The role of massive AGB stars in the early solar system composition

Abstract— We demonstrate that a massive asymptotic giant branch (AGB) star is a good candidate as the main source of short‐lived radionuclides in the early solar system. Recent identification of massive (4–8 M⊙) AGB stars in the galaxy, which are both lithium‐ and rubidium‐rich, demonstrates that these stars experience proton captures at the base of the convective envelope (hot bottom burning), together with high‐neutron density nucleosynthesis with ²²Ne as a neutron source in the He shell and efficient dredge‐up of the processed material. A model of a 6.5 M⊙ star of solar metallicity can simultaneously match the abundances of ²⁶Al, ⁴¹Ca, ⁶⁰Fe, and ¹⁰⁷Pd inferred to have been present in the solar nebula by using a dilution factor of 1 part of AGB material per 300 parts of original solar nebula material, and taking into account a time interval between injection of the short‐lived nuclides and consolidation of the first meteorites equal to 0.53 Myr. Such a polluting source does not overproduce ⁵³Mn, as supernova models do, and only marginally affects isotopic ratios of stable elements. It is usually argued that it is unlikely that the short‐lived radionuclides in the early solar system came from an AGB star because these stars are rarely found in star forming regions, however, we think that further interdisciplinary studies are needed to address the fundamental problem of the birth of our solar system.     

Neo-Atlantis: The Netherlands under a 5-m sea level rise

What could happen to the Netherlands if, in 2030, the sea level starts to rise and eventually, after 100 years, a sea level of 5 m above current level would be reached? This question is addressed by studying literature, by interviewing experts in widely differing fields, and by holding an expert workshop on this question. Although most experts believe that geomorphology and current engineering skills would enable the country to largely maintain its territorial integrity, there are reasons to assume that this is not likely to happen. Social processes that precede important political decisions – such as the growth of the belief in the reality of sea level rise and the framing of such decisions in a proper political context (policy window) – evolve slowly. A flood disaster would speed up the decision-making process. The shared opinion of the experts surveyed is that eventually part of the Netherlands would be abandoned.     

The importance of three centuries of land-use change for the global and regional terrestrial carbon cycle

Large amounts of carbon (C) have been released into the atmosphere over the past centuries. Less than half of this C stays in the atmosphere. The remainder is taken up by the oceans and terrestrial ecosystems. Where does the C come from and where and when does this uptake occur? We address these questions by providing new estimates of regional land-use emissions and natural carbon fluxes for the 1700–2000 period, simultaneously considering multiple anthropogenic (e.g. land and energy demand) and biochemical factors in a geographically explicit manner. The observed historical atmospheric CO₂ concentration profile for the 1700 to 2000 period has been reproduced well. The terrestrial natural biosphere has been a major carbon sink, due to changes in climate, atmospheric CO₂, nitrogen and management. Due to land-use change large amounts of carbon have been emitted into the atmosphere. The net effect was an emission of 35 Pg C into the atmosphere for the 1700 to 2000 period. If land use had remained constant at its distribution in 1700, then the terrestrial C uptake would have increased by 142 Pg C. This overall difference of including or excluding land-use changes (i.e. 177 Pg C) comes to more than half of the historical fossil-fuel related emissions of 308 Pg C. Historically, global land-use emissions were predominantly caused by the expansion of cropland and pasture, while wood harvesting (for timber and fuel wood) only played a minor role. These findings are robust even when changing some of the important drivers like the extent of historical land-use changes. Under varying assumptions, land-use emissions over the past three centuries could have increased up to 20%, but remained significantly lower than from other sources. Combining the regional land-use and natural C fluxes, North America and Europe were net C sources before 1900, but turned into sinks during the twentieth century. Nowadays, these fluxes are a magnitude smaller than energy- and industry-related emissions. Tropical regions were C neutral prior to 1950, but then accelerated deforestation turned these regions into major C sources. The energy- and industry-related emissions are currently increasing in many tropical regions, but are still less than the land-use emissions. Based on the presented relevance of the land-use and natural fluxes for the historical C cycle and the significance of fossil-fuel emissions nowadays, there is a need for an integrated approach for energy, nature and land use in evaluating possible climate change mitigation policies.     

Spatial and temporal variation in climate change: a bird’s eye view

Recent changes in global climate have dramatically altered worldwide temperatures and the corresponding timing of seasonal climate conditions. Recognizing the degree to which species respond to changing climates is therefore an area of increasing conservation concern as species that are unable to respond face increased risk of extinction. Here we examine spatial and temporal heterogeneity in the rate of climate change across western North America and discuss the potential for conditions to arise that may limit the ability of western migratory birds to adapt to changing climates. Based on 52 years of climate data, we show that changes in temperature and precipitation differ significantly between spring migration habitats in the desert southwest and breeding habitats throughout western North America. Such differences may ultimately increase costs to individual birds and thereby threaten the long-term population viability of many species.     

Annual variation of the southern boundary current in the Banda Sea

ADCP measurements in the southern Banda Sea, obtained with the bulk carrier “MS First Jupiter” from 1997 until 2000, have been analysed. The observations reveal the presence of an eastward flowing southern boundary current, bringing water from the Indonesian throughflow towards the connections with the Indian Ocean in Ombai Strait and the Timor Sea. The mean transport in the upper 300 m is estimated to be about 5 Sv, over 50% of the outflow towards the Indian Ocean in this layer through the eastern passages near Timor. The velocity in the boundary current shows a clear annual variation, more or less in phase with the annually varying inflow through Makassar Strait and the outflow near Timor. The phase of the annual variation cannot be explained by the monsoonal variation of the local winds. Therefore this annual variation of the throughflow is probably generated by large-scale forcing. A considerable reduction of the strength of the boundary current was observed in 1998, following the 1997–1998 El Niño with a delay of about half a year. On shorter time scales, Kelvin waves, entering the Banda Sea from the Indian Ocean, cause flow reversals of the boundary current.     

