Empirical Orthogonal Function Analysis of Daily Rainfall in the Upper Reaches of the Huai River Basin, China

Summary  The design and operation of hydro-structures for flood control and water conservation bring a need for improved characterization of precipitation patterns. A 73 000 km² study area in East Central China is situated in the East Asian monsoon region and experiences a strong seasonality in the rainfall regime. The characteristics of daily rainfall from 230 gauges during 1967–1986 were investigated for four periods in the summer monsoon season using empirical orthogonal function analysis (EOF) and extended empirical orthogonal function analysis (EEOF). The EOF analysis showed that for all four periods most of the variance was explained by an elongated spatial rainfall pattern. The pattern varied in direction, from roughly west-east to southwest-northeast, in the different periods. The zonally oriented patterns were interpreted as being caused by the stationary Mei-Yu front and the southwest-northeast patterns interpreted as cold fronts in cyclones that were developing over the study area. The latitude of the rain belt described by the first mode moved slightly northward with the advance of the East Asian monsoon from the first period, 9–22 June, to the third period, 23 July–5 August, and then withdrew southward again in accordance with the known seasonal movement of the Mei-Yu front. The EEOF analysis was used to show the development of the rainfall area over sequences of three days. During all four periods rainfall intensified on the second day, compared to the first and third days. During the first and last periods, 9–22 June and 5 August–30 September, respectively, there appeared to be little movement in the rainfall. During the second and third periods, the patterns were interpreted as a cold front in a developing cyclone. The results show the connection between the temporal variation in rainfall intensity and the temporal succession of spatial patterns over three day periods and should be used in the construction of design rainfalls for the study area. Received February 10, 1998 Revised June 23, 1998     

Supergranulation rotation

Simple convection models estimate the depth of supergranulation at approximately 7500 km which suggests that supergranules would rotate at the rate of the plasma in the outer 1% of the solar radius. The supergranulation rotation obtained from MDI dopplergrams shows that supergranules rotate faster than the outer 5% of the convection zone and show zonal flows matching results from inversions of f-mode splittings. Additionally, the rotation rate depends on the size scale of the features.     

Hotel managed marine reserves: A willingness to pay survey

The 2003 Marine Parks Congress recommended networks of marine reserves to be established covering 20–30% of habitats by 2012. Most marine reserves are, however, failing to meet their objectives, the main reason being attributed to lack of funding. In light of the growing need for effectively managed marine reserves, a survey ascertaining tourists' support and willingness to pay extra to stay at reserves managed by the private sector – Hotel Managed Marine Reserves (HMMRs) was conducted at Whale Island Resort, Vietnam. A total of 97.5% support HMMR, 86.3% were willing to pay, the median amounting to US$9.6/room/night, or 10% of the average room rate, equaling US$67,277 at 60% occupancy.     

Evaluation of pan-Arctic melt-freeze onset in CMIP5 climate models and reanalyses using surface observations

The seasonal melt-freeze transitions are fundamental features of the Arctic climate system. The representation of the pan-Arctic melt and freeze onset (north of 60°N) is assessed in two reanalyses and eleven CMIP5 global circulation models (GCMs). The seasonal melt-freeze transitions are retrieved from surface air temperature (SAT) across the land and sea-ice domains and evaluated against surface observations. While monthly averages of SAT are reasonably well represented in models, large model-observation and model–model disparities of timing of melt and freeze onset are evident. The evaluation against surface observations reveals that the ERA-Interim reanalysis performs the best, closely followed by some of the climate models. GCMs and reanalyses capture the seasonal melt-freeze transitions better in the central Arctic than in the marginal seas and across the land areas. The GCMs project that during the 21st century, the summer length—the period between melt and freeze onset—will increase over land by about 1 month at all latitudes, and over sea ice by 1 and 3 months at low and high latitudes, respectively. This larger summer-length increase over sea ice at progressively higher latitudes is related to a retreat of summer sea ice during the 21st century, since open water freezes roughly 40 days later than ice-covered ocean. As a consequence, by the year 2100, the freeze onset is projected to be initiated within roughly 10 days across the whole Arctic Ocean, whereas this transition varies by about 80 days today.     

Total sediment budget of a transgressive barrier-spit,Skallingen, SW Denmark: A review

Average sea-level rise in the northern part of the Danish Wadden Sea has been 1.3 mm a^?1 during the last 100 years but during the last 25 years a rise of 4.2 mm a^?1 was observed. Concurrent with the recent sea-level rise the Skallingen barrier spit has migrated landward by 3–5 m a^?1. Long term sediment budgets for each of the morphological units involved in the migration are reviewed (e.g. onshore in the shore face +90.000 m³ a^?1, longshore -641.000 m³ a^?1, foredunes +65,000 m³ a^?1, overwash fan including shorenormal dunes +11,000 m³ a^?1, spit terminus -96,000 m³ a^?1, tidal flat + 10,000 m³ a^?1 and backbarrier salt marsh +33,000 m³ a^?1) and used to establish the relative importance of sediment transport processes involved in barrier migration. Strong interannual variations exist in the long term budget making evaluation of barrier behaviour based on short term measurements doubtful. In a cross shore sense the barrier spit is accreting in spite of the sea level rise. This is specially pronounced at an active overwash fan. However, due to substantial sediment losses to longshore transport the barrier, gets narrower and shorter during its transgressive behaviour. This may indicate that preservation of barriers in the geological record during rapid sea level rise is promoted when sediment loss to longshore transport is insignificant.     

