Sediment related impacts of climate change and reservoir development in the Lower Mekong River Basin: a case study of the Nam Ou Basin,Lao PDR

This study applies the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT), with climate (precipitation and temperature) outputs from four general circulation models (GCMs) and a regional circulation model (PRECIS), to evaluate (1) the impacts of climate change on reservoir sedimentation and (2) the impacts of climate change and reservoir development on sediment outflow in the Nam Ou River Basin located in northern Laos. Three reservoir–density scenarios, namely one reservoir (1R), three reservoirs in series (3R), and five reservoirs in series (5R), were evaluated for both no climate change and climate change conditions. The results show that under no climate change conditions, by 2070, around 17, 14, and 15% of the existing reservoir storage volume in the basin will be lost for 1R, 3R, and 5R scenarios, respectively. Notably, under climate change scenario with highest changes in erosion and sediment outflux from the basin, the additional reduction in reservoir storage capacity due to sedimentation is estimated to be nearly 26% for 1R, 21% for 3R, and 23% for 5R. Climate change alone is projected to change annual sediment outflux from the basin by ?20 to 151%. In contrast, the development of reservoirs in the basin will reduce the annual sediment outflux from the basin varying from 44 to 80% for 1R, 44–81% for 3R, and 66–89% for 5R, considering climate change. In conclusion, climate change is expected to increase the sediment yield of the Nam Ou Basin, resulting in faster reduction of the reservoir’s storage capacity. Sediment yield from the Nam Ou River Basin is likely to decrease significantly due to the trapping of sediment by planned reservoirs. The impact of reservoirs is much more significant than the impact of climate change on the sediment outflow of the basin. Hence, it is necessary to investigate appropriate reservoir sediment management strategies.     

Infilling of sparse 3D data for 3D focusing operator estimation

Seismic migration can be formulated in terms of two consecutive downward extrapolation steps: refocusing the receivers and refocusing the sources. Applying only the first focusing step with an estimate of the focusing operators results in a common focal point (CFP) gather for each depth point at a reflecting boundary. The CFP gathers, in combination with the estimates of the focusing operators, can be used in an iterative procedure to obtain the correct operators. However, current 3D seismic data acquisition geometries do not contain the dense spatial sampling required for calculation of full 3D CFP gathers. We report on the construction of full 3D CFP gathers using a non‐full 3D acquisition geometry. The proposed method uses a reflector‐orientated data infill procedure based on the azimuthal redundancy of the reflection data. The results on 3D numerical data in this paper show that full 3D CFP gathers, which are kinematically and dynamically correct for the target event, can be obtained. These gathers can be used for iterative updating of the 3D focusing operators.     

Efficiency of different mesh sizes for isolating fossil chironomids for stable isotope and radiocarbon analyses

We examined the effects of sieving with different mesh sizes on the efficiency of processing fossil chironomids from lake sediments for isotope analyses. Results obtained for three different sediments indicate that each of the studied sieve fractions (100–150, 150–200, 200–250, 250–300, >300 μm) contain a similar proportion of the overall mass of chironomid fossils in a sample. However, the sorting time needed to separate chironomids from other sieve residue is disproportionately large for smaller mesh sizes. Employing sieves with a 200-μm rather than the 100-μm mesh commonly used for standard palaeoecological analyses of fossil chironomids decreased processing time for a given mass of fossils by 30–58% in our study. For optimizing the efficiency of chironomid sample processing for stable isotope and radiocarbon analysis we therefore recommend a 200-μm mesh size sieve, although the sorting of all >100-μm fractions may be necessary in sediments with low chironomid abundances. Excluding certain small taxa from isotope analysis, may structurally bias isotope values of samples. Therefore, further studies on taxon-specific isotope analysis are required to quantify these effects.     

A Bayesian Analysis of the Correlations Among Sunspot Cycles

Sunspot numbers form a comprehensive, long-duration proxy of solar activity and have been used numerous times to empirically investigate the properties of the solar cycle. A number of correlations have been discovered over the 24 cycles for which observational records are available. Here we carry out a sophisticated statistical analysis of the sunspot record that reaffirms these correlations, and sets up an empirical predictive framework for future cycles. An advantage of our approach is that it allows for rigorous assessment of both the statistical significance of various cycle features and the uncertainty associated with predictions. We summarize the data into three sequential relations that estimate the amplitude, duration, and time of rise to maximum for any cycle, given the values from the previous cycle. We find that there is no indication of a persistence in predictive power beyond one cycle, and we conclude that the dynamo does not retain memory beyond one cycle. Based on sunspot records up to October 2011, we obtain, for Cycle 24, an estimated maximum smoothed monthly sunspot number of 97±15, to occur in January??C?February 2014 ± six months.     

A COMPREHENSIVE MANAGEMENT PLAN FOR COASTAL LOUISIANA

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The Winchcombe meteorite—A regolith breccia from a rubble pile CM chondrite asteroid

The Winchcombe meteorite is a CM chondrite breccia composed of eight distinct lithological units plus a cataclastic matrix. The degree of aqueous alteration varies between intensely altered CM2.0 and moderately altered CM2.6. Although no lithology dominates, three heavily altered rock types (CM2.1–2.3) represent >70 area%. Tochilinite–cronstedtite intergrowths (TCIs) are common in several lithologies. Their compositions can vary significantly, even within a single lithology, which can prevent a clear assessment of alteration extent if only TCI composition is considered. We suggest that this is due to early alteration under localized geochemical microenvironments creating a diversity of compositions and because later reprocessing was incomplete, leaving a record of the parent body's fluid history. In Winchcombe, the fragments of primary accretionary rock are held within a cataclastic matrix (~15 area%). This material is impact-derived fallback debris. Its grain size and texture suggest that the disruption of the original parent asteroid responded by intergranular fracture at grain sizes <100 μm, while larger phases, such as whole chondrules, splintered apart. Re-accretion formed a poorly lithified body. During atmospheric entry, the Winchcombe meteoroid broke apart with new fractures preferentially cutting through the weaker cataclastic matrix and separating the breccia into its component clasts. The strength of the cataclastic matrix imparts a control on the survival of CM chondrite meteoroids. Winchcombe's unweathered state and diversity of lithologies make it an ideal sample for exploring the geological history of the CM chondrite group.     

Modelling the Global Solar Corona II: Coronal Evolution and Filament Chirality Comparison

This paper considers the hemispheric pattern of solar filaments using newly developed simulations of the real photospheric and 3D coronal magnetic fields over a six-month period, on a global scale. The magnetic field direction in the simulation is compared directly with the chirality of observed filaments, at their observed locations. In our model the coronal field evolves through a continuous sequence of nonlinear force-free equilibria, in response to the changing photospheric boundary conditions and the emergence of new magnetic flux. In total 119 magnetic bipoles with properties matching observed active regions are inserted. These bipoles emerge twisted and inject magnetic helicity into the solar atmosphere. When we choose the sign of this active-region helicity to match that observed in each hemisphere, the model produces the correct chirality for up to 96% of filaments, including exceptions to the hemispheric pattern. If the emerging bipoles have zero helicity, or helicity of the opposite sign, then this percentage is much reduced. In addition, the simulation produces a higher proportion of filaments with the correct chirality after longer times. This indicates that a key element in the evolution of the coronal field is its long-term memory, and the build-up and transport of helicity from low to high latitudes over many months. It highlights the importance of continuous evolution of the coronal field, rather than independent extrapolations at different times. This has significant consequences for future modelling such as that related to the origin and development of coronal mass ejections.