Slope instabilities triggered by the 11th May 2011 Lorca earthquake (Murcia,Spain): comparison to previous hazard assessments and proposition of a new hazard map and probability of failure equation

The Lorca Basin has been the object of recent research aimed at studying the phenomena of earthquake-induced landslides and its assessment in the frame of different seismic scenarios. However, it has not been until the 11th May 2011 Lorca earthquakes when it has been possible to conduct a systematic approach to the problem. In this paper we present an inventory of slope instabilities triggered by the Lorca earthquakes which comprises more than 100 cases, mainly rock and soil falls of small size (1–100  \(\hbox {m}^{3}\) ). The distribution of these instabilities is here compared to two different earthquake-triggered landslide hazard maps: one considering the occurrence of the most probable earthquake for a 475-years return period in the Lorca Basin \((\hbox {M}_{\mathrm{w}}=5.0)\) based on both low- and high-resolution digital elevation model (DEM); and a second one matching the occurrence of the \(\hbox {M}_{\mathrm{w}}=5.2\) 2011 Lorca earthquake, which was performed using the higher resolution DEM. The most frequent Newmark displacements related to the slope failures triggered by the 2011 Lorca earthquakes are lower than 2 cm in both the hazard scenarios considered. Additionally, the predicted Newmark displacements were correlated to the inventory of slope instabilities to develop a probability of failure equation. The fit seems to be very good since most of the mapped slope failures are located on the higher probability areas. The probability of slope failure in the Lorca Basin for a seismic event similar to the \(\hbox {M}_{\mathrm{w}}\) 5.2 2011 Lorca earthquake can be considered as very low (0–4 %).     

Inverse problem in hydrogeology

The state of the groundwater inverse problem is synthesized. Emphasis is placed on aquifer characterization, where modelers have to deal with conceptual model uncertainty (notably spatial and temporal variability), scale dependence, many types of unknown parameters (transmissivity, recharge, boundary conditions, etc.), nonlinearity, and often low sensitivity of state variables (typically heads and concentrations) to aquifer properties. Because of these difficulties, calibration cannot be separated from the modeling process, as it is sometimes done in other fields. Instead, it should be viewed as one step in the process of understanding aquifer behavior. In fact, it is shown that actual parameter estimation methods do not differ from each other in the essence, though they may differ in the computational details. It is argued that there is ample room for improvement in groundwater inversion: development of user-friendly codes, accommodation of variability through geostatistics, incorporation of geological information and different types of data (temperature, occurrence and concentration of isotopes, age, etc.), proper accounting of uncertainty, etc. Despite this, even with existing codes, automatic calibration facilitates enormously the task of modeling. Therefore, it is contended that its use should become standard practice.

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Resumen Se sintetiza el estado del problema inverso en aguas subterráneas. El énfasis se ubica en la caracterización de acuíferos, donde los modeladores tienen que enfrentar la incertidumbre del modelo conceptual (principalmente variabilidad temporal y espacial), dependencia de escala, muchos tipos de parámetros desconocidos (transmisividad, recarga, condiciones limitantes, etc), no linealidad, y frecuentemente baja sensibilidad de variables de estado (típicamente presiones y concentraciones) a las propiedades del acuífero. Debido a estas dificultades, no puede separarse la calibración de los procesos de modelado, como frecuentemente se hace en otros campos. En su lugar, debe de visualizarse como un paso en el proceso de entendimiento del comportamiento del acuífero. En realidad, se muestra que los métodos reales de estimación de parámetros no difieren uno del otro en lo esencial, aunque sí pueden diferir en los detalles computacionales. Se discute que existe amplio espacio para la mejora del problema inverso en aguas subterráneas: desarrollo de códigos amigables al usuario, acomodamiento de variabilidad a través de geoestadística, incorporación de información geológica y diferentes tipos de datos (temperatura, presencia y concentración de isótopos, edad, etc), explicación apropiada de incertidumbre, etc. A pesar de esto, aún con los códigos existentes, la calibración automática facilita enormemente la tarea de modelado. Por lo tanto, se sostiene que su uso debería de convertirse en práctica standard.

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Résumé Létat du problème inverse des eaux souterraines est synthétisé. Laccent est placé sur la caractérisation de laquifère, où les modélisateurs doivent jouer avec lincertitude des modèles conceptuels (notamment la variabilité spatiale et temporelle), les facteurs déchelle, plusieurs inconnues sur différents paramètres (transmissivité, recharge, conditions aux limites, etc.), la non linéarité, et souvent la sensibilité de plusieurs variables détat (charges hydrauliques, concentrations) des propriétés de laquifère. A cause de ces difficultés, le calibrage ne peut être séparé du processus de modélisation, comme cest le cas dans dautres cas de figure. Par ailleurs, il peut être vu comme une des étapes dans le processus de détermination du comportement de laquifère. Il est montré que les méthodes dévaluation des paramètres actuels ne diffèrent pas si ce nest dans les détails des calculs informatiques. Il est montré quil existe une large panoplie de techniques d ‹inversion : codes de calcul utilisables par tout-un-chacun, accommodation de la variabilité via la géostatistique, incorporation dinformations géologiques et de différents types de données (température, occurrence, concentration en isotopes, âge, etc.), détermination de lincertitude. Vu ces développements, la calibration automatique facilite énormément la modélisation. Par ailleurs, il est souhaitable que son utilisation devienne une pratique standardisée.

