石岩、辉长岩、辉绿岩、玄武岩(拉斑质和碱性)、硅质岩及斜长花岗岩。随着研究的不断深入,在西准噶尔蛇绿混杂岩带中不断有不同时代OIB被识别。这些玄武岩属于碱性玄武岩系列,具有高TiO2和FeOt,低MgO,强烈富集轻稀土元素特征,没有明显Nb、Ta负异常,与日喀则及夏威夷洋岛玄武岩地球化学特征极为相似,可能形成于大洋板内的海山或洋底高原,认为其成因与地幔柱相关,表明在西准噶尔(洋)的演化过程中,不仅是洋内俯冲系统,还伴有地幔柱活动。结合前人研究,认为中亚造山带可能是洋内俯冲+地幔柱复合的演化模型。同时,对中亚造山带中的OIB及OIB型玄武岩形成时代进行系统总结发现,它们不仅时代宽度大,并且具有连续发育的特点。对正确认识地幔柱活动在显生宙中亚造山带地壳增生过程中的贡献提供新的资料和证据。     

Projection and possible causes of summer precipitation in eastern China using self-organizing map

Self-organizing map (SOM) is used to simulate summer daily precipitation over the Yangtze–Huaihe river basin in Eastern China, including future projections. SOM shows good behaviors in terms of probability distribution of daily rainfall and spatial distribution of rainfall indices, as well as consistency of multi-model simulations. Under RCP4.5 Scenario, daily rainfall at most sites (63%) is projected to shift towards larger values. For the early 21st century (2016–2035), precipitation in the central basin increases, yet decreases occur over the middle reaches of the Yangtze River as well as a part of its southeast area. For the late 21st century (2081–2100), the mean precipitation and extreme indices experience an overall increase except for a few southeast stations. The total precipitation in the lower reaches of the Yangtze River and in its south area is projected to increase from 7% at 1.5 °C global warming to 11% at 2 °C, while the intensity enhancement is more significant in southern and western sites of the domain. A clustering allows to regroup all SOM nodes into four distinct regimes. Such regional synoptic regimes show remarkable stability for future climate. The overall intensification of precipitation in future climate is linked to the occurrence-frequency rise of a wet regime which brings longitudinally closer the South Asia High (eastward extended) and the Western Pacific Subtropical High (westward extended), as well as the reduction of a dry pattern which makes the two atmospheric centers of action move away from each other.     

Preliminary Studies on Predicting the Tropical Indian Ocean Sea Surface Temperature through Combined Statistical Methods and Dynamic ENSO Prediction

The sea surface temperature(SST) in the Indian Ocean affects the regional climate over the Asian continent mostly through a modulation of the monsoon system.It is still difficult to provide an a priori indication of the seasonal variability over the Indian Ocean.It is widely recognized that the warm and cold events of SST over the tropical Indian Ocean are strongly linked to those of the equatorial eastern Pacific.In this study,a statistical prediction model has been developed to predict the monthly SST over the tropical Indian Ocean.This model is a linear regression model based on the lag relationship between the SST over the tropical Indian Ocean and the Ni o3.4(5°S-5°N,170°W-120°W) SST Index.The predictor(i.e.,Ni o3.4 SST Index) has been operationally predicted by a large size ensemble El Ni o and the Southern Oscillation(ENSO) forecast system with coupled data assimilation(Leefs_CDA),which achieves a high predictive skill of up to a 24-month lead time for the equatorial eastern Pacific SST.As a result,the prediction skill of the present statistical model over the tropical Indian Ocean is better than that of persistence prediction for January 1982 through December 2009.     

Diagnostics of subseasonal prediction biases of the Asian summer monsoon by the NCEP climate forecast system

Biases of subseasonal prediction of the Asian summer monsoon are diagnosed using daily data from the hindcasts of 45-day integrations by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System version 2. The retrospective forecasts often show apparent systematic biases, which are mostly represented by the underestimation of the whole Asian monsoon. Biases depend not only on lead time, but also on the stage of monsoon evolution. An abrupt turning point of bias development appears around late June and early July, when ensemble spread and bias growth of winds and precipitation show a significant change over the northwestern Pacific (NWP) and the South Asian summer monsoon (SASM) region. The abrupt turning of bias development of winds, precipitation, and surface temperature is also captured by the first two modes of multivariate empirical orthogonal function analysis. Several features appear associated with the abrupt change in bias development: the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) begins its first northward jump and the surface temperature over the Tibetan Plateau commences a transition from warm bias to cold bias, and a reversal of surface temperature biases occurs in the eastern tropical Indian Ocean and the SASM region. The shift of WPSH position and the transition of surface thermal bias show close relationships with the formation of bias centers in winds and precipitation. The rapid growth in bias due to the strong internal atmospheric variability during short leads seems to mainly account for the weak WPSH and SASM in the model. However, at certain stages, particularly for longer-lead predictions, the biases of slowly varying components may also play an important role in bias development of winds and precipitation.     

