Application of a time-magnitude prediction model for earthquakes

In this paper we discuss the physical meaning of the magnitude-time model parameters for earthquake prediction. The gestation process for strong earthquake in all eleven seismic zones in China can be described by the magnitude-time prediction model using the computations of the parameters of the model. The average model parameter values for China are： b = 0.383, c=0.154, d = 0.035, B = 0.844, C = -0.209, and D = 0.188. The robustness of the model parameters is estimated from the variation in the minimum magnitude of the transformed data, the spatial extent, and the temporal period. Analysis of the spatial and temporal suitability of the model indicates that the computation unit size should be at least 4°× 4°for seismic zones in North China, at least 3° × 3° in Southwest and Northwest China, and the time period should be as long as possible.     

Warm bias of sea surface temperature in Eastern boundary current regions—a study of effects of horizontal resolution in CESM

Ocean Dynamics - Warm bias of modeled sea surface temperature (SST) in the eastern boundary upwelling systems (EBUS) is a ubiquitous feature in coupled climate models. This paper investigates the...     

南极磷虾渔业近况与趋势分析

南极周边海域蕴藏着丰富的南极磷虾资源,其开发潜力受到世界各国的关注。为此,本研究基于南极海洋生物资源养护委员会(CCAMLR)统计数据分析了近几年南极磷虾渔业国家发展状况,并研究了南极磷虾渔业捕捞结构的变化特点。结果发现:(1)受捕捞技术及装备的限制,南极磷虾传统渔业国家——波兰、日本及乌克兰等正逐渐淡出开发行列;(2)随着挪威、中国及智利等新兴国家的加入,南极磷虾入渔船舶和渔业产量呈上升趋势;(3)南极磷虾全年均有生产,其中3—9月份渔获产量占总产量的70%—90%;(4)受综合环境因素和新的渔业管理措施影响,CCAMLR 48.1、48.2和48.3小区渔获产量年间波动变大,渔场选择难度增大;(5)传统的大规模科学调查模式已不适应该资源变化与渔业管理的要求,科学性渔业调查将成为今后南极磷虾资源调查与评估的重要补充。     

1057年地震之研究

本文依据1057年历史地震文献资料,在分析这次地震的发生时间和破坏情况的基础上,对这次地震的震中参数提出了新的认识:1057年在河北—北京一带发生了二次地震,第一次地震发生在1057年3月26日,震级为534级;第二次地震发生在1057年5月24日,震级为612级;二次地震的震中位于现固安—霸县一带,其地理坐标为北纬39.25,东经116.3。     

The First Quantitative Slip-Rate Estimated Along the Ashikule Fault at the Western Segment of the Altyn Tagh Fault System

<正>As one of the longest strike-slip fault in Asia,the Altyn Tagh Fault(ATF)defines the northern boundary of the Tibetan Plateau and plays a significant role inaccommodating the deformation resulting from the IndiaAsia convergence.Slip-rate and seismic behavior of the fault are critical to understand the present-day kinematics     

Methods of Studying Petroleum Systems in Residual Basins-A Case Study of Mesozoic and Palaeozoic MarineBasins in Southern China

Through an integrated study of Mesozoic and Palaeozoic petroleum geology in southern China and a summing-up of the results of exploration, the authors tentatively put forward a set of methods of studying petroleum systems in modified residual basins or superposed basins. Its core idea is to put emphasis on the study of the dynamic evolution of petroleum systems. The tempo-spatial evolution, hydrocarbon-generating processes and hydrocarbon-generating intensities and amounts of resources in different geological stages of chief source rocks are mainly deduced backward by 3-D basin modelling. The regularities of formation and destruction of oil and gas accumulations are summarized by analyzing the fossil and existing oil and gas accumulations, the direction of migration is studied by palaeo-structural analysis, and the dynamic evolution of Palaeozoic and Mesozoic petroleum systems in southern China is studied according to stages of major tectonic movements. The authors suggest that the realistic exploration     

长江口外海上风速的近似推算摸式

在分析长江口外海陆风速差的日变化、季节变化特征的基础上,考虑了海陆不同下垫面的粗糙度和温度层结对风速变化的影响,建立了一个利用沿海陆地站测风推算近岸海上风速的模式。计算结果表明,推算值与实测值有着相当好的吻合,具有一定的实用价值。     

系列案犯罪地理目标模型优化

针对犯罪地理目标模型（CGT模型）在系列案件嫌疑人落脚点预测中未考虑地理环境因素影响,预测精度不高的问题,提出了一种顾及地理环境因素的犯罪地理目标模型优化方法（GEO-CGT模型）。研究采用相关性分析与灰色关联分析,刻画嫌疑人落脚点的地理环境相关性;参考多分类器系统理论,将地理环境因素与CGT模型进行非线性组合优化,并从搜索距离、面积误差对预测结果进行精度评估。以清远和韶关两市系列财产犯罪案件为样例数据,对模型预测进行对比实验,结果表明,改进后模型的预测精度相比于CGT和GEO-CGT模型均有显著提高。研究拓展了系列案嫌疑人落脚点预测方法,有效地提高了预测精度,对于警方缩小搜索范围,增大成功抓捕犯罪嫌疑人概率具有重要应用意义。     

CT扫描在腹部实质性脏器损伤中的作用

目的:进一步提高对腹部实质性器官损伤的CT表现的认识水平。方法:56例经临床、手术证实的腹部外伤患者,男43例,女13例,年龄7~58岁,平均年龄23.2岁,全部行中上腹部CT平扫。结果:56例中,脾挫裂伤23例,脾包膜下血肿5例,脾内血肿4例:肝挫裂伤并包膜下血肿4例,肝内血肿3例:肝脾破裂并包膜下血肿5例,肾挫裂伤2例,肾包膜下血肿3例,肾内血肿3例,胰腺挫伤1例,肾上腺挫伤2例。结论:CT平均对腹部实质性器官的损伤有重要作用,肝实质局限性受压是鉴别包膜下血肿与腹腔积血的较为特征性征象。     

基于CNN和RNN的像素级视频目标跟踪算法

影像目标跟踪定位技术是当前计算机视觉领域的研究热点,目标跟踪算法也是现阶段将视频结果用于定位的薄弱环节之一.本文分析了像素级目标跟踪存在的问题,根据深度学习在图像领域的最新研究成果与视频跟踪需求,结合最新的图像分割、卷积神经网络(CNN)、循环神经网络(RNN)和加密解码结构等方法提出了一种像素级视频目标跟踪算法.使用公开数据集实现算法并设计了定量评价指标.实验结果表明该算法具有较强的像素级视频目标跟踪定位能力.