A field sampling strategy for semivariogram inference of fractures in rock outcrops

The stochastic continuum (SC) representation is one common approach for simulating the effects of fracture heterogeneity in groundwater flow and transport models. These SC reservoir models are generally developed using geostatistical methods (e.g., kriging or sequential simulation) that rely on the model semivariogram to describe the spatial variability of each continuum. Although a number of strategies for sampling spatial distributions have been published in the literature, little attention has been paid to the optimization of sampling in resource- or access-limited environments. Here we present a strategy for estimating the minimum sample spacing needed to define the spatial distribution of fractures on a vertical outcrop of basalt, located in the Box Canyon, east Snake River Plain, Idaho. We used fracture maps of similar basalts from the published literature to test experimentally the effects of different sample spacings on the resulting semivariogram model. Our final field sampling strategy was based on the lowest sample density that reproduced the semivariogram of the exhaustively sampled fracture map. Application of the derived sampling strategy to an outcrop in our field area gave excellent results, and illustrates the utility of this type of sample optimization. The method will work for developing a sampling plan for any intensive property, provided prior information for a similar domain is available; for example, fracture maps or ortho-rectified photographs from analogous rock types could be used to plan for sampling of a fractured rock outcrop.     

Traditional ecological knowledge and community resilience to environmental extremes: A case study in Doñana,SW Spain

Research in the last decade has emphasised the potential contribution of traditional ecological knowledge to cope with challenges from global environmental change. This research examines the role of traditional ecological knowledge and shared systems of beliefs in building long-term social–ecological resilience to environmental extremes. Data were collected from 13 villages of the Doñana region, southwestern Spain, through interviews, focus groups, and systematic reviews of historical archives. First, we assess adaptive practices to cope with environmental change. Then, we use historical records of religious ceremonies (1577–1956) to reconstruct collective responses to environmental extremes. Our results (1) show how environmental extremes could induce social and economic crises through declines in ecosystem services and (2) identify practices to cope with recurrent disturbance and institutional devices developed in response to environmental extremes. We conclude that traditional ecological knowledge and shared systems of beliefs can facilitate collective responses to crises and contribute to the maintenance of long-term resilience of social–ecological systems.     

Road investment as enabling local economic development? Evidence from a rural Philippine fishing village

This paper investigates how efforts to achieve local economic growth conflicted with long‐term sustainable resource use when road accessibility was improved between a supply area – the households and household firms in a Philippine fishing village, Dinahican, previously hampered by very poor transport conditions and accessibility – and its major market. Findings indicate that improved road access to big fish markets stimulated investment in production enhancing inputs, which allowed increased fish landings and sales outside Dinahican, together with employment and incomes. At the same time, poorly implemented fisheries resource management resulted in overfishing in municipal waters and obvious disparities in access to productive resources. Thus, while road investment in relatively inaccessible rural resource rich areas may spur economic development as an underutilized production potential is released, it can facilitate resource depletion and intensify an unequal distribution of benefits if the enforcement of laws and regulations is lacking. In the case of Dinahican, coordination between infrastructure supply and the implementation and enforcement of fisheries resource management is found to be urgently needed.     

Surface runoff and soil erosion under eucalyptus and oak canopy

To assess potential differences in stormwater runoff and sediment yield between plots of blue gum eucalyptus (Eucalyptus globulus) and coast live oak (Quercus agrifolia), we measured runoff, sediment yield, water repellency and soil moisture at eight paired sites. Eucalyptus has been associated in many studies worldwide with elevated soil water repellency and increased runoff, a likely contributor to soil erosion. To better understand these connections and their relationship to land cover, there is a need for studies employing either rainfall simulators or natural rainfall. Our research employs the latter, and was subject to contrasting hydrologic conditions in the two years of the study. Fieldwork was conducted from October 2006 to February 2008 in the San Francisco Bay Area of central California. During the 2006–2007 winter wet season, runoff was significantly higher under eucalypts than at paired oak sites, and in the early phases of the season was connected with elevated water repellency. However, sediment yield at all sites during the 2006–2007 hydrologic year was below the detection limit of the Gerlach sediment collection traps, possibly due to a limited wet season, and only appeared as suspended sediment captured in overflow buckets. Intensive rainfall events in January 2008 however created substantial runoff of sediment and litter with significantly greater yield at oak sites compared to paired eucalyptus sites. Water repellency likely had little effect on runoff during these events, and the primary cause of greater erosion under oaks is the thinner cover of leaf litter in comparison to eucalyptus. Our study is limited to undisturbed sites with intact litter cover that have not experienced recent wildfires; if disturbed, we would expect a different picture given the propensity for crown fires of eucalypts, enhancement of rainsplash erosion, and the likely greater potential for stream‐connected sediment yield from post‐disturbance soil erosion events.     

Effects of chlorpyrifos on cholinesterase activity and stress markers in the tropical reef fish Acanthochromis polyacanthus

Tropical coastal ecosystems, including the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) of Australia are increasingly threatened by pollution; yet few studies have investigated the sensitivity of GBR species to these pollutants. Here we exposed juveniles of the tropical reef fish Acanthochromis polyacanthus (spiny damselfish) to three concentrations of the insecticide chlorpyrifos (CPF) and measured (i) muscle cholinesterase (ChE) activity; (ii) hepatic glutathione-S-transferase (GST) activity; and (iii) coenzyme Q (CoQ) redox balance, after 6h and 96h of exposure. After 96h, muscle ChE activity was significantly inhibited by 26%, 49% and 53% when fish were exposed to 1, 10 or 100μg/L CPF, respectively. Muscle ChE characterization revealed three types of ChEs, including two atypical forms. Hepatic CoQ antioxidant form significantly increased at 10μg/L after 6h of exposure, potentially demonstrating an early response to CPF-induced oxidative stress in liver. Hepatic GST was not affected by CPF exposure.     