Climate-driven changes in water level: a decadal scale multi-proxy study recording the 8.2-ka event and ecosystem responses in Lake Sarup (Denmark)

A two-stage change in lake level during the 8.2-ka event was identified in Lake Sarup, Denmark (55°N), using a multiproxy approach on precise radiocarbon wiggle-matched annually laminated sediments deposited 8740–8060 cal. yr BP. Changes in δ¹³C and δ¹⁸O indicated closed lake hydrology driven by precipitation. The isotopic, sedimentary and plant macrofossil records suggested that the lake level started to decrease around 8400 cal. yr BP, the decrease accelerating during 8350–8260 before an abrupt increase during 8260–8210. This pattern shows that the climate anomaly started ~150 years before the onset of the 8.2-ka cooling event registered in Greenland ice cores, but was synchronous with hydrologic change in the North American Lake Agassiz drainage. The lake level decrease was accompanied by a higher accumulation rate of inorganic matter and lower accumulation rates of cladoceran subfossils and algal pigments, possibly due to increased turbidity and reduced nutrient input during this drier period. Pigment analysis also showed added importance of diatoms and cryptophytes during this climate anomaly, while cyanobacteria became more important when the water level rose. Moreover, Nymphaeaceae trichosclereids were abundant during the period of algal enrichment. Cladoceran taxa associated with floating leaved plants or benthic habitats responded in a complex way to changes in water level, but the cladoceran assemblages generally reflected deep lake conditions throughout the period. The lake did not return to its pre-8.2-ka event status during the period of analysis, but remained more productive for centuries after the climatic anomaly as judged from the pigment accumulation and assemblage composition. The change to more eutrophic conditions may have been triggered by erosion of marginal deposits. Together, these data confirm the chronology of hydrologic changes and suggest, for the first time, that lake levels exhibited both a decline and an increase in rapid succession in response to the 8.2-ka event in southern Scandinavia.     

A diatom‐based reconstruction of summer sea‐surface salinity in the Southern Okinawa Trough,East China Sea,over the last millennium

A high‐resolution diatom record from site MD05‐2908 in the Southern Okinawa Trough, East China Sea, reveals pronounced multidecadal‐ to centennial‐scale palaeoceanographic changes throughout the last millennium. Summer sea‐surface salinity (SSS) was reconstructed using a weighted averaging partial least squares diatom‐based training set. The reconstructed SSS shows slightly decreasing values during the period AD 905–1930 with considerable fluctuations superimposed on this general trend. Relatively high‐salinity conditions during the interval AD 905–1450 probably suggest a low flood frequency in north‐eastern Taiwan. Furthermore, the high SSS values are associated with a strong and stable influence of the Kuroshio Current on the Southern Okinawa Trough during the Medieval Climate Anomaly. The period AD 1450–1930 is characterized by three low‐salinity intervals (AD 1450–1500, AD 1625–1725 and AD 1770–1880) separated by periods of relatively high salinity. The low SSS intervals indicate increased freshwater discharge into the Southern Okinawa Trough during the Little Ice Age, probably as a result of higher flood frequencies in north‐eastern Taiwan. Spectral and wavelet analyses suggest that this pattern was linked to multidecadal variations in summer SSS, presumably associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Advances towards improved low-frequency tree-ring reconstructions, using an updated Pinus sylvestris L. MXD network from the Scandinavian Mountains

The dendrochronological use of the parameter maximum density (MXD) in Pinus Sylvestris L., at high latitudes, has provided valuable insights into past summer temperature variations. Few long MXD chronologies, from climatically coherent regions, exist today, with the exception being in northern Europe. Five, 500-year-long, Fennoscandian, MXD chronologies were compared with regard to their common variability and climate sensitivity. They were used to test Signal-free standardization techniques, to improve inferences of low-frequency temperature variations. Climate analysis showed that, in accordance with previous studies on MXD in Fennoscandia, the summer temperature signal is robust (R ²?>?50 %) and reliable over this climatically coherent region. A combination of Individual standardization and regional curve standardization is recommended to refine long-term variability from these MXD chronologies and relieve problems arising from low replication and standardization end-effects.     

The Third GABLS Intercomparison Case for Evaluation Studies of Boundary-Layer Models. Part B: Results and Process Understanding

We describe and analyze the results of the third global energy and water cycle experiment atmospheric boundary layer Study intercomparison and evaluation study for single-column models. Each of the nineteen participating models was operated with its own physics package, including land-surface, radiation and turbulent mixing schemes, for a full diurnal cycle selected from the Cabauw observatory archive. By carefully prescribing the temporal evolution of the forcings on the vertical column, the models could be evaluated against observations. We focus on the gross features of the stable boundary layer (SBL), such as the onset of evening momentum decoupling, the 2-m minimum temperature, the evolution of the inertial oscillation and the morning transition. New process diagrams are introduced to interpret the variety of model results and the relative importance of processes in the SBL; the diagrams include the results of a number of sensitivity runs performed with one of the models. The models are characterized in terms of thermal coupling to the soil, longwave radiation and turbulent mixing. It is shown that differences in longwave radiation schemes among the models have only a small effect on the simulations; however, there are significant variations in downward radiation due to different boundary-layer profiles of temperature and humidity. The differences in modelled thermal coupling to the land surface are large and explain most of the variations in 2-m air temperature and longwave incoming radiation among models. Models with strong turbulent mixing overestimate the boundary-layer height, underestimate the wind speed at 200 m, and give a relatively large downward sensible heat flux. The result is that 2-m air temperature is relatively insensitive to turbulent mixing intensity. Evening transition times spread 1.5 h around the observed time of transition, with later transitions for models with coarse resolution. Time of onset in the morning transition spreads 2 h around the observed transition time. With this case, the morning transition appeared to be difficult to study, no relation could be found between the studied processes, and the variation in the time of the morning transition among the models.