新一代区域海-气-浪耦合台风预报系统

依托国家重点基础研究（973）计划项目"上层海洋对台风的响应和调制机理研究",中国气象局上海台风研究所联合国家海洋局的相关单位,通过实施近海台风的外场观测科学试验、加强台风边界层（特别是海气相互作用）物理过程诊断分析及参数化方案等的研究,建立并改进了台风强度预报的海-气-浪耦合预报模式系统,并在此基础上发展了台风强度的集合预报技术,在历史典型台风个例和2016-2017年台汛期的业务化测试中表现出良好的预报性能。     

广东旅游休闲产业空间布局模式的构建

从大珠三角与其周边地区的地理梯度特征,可见大珠三角在广东地理、经济、文化中的核心地位,其周边地区的边缘地位。这种“核心”与“边缘”或“中心”与“外围”的关系实际上构造了一个相对稳定的旅游系统,前者主要成为旅游客源地,后者主要成为旅游接待地。大珠三角城际在空间上的逐步融合,构成了广东“环大珠三角城市群游憩带”和“点-轴树状游憩网”,以及“南部濒海游憩廊”的旅游休闲产业空间布局模式。     

过去千年气候变化重建研究新进展

20世纪气候变暖的归因是当前全球共同关注的焦点之一,而解决这一问题的途径之一是对过去千年的气候变化历史进行精确重建。简要回顾过去千年气候重建的研究进展,重点关注古气候空间重建方法方面的最新进展,并将目前古气候空间重建方法划分为3类,即综合-比例法（Composite Plus Scale, CPS）、气候场重建法（Climate Field Reconstruction, CFR）以及状态空间模型（State-space Model）法,同时指出了这些方法的优缺点以及可能的解决途径。     

鄂尔多斯高原景观格局变化分析--以伊金霍洛旗为例

以位于内蒙古鄂尔多斯高原上的伊金霍洛旗为研究区域，以景观生态学的数量分析方法为基本手段，在土地利用现状分类体系下，以其1984、1991和1998年3个年度的土地利用图为基础。从区域和斑块类型两个尺度上，对其景观格局进行了数量分析。结果表明，在三个典型年度。天然草地为伊金霍洛旗的景观基质，景观格局指数的所有变化均是在此基础上发生和演变的。从整个景观尺度的格局指数变化情况显示，伊金霍洛旗景观的破碎化程度在增加；同时景观的异质性程度在下降，景观愈来愈有少数景观斑块类型所控制。而在斑块类型这一尺度上的格局指数变化说明，不同类型斑块的复杂性的变化趋势基本相同，即均有不同程度的增长，但增加幅度有限；同时还说明，不同类型斑块内部其大小差异的幅度在不断缩小。但从不同年度的变化情况来看，无论是区域还是不同的斑块类型，其格局指数的变化并不与总体的变化趋势同步。     

论中国东部大型盆地区及邻区地质-地球物理复合尺度解析

作为对中国东部陆缘地带大型盆地区及邻区地质－地球物理综合研究的部分结果,本文的基本认识：（1）穿过松辽盆地的1孙吴－双辽断裂可能是东倾伯低角度壳内断裂;（2）松辽盆地和渤海湾盆地可能属于“混合型裂谷盆地”;（3）东海盆地台北坳陷处在多期次张性应力场环境中,使在其西部附近产生张性正断层系;（4）欧亚大陆东部新生代区域构造运动总体处于右旋走滑拉张环境,其动力因素包括板块运动和地幔物质运动;（5）研究区莫霍面具有较为复杂的变化;（6）复合尺度研究方法是地质－地球物理综合分析的必要手段。     

A multistage simulation-based optimization model for water resources management in Tarim River Basin, China

In this study, a multistage simulation-based optimization model is developed for supporting water resources management under uncertainty. The system couples a lumped rainfall-runoff model with an inexact multistage stochastic program, where its random parameter is provided by the statistical analysis of simulation outcomes. Moreover, penalties are exercised with recourse against any infeasibility, which permits in-depth analyses of various policy scenarios that are associated with different levels of economic consequences when the promised water-allocation targets are violated. The developed model can also reflect dynamic features of the system conditions through transactions at discrete points in time over a multistage context. The developed model is applied to a real case of planning water resources management in Tarim River Basin, which is one of the most serious water-shortage regions of China. A variety of policies associated with different water-allocation targets are analyzed. The results are helpful for decision makers identifying optimal water-allocation plans for mitigating the conflict among ecological protection, economic development, and regional sustainability.     

