From krill to convenience stores: Forecasting the economic and ecological effects of fisheries management on the US West Coast

There is a need to better understand the linkages between marine ecosystems and the human communities and economies that depend on these systems. Here those linkages are drawn for the California Current on the US West Coast, by combining a fishery ecosystem model (Atlantis) with an economic model (IO-PAC) that traces how changes in seafood landings impact the broader economy. The potential effects of broad fisheries management options are explored, including status quo management, switching effort from trawl to other gears, and spatial management scenarios. Relative to Status Quo, the other scenarios here involved short-term ex-vessel revenue losses, primarily to the bottom trawl fleet. Other fleets, particularly the fixed gear fleet that uses pots and demersal longlines, gained revenue in some scenarios, though spatial closures of Rockfish Conservation Areas reduced revenue to fixed gear fleets. Processor and wholesaler revenue tracked trends in the bottom trawl fleet, which accounted for 58% of total landings by value. Income impacts (employee compensation and earnings of business owners) on the broader economy mirrored the revenue trends. The long-term forecast (15 years) from the Atlantis ecosystem model predicted substantial stock rebuilding and increases in fleet catch. The 15 year projection of Status Quo suggested an additional ∼$27 million in revenue for the fisheries sectors, and an additional $23 million in income and 385 jobs in the broader economy, roughly a 25% increase. Linking the ecological and economic models here has allowed evaluation of fishery management policies using multiple criteria, and comparison of potential economic and conservation trade-offs that stem from management actions.     

Biotite dissolution and Cr(VI) reduction at elevated pH and ionic strength

The effects of elevated pH, ionic strength, and temperature on sediments in the vadose zone are of primary importance in modeling contaminant transport and understanding the environmental impact of tank leakage at nuclear waste storage facilities like those of the Hanford site. This study was designed to investigate biotite dissolution under simulated high level waste (HLW) conditions and its impact on Cr(VI) reduction and immobilization. Biotite dissolution increased with NaOH concentrations in the range of 0.1 to 2 mol L^-1. There was a corresponding release of K, Fe, Si, and Al to solution, with Si and Al showing a complex pattern due to the formation of secondary zeolite minerals. Dissolved Fe concentrations were an order of magnitude lower than the other elements, possibly due to the formation of green rust and Fe(OH)₂. The reduction of Cr(VI) to Cr(III) also increased with increased NaOH concentration. A homogeneous reduction of chromate by Fe(II)_aq released through biotite dissolution was probably the primary pathway responsible for this reaction. Greater ionic strengths increased biotite dissolution and consequently increased Fe(II)_aq release and Cr(VI) removal. The results indicated that HLW would cause phyllosilicate dissolution and the formation of secondary precipitates that would have a major impact on radionuclide and contaminant transport in the vadose zone at the Hanford site.     

气候变暖条件下,中(高)亚洲地区不稳定型冻土的巨大挑战和创新解决方案:——来自首届亚洲冻土大会及会后青藏高原考察的总结报告

首届亚洲冻土大会于2006年8月5~16日在兰州、青藏线和拉萨顺利召开.大会讨论主要包括以下5个议题:1)冻土工程;2)山区和高原冻融灾害及冰缘环境;3)冰冻圈的气候与环境条件;4)冻土水文、寒区水资源及土地利用,和;5)冻土监测、制图及模拟.国内论文大多集中于青藏铁路各种科技创新和工程(示范)建设方面.中亚冻土分类、制图和监测研讨会明确了制定统一的中亚地区冻土图的计划和实施方案.会议期间,国内主要新闻媒体对全球15位著名冻土学家进行了联合采访.大约80位中外代表参加了青藏(公)铁路沿线考察,并于8月15日在拉萨举行青藏铁路工程和环境问题讨论会.专家一致认为,青藏铁路所采取的冻土工程措施基本上是恰当、有效的,能够保证青藏铁路路基的长期稳定性.但是,沿线寒区环境保护问题还任重道远,需要尽快进行综合管(治)理,以达到青藏地区社会经济和谐、持续发展的目标.     

