More trees in the tropics

Repeat photography is the process of rephotographing the same scene that appears in an earlier photograph. As a methodology, repeat photography is a valuable tool for investigating and assessing landscape change. Beyond the disadvantages of scale, composition, areal coverage and temporal punctuation, the method is useful. Photographs are comprehensive views that offer a 'contextualized' landscape to examine. As well, the unexpected may be revealed through the process. My research in Honduras using this method led me to find a vegetation increase, rather than the decrease that was expected of a tropical area. A few example photographs illustrate the variety of manifestations this increase takes.     

Use of the geometric average for effective permeability estimation

The geometric average is often used to estimate the effective (large-scale) permeability from smaller-scale samples. In doing so, one assumes that the geometric average is a good estimator of the geometric mean. Problems with this estimator arise, however, when one or more of the samples has a very low value. The estimate obtained becomes very sensitive to the small values in the sample set, while the true effective permeability may be only weakly dependent on these small values. Several alternative methods of estimating the geometric mean are suggested. In particular, a more robust estimator of the geometric mean, the j^th Winsorized mean, is proposed and several of its properties are compared with those of the geometric average.     

Late quaternary sea‐level changes,crustal movements and coastal evolution in Northumberland,UK

Northumberland lies in the transition between Holocene emergence and submergence and is thus a critical zone for testing models of isostatic rebound. We have collected data from this area to reconstruct relative sea‐level changes and lateral coastline movements for the last 14000 y. These are deposits from tidal marsh, back‐barrier wetland and terrestrial environments producing 47 sea‐level index points from 12 sites. There is no unequivocal evidence for Late Devensian sea levels above present and the reliable sea‐level index points are restricted between −6 m and +2.5 m relative to present and 9.0–2.5 kyr cal. BP. Analysis of these quantifies differential responses to glacio‐ and hydroisostatic rebound, with the northern sites recording a mid‐Holocene sea‐level maximum ca. 2.5 m above present, whereas the southern sites show a maximum ca. 0.5 m above present. These observations show a reasonable fit with the predictions from quantitative models of glacio and hydroisostatic rebound, but there is currently no unique solution of Earth and ice model parameters that will explain all the sea‐level observations. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Fire and other disturbances of the forests in Mount Rainier National Park

The recent history of catastrophic disturbances in forests was reconstructed at Mount Rainier National Park. Basic data were ages of trees based on ring counts of early seral conifer species and maps of age-class boundaries from field work and aerial photographs. Maps illustrate age classes of the forests and show disturbances from fires, snow avalanches, and lahars (volcanic mudflows). Fires are by far the most important major disturbers, followed by snow avalanches and lahars. Fires over 250 ha in size are called fire events. Burns over 1000 ha, which may have been one fire or a series of fires within a short time, are called fire episodes. Important fire events or episodes occurred in the years 1230, 1303, 1403, 1503, 1628, 1688, 1703, 1803, 1825, 1856, 1858, 1872, 1886, 1894, 1930, and 1934 A.D. The largest fire episode was in 1230; it affected approximately 47% of the forests in the park. The majority of the forests are over 350 yr old, and several stands are over 1000 yr old. Stands 350 yr and 100 to 200 yr in age are the most extensive age classes in the park. Three fire frequency indices are compared. None describe fire frequency at Mount Rainier well. Natural fire rotation was estimated at about 434 yr. All but two episodes of major fires since 1300 A.D. correspond well with major droughts reconstructed for locations east of the Cascade Range crest. Impacts of humans on the disturbance regime may have increased the frequency of fire in the 1850–1900 period, followed by a decrease in frequency after 1900. Fuel build-up as a result of fire suppression should have no significant impact on fire frequency, since fires are relatively infrequent and fuels accumulate naturally.     

Combining airborne laser scanning and Landsat data for statistical modeling of soil carbon and tree biomass in Tanzanian Miombo woodlands

Background

Soil carbon and biomass depletion can be used to identify and quantify degraded soils, and by using remote sensing, there is potential to map soil conditions over large areas. Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager satellite data and airborne laser scanning data were evaluated separately and in combination for modeling soil organic carbon, above ground tree biomass and below ground tree biomass. The test site is situated in the Liwale district in southeastern Tanzania and is dominated by Miombo woodlands. Tree data from 15 m radius field-surveyed plots and samples of soil carbon down to a depth of 30 cm were used as reference data for tree biomass and soil carbon estimations.

Results

Cross-validated plot level error (RMSE) for predicting soil organic carbon was 28% using only Landsat 8, 26% using laser only, and 23% for the combination of the two. The plot level error for above ground tree biomass was 66% when using only Landsat 8, 50% for laser and 49% for the combination of Landsat 8 and laser data. Results for below ground tree biomass were similar to above ground biomass. Additionally it was found that an early dry season satellite image was preferable for modelling biomass while images from later in the dry season were better for modelling soil carbon.

Conclusion

The results show that laser data is superior to Landsat 8 when predicting both soil carbon and biomass above and below ground in landscapes dominated by Miombo woodlands. Furthermore, the combination of laser data and Landsat data were marginally better than using laser data only.

     

Origin of the northern Atlantic's Heinrich events

As first noted by Heinrich, 1988, glacial age sediments in the eastern part of the northern Atlantic contain layers with unusually high ratios of ice-rafted lithic fragments to foraminifera shells. He estimated that these layers are spaced at intervals of roughly 10 000 years. In this paper we present detailed information documenting the existence of the upper five of these layers in ODP core 609 from 50° N and 24° W. Their ages are respectively 15 000 radiocarbon years, 20 000 radiocarbon years, 27 000 radiocarbon years, about 40 000 years, and about 50 000 years. We also note that the high lithic fragment to foram ratio is the result of a near absence of shells in these layers. Although we are not of one mind regarding the origin of these layers, we lean toward an explanation that the Heinrich layers are debris released during the melting of massive influxes of icebergs into the northern Atlantic. These sudden inputs may be the result of surges along the eastern margin of the Laurentide ice sheet.Contribution to Clima Locarno — Past and Present Climate Dynamics; Conference September 1990, Swiss Academy of Sciences — National Climate Program