Diurnal and Seasonal Trends in Convective Mixed-Layer Heights Estimated from Two Years of Continuous Ceilometer Observations in Vancouver,BC

Twenty-six months of continuous ceilometer data are used to estimate the convective mixed-layer height for 710 days by identifying backscatter gradients associated with the entrainment zone. To accomplish this, a semi-automatic procedure is developed that removes all non-applicable data before applying a mixed-layer height algorithm to the backscatter profiles. Two different algorithms for estimating the mixed-layer height are assessed: the minimum-gradient method and the ideal-profile method. The latter of these two algorithms is found to be more robust. Comparisons of mixed-layer height values estimated from the ceilometer agree with previous observations with slightly higher estimates in the mornings and evenings. For clear days with no cumulus cloud formation, the seasonal cycle in mixed-layer heights peaks in late June to early July. Daily maximum values are suppressed by the site’s coastal location, remaining below 800 m for all but a few days. The mean daily maximum mixed-layer height increases by 384 m for days with boundary-layer clouds. The mean summer diurnal trend is found not to differ greatly from that in spring on clear days, while days with boundary-layer clouds have higher spring values than in summer. Net surface heat flux and synoptic stability likely have the largest influence on the mixed-layer heights. Additionally, large intra-monthly variability suggests a strong influence from regional dynamics.     

Identification, definition and quantification of goods and services provided by marine biodiversity: implications for the ecosystem approach

This paper identifies and defines ecosystem goods and services provided by marine biodiversity. Case studies have been used to provide an insight into the practical issues associated with the assessment of marine ecosystem goods and services at specific locations. The aim of this research was to validate the definitions of goods and services, and to identify knowledge gaps and likely difficulties of quantifying the goods and services. A validated theoretical framework for the assessment of goods and services is detailed, and examples of the goods and services at a variety of case study areas are documented. These results will enable future assessments of marine ecosystem goods and services. It is concluded that the utilisation of this goods and services approach has the capacity to play a fundamental role in the Ecosystem Approach, by enabling the pressures and demands of society, the economy and the environment to be integrated into environmental management.     

Dating bedrock gorge incision in the French Western Alps (Ecrins-Pelvoux massif) using cosmogenic 10Be

We report in-situ produced ¹⁰Be data from the Gorge du Diable (French Western Alps) to date and quantify bedrock gorge incision into a glacial hanging valley. We sampled gorge sidewalls and the active channel bed to derive both long-term and present-day incision rates. ¹⁰Be ages of sidewall profiles reveal rapid incision through the late Holocene (ca 5 ka) at rates ranging from 6.5 to 13 mm yr⁻¹. Present-day incision rates are significantly lower and vary from 0.5 to 3 mm yr⁻¹ within the gorge. Our data imply either delayed initiation of gorge incision after final ice retreat from internal Alpine valleys at ca 12 ka, or post-glacial surface reburial of the gorge. Our results suggest that fluvial incision rates >1 cm yr⁻¹ into crystalline bedrock may be encountered in transient landscape features induced by glacial-interglacial transitions.     

Titanium in subduction zone fluids: First insights from abinitio molecular metadynamics simulations

The preferential incorporation of High-Field-Strength Elements (HFSE) in rutile (TiO₂), combined with its supposed stability in subduction zone settings, make it an ideal candidate to explain the low HFSE concentrations in subduction-derived magmas. The solubility behaviour of rutile is key to these arguments, but at present experimental and field-based evidence are contradictory.We have used abinitio molecular (meta)dynamics to investigate the coordination environment of Ti(IV) in pure water at 300 and 1000 K and densities ranging from 900-1260 kg m⁻³ (approximate pressures 0.9-3.6 GPa). In all high temperature simulations, the long-range structure of the solvent indicates a breakdown of the hydrogen bonding network as expected for supercritical water. The five-fold coordination of titanium to water is energetically most favourable in aqueous fluids at room temperature and pressure, separated from four and six-fold configurations by ∼175 and ∼200 kJ mol⁻¹, respectively. The average first shell Ti-O distance is 2.00 Å, in excellent agreement with bond lengths obtained from experiments. At similar densities and 1000 K, titanium is on average six-fold coordinate with water, and shows some degree of water dissociation in the first hydration shell. This coordination environment is remarkably persistent with increasing density from 1021 to 1260 kg m⁻³ at constant temperature (1000 K). At lower densities, however, (900 kg m⁻³ at 1000 K), the coordination with first shell water molecules is less than five. The observed coordination changes could promote association of titanium with peralkaline or peraluminous domains in the aqueous fluid, and thereby explain field-and laboratory based evidence of enhanced HFSE concentrations.This study demonstrates that abinitio molecular dynamics has considerable potential to access details of element behaviour in aqueous fluids at geologically relevant conditions that are impossible to examine otherwise. Changes in the solvent structure due to density variations lead to differences in solvent behaviour allowing access to new domains for fluid-solid interaction. Moreover, changes in the solvent structure are strongly linked to the effectiveness of element solvation.