     

Numerical evaluation of the dilogarithm of complex argument

A numerical algorithm to evaluate the dilogarithmic function of a complex argument is proposed. The use of the dilogarithm in celestial mechanics appears in the exact Delaunay normalization of some functions involving the equation of the centre.     

Late Miocene evaporite geochemistry of Lorca and Fortuna basins (Eastern Betics,SE Spain): Evidence of restriction and continentalization

The Lorca and Fortuna basins are two intramontane Neogene basins located in the eastern Betic Cordillera (SE Spain). During the Late Tortonian—Early Messinian, marine and continental evaporites precipitated in these basins as a consequence of increased marine restriction and isolation. Here we show a stratigraphic correlation between the evaporite records of these basins based on geochemical indicators. We use SO₄ isotope compositions and Sr isotopic ratios in gypsum, and halite Br contents to characterize these units and to identify the marine or continental source of the waters feeding the evaporite basins. In addition, we review the available chronological information used to date these evaporites in Lorca (La Serrata Fm), including a thick saline deposit, that we correlate with the First Evaporitic Group in Fortuna (Los Baños Fm). This correlation is also supported by micropalaeontological data, giving a Late Tortonian age for this sequence. The Second Evaporitic Group, (Chicamo Fm), and the Third Evaporitic Group (Rambla Salada Fm) developed only in Fortuna during the Messinian. According to the palaeogeographical scheme presented here, the evaporites of the Lorca and Fortuna basins were formed during the Late Tortonian—Early Messinian, close to the Betic Seaway closure. Sulphate isotope compositions and Sr isotopic ratios of the Ribera Gypsum Mb, at the base of the Rambla Salada Fm (Fortuna basin), match those of the Late Messinian selenite gypsum beds in San Miguel de Salinas, in the near Bajo Segura basin (40 km to the East), and other Messinian Salinity Crisis gypsum deposits in the Mediterranean. According to these geochemical indicators and the uncertainty of the chronology of this unit, the assignment of the Rambla Salada Fm to the MSC cannot be ruled out.     

An OLS regression model for context-aware tile prefetching in a web map cache

The increasing popularity of web map services has motivated the development of more scalable services in the spatial data infrastructures. Tiled map services have emerged as a scalable alternative to traditional map services. Instead of rendering map images on the fly, a collection of pre-generated image tiles can be served very fast from a server-side cache. However, during the start-up of the service, the cache is initially empty and users experience a poor quality of service. Tile prefetching attempts to improve hit rates by proactively fetching map images without waiting for client requests.

While most popular prefetching policies in traditional web caching consider only the previous access history to make predictions, significant improvements could be achieved in web mapping by taking into account the background geographic information.

This work proposes a regressive model to predict which areas are likely to be requested in the future based on spatial cross-correlation between an unconstrained catalog of geographic features and a record of past cache requests. Tiles that are anticipated to be most frequently requested can be pre-generated and cached for faster retrieval. Trace-driven simulations with several million cache requests from two different nation-wide public web map services in Spain demonstrate that accurate predictions and performance gains can be obtained with the proposed model.     

Star-formation modes in the solar neighborhood

We perform a study into the spatial and kinematical distribution of young open clusters in the solar neighborhood, distinguishing between Gould Belt and local Galactic disk members. We use a previous estimate of the structural parameters of both systems obtained from a sample of O to B6 stars from Hipparcos. The two star-forming regions that dominate and give the Gould Belt its characteristic inclined shape show a striking difference in their content of star clusters: while Ori OB1 is richly populated by open clusters, not a single one can be found within the boundaries of Sco OB2. This is mirrored in velocity space, translating again into an abundance of clusters in the region of the kinematic space populated by the members of Ori OB1, and a marginal number of them associated with Sco OB2. We interpret all these differences by characterizing the Orion region as a cluster complex typically surrounded by a stellar halo, and the Sco-Cen region as an OB association in the outskirts of the complex. The different contents of star clusters, the different heights above the Galactic plane and the different residual velocities of Ori OB1 and Sco OB2 can be explained in terms of their relative position with respect to the density maximum of the Local Arm in the solar neighborhood. The origin of this feature could have been the interaction of a density wave with the local interstellar medium close to the Galactic co-rotation radius.     

The Relegation Algorithm

The relegation algorithm extends the method of normalization by Lie transformations. Given a Hamiltonian that is a power series = ₀+ ₁+ ... of a small parameter , normalization constructs a map which converts the principal part ₀into an integral of the transformed system — relegation does the same for an arbitrary function [G]. If the Lie derivative induced by [G] is semi-simple, a double recursion produces the generator of the relegating transformation. The relegation algorithm is illustrated with an elementary example borrowed from galactic dynamics; the exercise serves as a standard against which to test software implementations. Relegation is also applied to the more substantial example of a Keplerian system perturbed by radiation pressure emanating from a rotating source.This revised version was published online in October 2005 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Superposition of tectonic structures leading elongated intramontane basin: the Alhabia basin (Internal Zones,Betic Cordillera)

International Journal of Earth Sciences - The relief of the Betic Cordillera was formed since the late Serravallian inducing the development of intramontane basins. The Alhabia basin, situated in...