Analysis of Fault Permeability Using Mapping and Flow Modeling, Hickory Sandstone Aquifer, Central Texas

Reservoir compartments, typical targets for infill well locations, are commonly created by faults that may reduce permeability. A narrow fault may consist of a complex assemblage of deformation elements that result in spatially variable and anisotropic permeabilities. We report on the permeability structure of a km-scale fault sampled through drilling a faulted siliciclastic aquifer in central Texas. Probe and whole-core permeabilities, serial CAT scans, and textural and structural data from the selected core samples are used to understand permeability structure of fault zones and develop predictive models of fault zone permeability. Using numerical flow simulation, it is possible to predict permeability anisotropy associated with faults and evaluate the effect of individual deformation elements in the overall permeability tensor. We found relationships between the permeability of the host rock and those of the highly deformed (HD) fault-elements according to the fault throw. The lateral continuity and predictable permeability of the HD fault elements enhance capability for estimating the effects of subseismic faulting on fluid flow in low-shale reservoirs.     

Kinematic hardening predictions of large stress-reversals in 3-D test on loose sand

A rotational kinematic hardening constitutive model with the capability of predicting the behavior of soil during 3-D stress-reversals has been developed. An existing elasto-plastic constitutive model, the Single Hardening Model, utilizing isotropic hardening serves as the basic framework in these formulations. To this framework is added the capability of handling cross-anisotropic behavior as well as the kinematic hardening mechanism to capture inherent anisotropy of the sand in addition to the large stress-reversals. The model involves thirteen parameters, which can be determined from simple laboratory experiments, such as isotropic compression, drained triaxial compression and triaxial extension tests. The results from a series of true triaxial tests with large stress-reversals performed on loose cross-anisotropic Santa Monica Beach sand are employed for comparison with predictions.     

The influence of Atlantic hurricanes on Southern Ontario’s precipitation extremes

Little is known about the influence of hurricanes on precipitation extremes (PEs) in Southern Ontario, Canada. We examine PEs and their spatial–temporal link with hurricanes events in Southern Ontario during the period of 1950–2000. On average, 5.4 PEs or 11 % of the 50 wettest days in the selected five locations occurred under the influence of hurricanes within this 51-year period. Our results indicate hurricane-influenced PEs are most frequent in September and derive from storms that had reached major hurricane status (>50 m/s) at some point during their lifetime. An absence of landfalling hurricanes in Southern Ontario during the 1960s to 1980s suggests either that the direct impact of hurricanes occurs on a multidecadal time scale or that recent years are experiencing unprecedented change.     

Land use,soil erosion,and sediment yield at Pinto Lake,California: comparison of a simplified USLE model with the lake sediment record

Quantitative interpretation of past land use using palaeolimnological records of sediment yield requires an appropriate soil erosion model. This paper describes the application of a simplified USLE model, comparing the predicted sediment yield with the lake sediment record at Pinto Lake (Central Coast, California). Our principal finding is that simplified USLE prediction, without correction for sediment transport capacity, accurately predicts fine sediment yield. Because the fine component of the soil is delivered far more efficiently than the coarse component, this and related soil erosion models can more readily be applied to the interpretation of palaeolimnological records than to estimation of total sediment yield, for which reliable estimation of hillslope and fluvial sediment storage are more important. The focus on fine sediment also means that the model output is optimal for assessing past ecological impacts of soil erosion on stream water turbidity and particulate transport of pollutants and nutrients.     

