雄安新区D01井岩溶热储下伏太古界中热流测定研究

【研究目的】目前雄安新区范围内的热流数据多测自于新近系沉积盖层及白云岩地层,对岩溶热储下伏太古界的热流测定研究还鲜见报道,主要受限于以往的地热勘查开发层位主要在1800m以浅的蓟县系岩溶热储,揭露岩溶热储下伏太古界的钻孔稀少。2018年以来,在雄安新区牛驼镇地热田实施了D01深部地热参数井,揭穿了高于庄组岩溶热储,并揭露太古界厚度达1723.67m,给该地区岩溶热储下伏太古界的热流测定研究提供了条件。【研究方法】本文基于近稳态钻孔测温及岩心热导率测试,对D01井太古界进行了热流测定及分析。【研究结果】结果表明：D01井太古界呈显著的传导型地温特征,地温梯度为18.3℃/km,相比于新近系地温梯度48.6℃/km偏低。测得25块D01井太古界片麻岩岩心样品的热导率平均值为（2.41±0.40）W/(K·m)。根据钻孔测温数据及热导率测试,计算出D01井太古界2300～2700m深度的热流值为（44.1±7.0）mW/m²。同时,估算了D01井新近系400～800m深度段的热流值为84.6mW/m²,较太古界高出40.5mW/m²。【结论】分析认为D01井新近系较太古界高出热流主要为高孔渗岩溶白云岩层中地下水侧向热对流作用以及牛东断裂地下水垂向热对流作用共同所致。研究结果对前人提出的地下水运移聚热模式及导热断裂聚热模式提供了数据支撑,对雄安新区深部地热资源成因机制和太古界地温场研究具有重要意义。     

中国大陆活动地块边界带主要断层的强震震间晚期综合判定

由于中国大陆强震主要分布在活动地块边界带上,所以活动地块边界带主要断层成为我国大陆型强震研究的重要目标,各强震孕育阶段的判定是大陆型强震原地复发的动力学过程研究主要内容,而目标断层是否处于震间晚期也是强震时间预测的重要研究基础.虽然地震短临预测仍存在诸多科学难题,但最近20年来全球若干强震相关研究表明,如果放宽预测时间尺度的要求,有些方法也可用于强震震间晚期的判定.本文以中国大陆活动地块边界带的391条断层段为研究目标,利用地震地质的强震破裂空段、大地测量的断层运动闭锁段、地震活动的中小地震稀疏段、数值模拟的库仑应力增强显著段等方法,综合判定中国大陆活动地块边界带可能处于震间晚期的主要断层段.本文结果仅是初步结果,该结果的可靠程度有赖于监测条件,其科学性有赖于大陆型强震孕育发生动力学过程的认识水平,虽然本文尝试给出中国大陆活动地块边界带主要断层的震间晚期判定结果,但其结果可靠程度、精细程度等均存在巨大的改善空间.最后,从断层孕震阶段判定需求的角度,本文尝试给出大陆型震源物理模型的具体基础模型,期望起到抛砖引玉的作用,也期望更多地震学家关注大陆型强震的物理机制及其预测基础研究.

     

Ensemble simulation of land evapotranspiration in China based on a multi-forcing and multi-model approach

In order to reduce the uncertainty of offline land surface model(LSM) simulations of land evapotranspiration(ET), we used ensemble simulations based on three meteorological forcing datasets [Princeton, ITPCAS(Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences), Qian] and four LSMs(BATS, VIC, CLM3.0 and CLM3.5), to explore the trends and spatiotemporal characteristics of ET, as well as the spatiotemporal pattern of ET in response to climate factors over mainland China during 1982–2007. The results showed that various simulations of each member and their arithmetic mean(Ens Mean) could capture the spatial distribution and seasonal pattern of ET sufficiently well, where they exhibited more significant spatial and seasonal variation in the ET compared with observation-based ET estimates(Obs MTE). For the mean annual ET, we found that the BATS forced by Princeton forcing overestimated the annual mean ET compared with Obs MTE for most of the basins in China, whereas the VIC forced by Princeton forcing showed underestimations. By contrast, the Ens Mean was closer to Obs MTE, although the results were underestimated over Southeast China. Furthermore, both the Obs MTE and Ens Mean exhibited a significant increasing trend during 1982–98; whereas after 1998, when the last big EI Ni ?no event occurred, the Ens Mean tended to decrease significantly between 1999 and 2007, although the change was not significant for Obs MTE. Changes in air temperature and shortwave radiation played key roles in the long-term variation in ET over the humid area of China, but precipitation mainly controlled the long-term variation in ET in arid and semi-arid areas of China.     