浙西南热带气旋强降水主要影响因子

对1950-2010年影响浙西南的热带气旋降水的移动路径、影响时间、强度、西风槽、西南季风以及地形等主要因子进行分析.结果表明:在玉环南-厦门一带登陆的热带气旋是影响浙西南的热带气旋中正面影响浙西南的类型,影响时间和最大平均过程降雨量、最大过程雨量存在着正相关关系,热带气旋的强度与其降水强度相关性较高.西风槽的存在不仅影响着热带气旋路径的变化,其槽前的西南气流也为热带气旋降水提供充足的水汽,同时槽后冷空气与热带气旋相结合,使丽水的西北部出现另一个强降水中心.西南季风为登陆后的热带气旋提供了水汽条件,使降水得到增幅.浙西南独特的地形,使在厦门以北到玉环以南登陆后西进、西北行或西北行后在120°E以西转向北上的热带气旋迎着山脉进入,降水强度明显加强.     

Artificial Martian frozen orbits and Sun-Synchronous orbits using continuous low-thrust control

This paper analyses three types of artificial orbits around Mars pushed by continuous low-thrust control: artificial frozen orbits, artificial Sun-Synchronous orbits and artificial Sun-Synchronous frozen orbits. These artificial orbits have similar characteristics to natural frozen orbits and Sun-Synchronous orbits, and their orbital parameters can be selected arbitrarily by using continuous low-thrust control. One control strategy to achieve the artificial frozen orbit is using both the transverse and radial continuous low-thrust control, and another to achieve the artificial Sun-Synchronous orbit is using the normal continuous low-thrust control. These continuous low-thrust control strategies consider J ₂, J ₃, and J ₄ perturbations of Mars. It is proved that both control strategies can minimize characteristic velocity. Relevant formulas are derived, and numerical results are presented. Given the same initial orbital parameters, the control acceleration and characteristic velocity taking into account J ₂, J ₃, and J ₄ perturbations are similar to those taking into account J ₂ perturbations for both Mars and the Earth. The control thrust of the orbit around Mars is smaller than that around the Earth. The magnitude of the control acceleration of ASFOM-4 (named as Artificial Sun-Synchronous Frozen Orbit Method 4) is the lowest among these strategies and the characteristic velocity within one orbital period is only 0.5219 m/s for the artificial Sun-Synchronous frozen orbit around Mars. It is evident that the relationship among the control thrusts and the primary orbital parameters of Martian artificial orbits is always similar to that of the Earth. Simulation shows that the control scheme extends the orbital parameters’ selection range of three types of orbits around Mars, compared with the natural frozen orbit and Sun-Synchronous orbit.     

Analysis of the potential field and equilibrium points of irregular-shaped minor celestial bodies

The equilibrium points of the gravitational potential field of minor celestial bodies, including asteroids, comets, and irregular satellites of planets, are studied. In order to understand better the orbital dynamics of massless particles moving near celestial minor bodies and their internal structure, both internal and external equilibrium points of the potential field of the body are analyzed. In this paper, the location and stability of the equilibrium points of 23 minor celestial bodies are presented. In addition, the contour plots of the gravitational effective potential of these minor bodies are used to point out the differences between them. Furthermore, stability and topological classifications of equilibrium points are discussed, which clearly illustrate the topological structure near the equilibrium points and help to have an insight into the orbital dynamics around the irregular-shaped minor celestial bodies. The results obtained here show that there is at least one equilibrium point in the potential field of a minor celestial body, and the number of equilibrium points could be one, five, seven, and nine, which are all odd integers. It is found that for some irregular-shaped celestial bodies, there are more than four equilibrium points outside the bodies while for some others there are no external equilibrium points. If a celestial body has one equilibrium point inside the body, this one is more likely linearly stable.