热带风压场平衡特征及其对GRAPES系统中同化预报的影响研究I:平衡特征分析

本文基于GRAPES全球模式的短期预报误差样本,利用赤道波动正规模态研究了热带风、压场平衡特征,并根据这些特征分析了线性平衡方程(LBE)在该区域应用时存在的问题。结果表明:(1)赤道波动能成功解释热带短期预报误差样本的大部分分量,对流层中层为60%~80%,对流层顶和平流层低层为80%以上。(2)在可解释的误差方差中,赤道罗斯贝波(ER)占比仅为30%~55%,其他赤道波动的作用不可忽视。(3)在ER模态基础上引入其他赤道波动会大幅削弱原有风、压场平衡约束,重力惯性波与Kelvin波的作用最为显著。此时,对流层中层位势高度h与u风、v风间的约束接近于零,而平流层低层h-u的平衡特征由Kelvin波主导。(4)LBE主要表达了ER模态下的风、压场平衡特征,与实际情形相比高估了热带风、压场的耦合程度,进一步的改进中需削弱这一虚假平衡,使得热带风、压场分析变得更加独立。     

Study on electric variations of media in epicentral area by geomagnetic transfer functions

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八卦庙金矿床地质特征及找矿方向

八卦庙金矿是产于秦岭泥盆系地层中的超大型金矿床,区域地质构造及其演化对成矿起了重要作用,尤其是脆-韧性剪切带及其与断裂的交汇部位,常常控制着金矿化的程度和范围.本文在综合分析矿区地质、矿床地质及成矿条件等的基础上,总结其成矿规律,提出了进一步找矿的方向.     

Assessment of the Pacific decadal oscillation’s contribution to the occurrence of local torrential rainfall in north China

On 21–22 July 2012, torrential rains hit North China, with the daily precipitation record at Beijing station reaching 160.6 mm; this event is named the Beijing 7–21 case. This paper assesses the likelihood of the occurrence of local torrential rains, such as the Beijing 7–21 case, from the perspective of climate variability. In particular, the influence of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is assessed. There were five extreme events, with daily precipitation records equal to or larger than 160.6 mm, at Beijing station during the period 1951–2012; all of these events happened during negative phases of the PDO. The present analysis indicates that precipitation events more extreme than the Beijing 7–21 case should happen more than once per decade during negative phases of the PDO, but only about once every four decades during positive PDO phases. The negative phase of the PDO is found to be associated with a much greater probability of daily records of southerly winds in North China during summer. Strong southerly summer monsoons are deemed favorable for increasing the occurrence of local extreme rainfall over North China.     

Position-domain integrity risk-based ambiguity validation for the integer bootstrap estimator

Integrity monitoring for ambiguity resolution is of significance for utilizing the high-precision carrier phase differential positioning for safety–critical navigational applications. The integer bootstrap estimator can provide an analytical probability density function, which enables the precise evaluation of the integrity risk for ambiguity validation. In order to monitor the effect of unknown ambiguity bias on the integer bootstrap estimator, the position-domain integrity risk of the integer bootstrapped baseline is evaluated under the complete failure modes by using the worst-case protection principle. Furthermore, a partial ambiguity resolution method is developed in order to satisfy the predefined integrity risk requirement. Static and kinematic experiments are carried out to test the proposed method by comparing with the traditional ratio test method and the protection level-based method. The static experimental result has shown that the proposed method can achieve a significant global availability improvement by 51% at most. The kinematic result reveals that the proposed method obtains the best balance between the positioning accuracy and the continuity performance.     

过去2000年典型暖期北半球温度变化特征及成因分析

过去2000年包含了罗马暖期（Roman Warm Period,简称RWP）、中世纪气候异常期（Medieval Climate Anomaly,简称MCA）和现代暖期（Present Warm Period,简称PWP）这3个典型暖期,前人对罗马暖期的关注相对较少。为了更好地对比自然暖期和叠加了人类活动的暖期的温度变化特征及成因,文章利用通用地球系统模式（Community Earth System Model,简称CESM）的过去2000年气候模拟试验资料,在与重建资料和同化资料（Last Millennium Reanalysis,简称LMR）进行对比验证的基础上,对这3个典型暖期北半球的温度变化特征和成因机制进行了初步探讨。结果表明：CESM的全强迫试验能很好地模拟出重建资料与LMR所反映的两个自然暖期（RWP和MCA）以及PWP,PWP相较于RWP和MCA北半球增温幅度明显更大。通过对比单因子敏感性试验结果发现,RWP时期主要受土地覆盖变化的影响,同时太阳活动、火山活动强迫对地表增温有一定调节作用;而MCA时期的火山活动频率相比RWP时期更小,且太阳活动稳定,此时土地覆盖的调节作用相比RWP时期减弱;PWP时期在温室气体强迫驱动下,地表温度增加显著,其贡献远超过火山活动、太阳活动两个外强迫因子,此时土地利用/覆盖强迫对增温显示出负向影响,同时北极涛动增强,进一步加剧PWP时期的增温。