乌南油田滨浅湖砂体储层构型及其油气意义

基于Miall储层构型研究思想,结合岩心、测井、测试等资料,对乌南油田砂坝砂体储层构型界面特征进行了研究,确定了储层构型界面识别标志;在此基础上,将砂坝内部构型分为坝主体和坝侧缘,同时通过动、静态结合,明确砂坝外部构型存在孤立、视连通、左侧向叠置和右侧向叠置4种模式;纵向上发育湖退（进积）和湖进（退积）两种砂体发育模式。坝主体是主力储层,具有良好油气显示;坝主体分布面积大、出现频率高为油气有利区域。     

Distinct quasi-biweekly features of the subtropical East Asian monsoon during early and late summers

Using Global Precipitation Climatology Project daily rainfall and ERA interim reanalysis data, we investigate the distinct characteristic of quasi-biweekly variation (QBV: 12–20 days) over East Asia (EA) during early (June 10–July 20) and late (July 21–August 31) summer. The QBV maximum variance is found over the core region of EA (30°–40°N, 110°–130°E), which includes eastern China (lower reaches of the Yellow, Huaihe, and Yangtze rivers) and the Korean Peninsula. At both its peak wet and dry phases, QBV over the core region has a baroclinic structure, but with different spatial distributions, different lower-level prevalent wind anomalies, and different upper-level major circulation anomalies in the two subseasons. Meanwhile, the two subseasons have different propagating tracks prior to reaching the peak phase, and different precursors associated with the local genesis of QBV. Furthermore, during the transition from the peak dry to peak wet phase of QBV, the major monsoon circulations have different behaviors that tropical monsoon trough extends eastward in early summer but retreats westward in late summer and the South Asia high (SAH) and western North Pacific (WNP) subtropical high move toward (away from) each other in early (late) summer. The abrupt change of mean state in mid to late July, which includes the northward migration of westerly jet, SAH and WNP, and the weakening and broken of westerly jet, is considered the root cause of the change in behavior of QBV. Finally, we indicate that the tropical monsoon trough and midlatitude westerly jet are possible sources of QBV over subtropical EA in both subseasons and provide useful guidance for 2–3 week predictions over EA.     

The Evolution of Alpine Ultramafic Rocks and Partial Melting of the Upper Mantle

Ultramafic rocks of Tibet and Xinjiang are the products of partial melting of the upper mantle. The evolution of their mineral composition is marked by two parallel evolutionary series: one is the progressive increase of the 100 Mg/(Mg+Fe~(2+) ratio of silicate minerals in order of lherzolite→harzburgite→dunite, i.e. the increase in magnesium; the other is the increase of the 100 Cr/(Cr+Al) ratio of accessory chrome spinel in the same order, i. e. the increase in Chromium. The above-mentioned evolutionary trends are contrary to that of magmatic differentiation. The evolution of fabrics of ultramafic rocks is characterized by progressive variation in order of protogranular texture→melted residual texture, symplectic texture and clastophyritic texture→equigranular mosaic texture and tabular mosaic texture. Experiments of partial melting of lherzolite have convincingly shown that the evolution of Alpine ultramafic rocks resulted from the partial melting of pyrolite. Various subtypes of them represent different degrees of partial melting. The vertical zoning marked by more basic rocks in the upper part and more acid rocks in the lower actually belongs to the fusion zoning of pyrolite.     

广东汕头湾表层沉积物重金属含量分布及风险评价

汕头湾地处汕头东部,是珠三角经济区和海峡西岸经济区重要的海上交通枢纽。因受周边城镇、养殖区排污等影响,汕头湾的海洋环境已受污染,生态健康问题不容忽视。沉积物中重金属是反映区域环境质量的重要因子,本研究通过测定汕头湾海域29个表层沉积物样品中重金属Zn、Cu、Cr、Cd、Pb、Hg、As含量,分析了各元素的平面分布特征,并运用主成分分析法(PCA)、地累积指数法和潜在生态风险指数法对该区域沉积物中重金属的来源及潜在生态风险进行了探讨。结果表明:汕头湾海域表层沉积物的金属含量变化范围为CZn(15. 3～280. 4 mg/kg)、CCu(2. 0～84. 6mg/kg)、CCr(3. 0～130. 8 mg/kg)、CCd(0. 05～1. 07 mg/kg)、CPb(12. 97～39. 31 mg/kg)、CHg(0. 008～0. 171 mg/kg)、CAs(1. 60～16. 50 mg/kg),榕江入海口处为重金属元素的高值区,在拦沙堤的两侧,元素Zn、Cu、Cr、Cd的含量差别较大。相关性分析和主成分分析结果显示,重金属具有相同污染来源,工业废水和城市排污等人类活动输入是主要途径,其分布特征受有机碳、硫化物及细粒级组分等环境因子的影响。地累积指数法和潜在生态风险指数法的结果表明,在榕江入海口附近区域,重金属表现出强的生态风险,而拦沙堤东侧海域为轻微生态风险,Hg、Cu、Cd是主要污染元素。