基于ECDIS的多数据源支持技术分析

利用多源地理空间数据集成和融合理论,研究了基于ECDIS的多数据源支持技术。介绍了常用的多源海图数据及其使用原则,分析了ECDIS多数据源支持技术的特点及内涵,总结了国内外常用多源海图数据集成方法,从数据可用性角度探讨了提高国产电子海图系统适用性的措施。     

基于特大地震发生率的川滇地区地震危险性预测新模型

川滇地区是我国地震危险性较高的地区之一.本文基于对特大强震的风险性考虑,使用全球地震模型OpenQuake软件,建立了川滇地区地震危险性预测新模型.首先根据构造特征划分多个震源分区,并整理出这些震源分区内断层活动特征与滑动速率;基于震源分区和断层模型,使用GPS应变率转换成的锥形古登堡-里克特关系作为整个区域的地震积累率,并允许超过历史最大震级的特大地震的出现,结合活动断层滑动速率所积累的地震发生率,给出震源分区内断层地震源和背景地震源的地震发生率的比率分配关系;在活动断层分段上,保留了大型断裂或其主要部分,没有根据小的阶区来对断层进行详细分段,以便分配特大地震发生率;并使用地震率平滑方法分配背景地震发生率.最后在OpenQuake中加入地震动预测方程,计算出了川滇地区的PGA分布图,为区域地震危险性提供科学依据.

     

Risk assessment of maize drought disaster in southwest China using the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate model

The East Asian monsoon has a tremendous impact on agricultural production in China. An assessment of the risk of drought disaster in maize-producing regions is therefore important in ensuring a reduction in such disasters and an increase in food security. A risk assessment model, EPIC(Environmental Policy Integrated Climate) model, for maize drought disasters based on the Erosion Productivity Impact Calculator crop model is proposed for areas with the topographic characteristics of the mountainous karst region in southwest China. This region has one of the highest levels of environmental degradation in China. The results showed that the hazard risk level for the maize zone of southwest China is generally high. Most hazard index values were between 0.4 and 0.5,accounting for 47.32% of total study area. However,the risk level for drought loss was low. Most of the loss rate was 0.1, accounting for 96.24% of the total study area. The three high-risk areas were mainlydistributed in the parallel ridge–valley areas in the east of Sichuan Province, the West Mountain area of Guizhou Province, and the south of Yunnan Province.These results provide a scientific basis and support for the reduction of agricultural drought disasters and an increase in food security in the southwest China maize zone.     

Mechanical behavior and micro-structure of cement kiln dust-stabilized expensive soil

In this study, the effects of cement kiln dust (CKD) on the swelling properties, strength properties, and microstructures of CKD-stabilized expansive soil were investigated. Samples were prepared and stabilized with different CKD content ratios, ranging from 0 to 18% by dry mass. The results obtained show that the maximum swelling pressures decrease exponentially with increases in CKD content. Both the cohesion and unconfined compressive strength (UCS) increase at ratios below 10% CKD and then decrease slightly, above that ratio. CKD can also improve the strength of saturated, expansive soil. There is no visible change of UCS for soil without CKD when cured, while the UCS of a sample with 10% CKD content after curing for 90 days is higher than that after curing for only 1 day. This indicates that CKD can improve the long-term strength of expansive soil. Finally, microstructure analysis reveals that the addition of CKD reduces the montmorillonite content of expansive soil and decreases its swelling properties. The addition of CKD also changes the pore volume distribution, both the size and amount of macro-pores and micro-pores decrease with increase in CKD content. For saturated samples, the size of macro-pores is obviously reduced, while that of micro-pores is slightly increased for both treated and untreated soils. Hydration and saturation processes make the soil structure become dispersive which results in a lower strength, and adding CKD can restrain this process. The suggested optimal CKD content is between 10 and 14% and with a curing time of more than 27 days.     

宿迁地震台地震监测能力分析

根据宿迁地震台地震计和数采参数、台站背景噪声等数据,结合历史地震观测数据,运用统计学计算方法,计算宿迁地震台地震监测能力。结果认为:宿迁地震台短周期台基背景噪声较大,微小地震监测能力较弱,但基本可以监测到M_L 2.0地方震,也可监测到150 km范围内周边城市M_L 2.5地震。