     

基于COI基因和D-loop区部分序列比较雷州半岛东、西岸湖栖鳍虾虎鱼群体的遗传多样性

为比较分析雷州半岛东、西两岸湖栖鳍虾虎鱼(Gobiopterus lacustris)遗传差异,以COI基因和D-loop区部分序列为分子标记,获取雷州半岛湖栖鳍虾虎鱼群体COI序列44条(九龙山群体21条,高桥群体23条)、D-loop序列53条(九龙山群体25条,高桥群体28条)。基于COI基因部分序列分析结果显示:619 bp的44条序列中,统计的变异位点29个;T、C、A、G碱基组成分别为:27.8%、31.0%、23.7%、17.5%,且A+T(51.5%)高于C+G(48.5%);单倍型多样性比较,九龙山群体(0.695)高桥群体(0.324);遗传分化分析表明东、西群体分化显著(Snn=0.0.591,0.01P0.05),基因流(Nm)为5.37,遗传分化系数(Gst)为0.147,固定指数(Fst)为0.042(0.001P0.01),核苷酸差异数(Kxy)为2.547,核苷酸歧义度(Dxy)为0.004。而基于D-loop区部分序列分析结果表明:563 bp的53条序列中,变异位点133个;T、C、A、G碱基组成分别为:32.3%、14.8%、35.5%、17.4%,A+T(67.8%)明显高于C+G(32.2%);单倍型多样性与COI分析结果类似,九龙山群体(0.797)高桥群体(0.661);遗传分化分析表明东、西群体分化极显著(Snn=0.970,P0.001),Fst为0.315(P0.001),Nm值为0.55,Gst、Kxy、Dxy分别为:0.157、3.506、0.006;AMOVA分析揭示群体内变异程度高于群体间;聚类分析表明,基于COI基因与D-loop区部分序列构建的邻位链接法聚类树(NJ树)均存在按照采样点聚类的现象,但D-loop更为明显。综上,雷州半岛东、西两岸湖栖鳍虾虎鱼群体出现较为明显的分化现象。     

Distribution Characteristics of Effective Source Rocks and Their Control on Hydrocarbon Accumulation: A Case Study from the Dongying Sag, Eastern China

The exploration conducted in the Bohai Bay basin, eastern China has demonstrated that the abundant petroleum resources have close affinities to the hydrocarbon kitchen with rich organic matter. A number of oil-generating associations with various characteristics of organic geochemistry and assemblages of multiple reservoir facies are developed due to the multi-center sedimentation, multi-source supply and multi-cycle evolution of filling, which have resulted in the formation of multiple oil and gas accumulation zones of various layers and trap styles. Among them the Paleogene Shahejie Formation is the most important hydrocarbon accumulation combination in the Dongying sag. Heretofore, its proved reserve has reached nearly 1.8×109t, which accounts for more than 90% of the total proved reserves of the Dongying sag. Based on previous studies, more than 600 source rock samples and 186 crude oil samples of the Shahejie Formation, collected from 30 oilfields, have been treated with organic geochemical testing     

峰丛洼地的基岩物质组成与土地退化差异分析

根据可溶岩层组中非可溶夹层的出露情况对我国西南岩溶山区峰丛洼地进行了划分,并对不同基岩物质组成的峰丛洼地的土壤、土地类型及植被、坡面形态和地表径流特征及其差异进行了论述。在此基础上对不同基岩物质组成的峰丛洼地土地退化的过程及其差异进行了分析,进而论证了各地貌部位合理的土地利用布局。      

青海煤炭资源勘查开发的生态地质条件分析

本文基于对青海省内不同含煤盆地资源赋存地质规律的认识,结合赋煤构造单元划分和生态功能分区方案,将青海省划分为沙漠戈壁、草甸湿地、高原山地、冰川河源和高山河谷五大生态赋煤区,研究和分析了不同赋煤区的资源、生态和经济特征,提出研究资源勘查开发与生态环境保护、经济发展之间的关系,认为柴北缘沙漠戈壁生态赋煤区下一步资源勘查勘查开发的重点区域,祁连山草甸湿地生态赋煤区需在做好生态保护的前提下开展资源勘查开发,其他分区的资源均在资源、经济与生态方面不同时具备条件。