Radiocarbon and 230Th data reveal rapid redistribution and temporal changes in sediment focussing at a North Atlantic drift

In locations of rapid sediment accumulation receiving substantial amounts of laterally transported material the timescales of transport and accurate quantification of the transported material are at the focus of intense research. Here we present radiocarbon data obtained on co-occurring planktic foraminifera, marine haptophyte biomarkers (alkenones) and total organic carbon (TOC) coupled with excess Thorium-230 (²³⁰Th_xs) measurements on four sediment cores retrieved in 1649–2879 m water depth from two such high accumulation drift deposits in the Northeast Atlantic, Björn and Gardar Drifts. While ²³⁰Th_xs inventories imply strong sediment focussing, no age offsets are observed between planktic foraminifera and alkenones, suggesting that redistribution of sediments is rapid and occurs soon after formation of marine organic matter, or that transported material contains negligible amounts of alkenones. An isotopic mass balance calculation based on radiocarbon concentrations of co-occurring sediment components leads us to estimate that transported sediment components contain up to 12% of fossil organic matter that is free of or very poor in alkenones, but nevertheless appears to consist of a mixture of fresh and eroded fossil material. Considering all available constraints to characterize transported material, our results show that although focussing factors calculated from bulk sediment ²³⁰Th_xs inventories may allow useful approximations of bulk redeposition, they do not provide a unique estimate of the amount of each laterally transported sediment component. Furthermore, our findings provide evidence that the occurrence of lateral sediment redistribution alone does not always hinder the use of multiple proxies but that individual sediment fractions are affected to variable extents by sediment focussing.     

Recent Improvements to IERS Bulletin A Combination and Prediction

Driven by a need for increased accuracy in real-time Earth orientation parameters (EOPs), the Bulletin A (Rapid Servce and Predictions) of the International Earth Rotation Service (IERS) has recently made several major changes to its combination and prediction procedures. Changes to the process ob combining multi-technique results include creation of a daily Bulletin A updata, inclusion of several new data sets, and use of polar motion rantes for the latest epoch. Notably, the contributions from GPS observations have grown steadily in significance, both for polar motion and Universal Time (UT1). The prediction procedure has, in turn, benefited from these changes as well as improvements to the polar motion prediction model. As a result, demanding real-time applications, such as for satellite orbit extrapolations should observe a major improvement in the accuracy of our real-time EOP products. All results, together with supporting and diagnostic information, are available at the website http://maia.usno.navy.mil. The maximum EOP errors (root-mean-squared sense) that a real-time user would experience using the latest available update of Bulletin A are currently estimated to be ∼0.9 milliarcseconds (mas) for polar motion and ∼0.15 milliseconds (ms) for UT1-UTC. The data latency (the lag since the most recent observations) for EOP predictions need not exceed ∼41 hours for users who avail themselves of the daily updates. Over the past four years, the accuracy for real-time applications has improved by nearly a factor of 4 in polar motion and a factor of 10 in UT1. This is primarily due to the large reduction in data latency, which in turn is mostly possible due to the Rapid product delivery of the International GPS Service (IGS) (see Mireault et al, 1999). ? 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

An inexpensive sampler for obtaining bulk sediment cores

A large-volume core sampler for sediment—muck substrates is described. The sampler can acquire a discrete sediment core of 10 cm in diameter and up to 1.5 m long. Such samplers are needed to collect the volume necessary for analysis of sediments for contaminants, bulk density, or radioactive dating. The sampler consists of a 1- to 2-m length of PVC pipe mounted below a threaded metal pipe air exhaust—intake assembly. This assembly is quick-connected to standard threaded lengths (300 cm) of water pipe (2 cm diam) or electrical conduit so that bottom sediments in water depths of up to 10 m can be sampled. The core sampler is hand-operated and pushed into bottom sediments from a boat. It does not have to be triggered remotely because of the one-way modified check valve in the air exhaust—intake assembly. After the sampler is extracted from the sediment, the extension handle can be quickly removed for ease of sampler handling, and the core can be extruded from the PVC tube by air pressure.Contribution of the National Sedimentation Laboratory, Agricultural Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Oxford, Mississippi 38655, U.S.A.