Forecasting Natural Aquifer Discharge Using a Numerical Model and Convolution

If the nature of groundwater sources and sinks can be determined or predicted, the data can be used to forecast natural aquifer discharge. We present a procedure to forecast the relative contribution of individual aquifer sources and sinks to natural aquifer discharge. Using these individual aquifer recharge components, along with observed aquifer heads for each January, we generate a 1‐year, monthly spring discharge forecast for the upcoming year with an existing numerical model and convolution. The results indicate that a forecast of natural aquifer discharge can be developed using only the dominant aquifer recharge sources combined with the effects of aquifer heads (initial conditions) at the time the forecast is generated. We also estimate how our forecast will perform in the future using a jackknife procedure, which indicates that the future performance of the forecast is good (Nash‐Sutcliffe efficiency of 0.81). We develop a forecast and demonstrate important features of the procedure by presenting an application to the Eastern Snake Plain Aquifer in southern Idaho.     

Quasi‐continuous reservoir monitoring with surface seismic data

We present an approach that creates the possibility of reservoir monitoring on a quasi‐continuous basis using surface seismic data. Current strategies and logistics for seismic data acquisition impose restrictions on the calendar‐time temporal resolution obtainable for a given surface‐seismic time‐lapse monitoring program. One factor that restricts the implementation of a quasi‐continuous monitoring program using conventional strategies is the time it takes to acquire a complete survey. Here quasi‐continuous monitoring describes the process of reservoir monitoring at short‐time intervals. Our approach circumvents the restriction by requiring only a subset of complete survey data each time an image of the reservoir is needed using surface seismic data. Ideally, the time interval between survey subset acquisitions should be short so that changes in the reservoir properties are small. The accumulated data acquired are used to estimate the unavailable data at the monitor survey time and the combined recorded and estimated data are used to produce an image of the subsurface for monitoring. We will illustrate the effectiveness of our approach using 2D and 3D synthetic seismic data and 3D field seismic data. We will explain the benefits and drawbacks of the proposed approach.     

Northstar-Geology,Exploration History,and Development Status,Beaufort Sea,Alaska

Exploration for oil at Northstar has been long and costly. Northstar leases were first acquired in 1979 at a joint state and federal sale by Shell Oil, Amerada Hess, and Texas Eastern. The Northstar Unit is 6 mi offshore and about 4 mi northeast of the Point McIntyre Field. Oil was first discovered in Shell's Seal Island 1 in 1983. Five additional appraisal wells were drilled (1983-1986) from two man-made gravel islands in 40 ft of water. Early engineering estimates put the cost of development at $ 1.6 billion. In February 1995, BP Exploration (Alaska) acquired a 98 % interest in the Northstar Unit from Amerada Hess and Shell Oil. When developed by BP, Northstar will be the first oil produced from federal leases in Alaska. To date, the oil industry has invested in excess of $ 140 million in exploration and appraisal operations. An additional $ 90 million was spent on lease bonus bids. The giant Prudhoe Bay and Kuparuk Fields lie along the Barrow Arch. This arch is bounded to the north by a rift margin that deepens into the present-day offshore region. Northstar is located among a series of down-stepping faults off this northern rift margin of the Prudhoe Kuparuk high. The structure is a gently south-dipping northwest-trending faulted anticline. The crest of the structure is located near 10,850 ft subsea. The primary reservoir is the Ivishak Formation (325 ft thick) of the Sadlerochit Group. This is the same primary reservoir at Prudhoe Bay, approximately 12 mi to the south. At Northstar the Ivishak is a high-energy, coarse-grained conglomeratic facies of the Ivishak Formation. The primary lithology is a pebbly chert to quartz conglomerate with occasional sandstone. This very high net to gross reservoir appears to contain no regionally continuous permeability barriers. Cementation has reduced primary porosity to less than 15 %. Accurate porosity estimates are difficult to make due to the coarse-grained nature of the lithology and the presence of kaolinite and microporous chert. Permeability is highly variable, but averages 10 to 100 mDarcies. Oil is a very light and volatile 42 API crude with approximately 2,100 ft3 of gas per stock tank barrel of oil. This oil is very different from the heavier oils (26) found to the south in Prudhoe Bay. Estimated recoverable oil reserves range from 100 to 160 million barrels. A free-standing drilling rig is required at Northstar because the reserves are beyond extended-reach drilling techniques from shore-based facilities. The current development plan is to expand the existing Seal Island to about 5 acres. This is significantly less than Endicott's 40-acre island. The proposed drilling and produc tion island will be accessed by summer barges and winter ice roads. Oil, gas, and water will be processed at a stand-alone facility and then sent to shore via a subsurface pipeline. Northstar will have the first Arctic subsea pipeline in Alaska to transport oil to shore facilities (TAPS). Preliminary tests in Spring 1996 were very successful in demonstrating the technology to successfully bury a subsea pipeline safely in the Arctic.