A nuanced quantile random forest approach for fast prediction of a stochastic marine flooding simulator applied to a macrotidal coastal site

Integrating full-process high resolution hydrodynamic simulations within early warning system (EWS) for marine flooding is hindered by the large computation time cost of such numerical models. This...     

Shelf spawning habitat of Emmelichthys nitidus in south-eastern Australia – Implications and suitability for egg-based biomass estimation

The spawning habitat of Emmelichthys nitidus (Emmelichthyidae) in south-eastern Australia is described from vertical ichthyoplankton samples collected along the shelf region off eastern through to south-western Tasmania during peak spawning in October 2005–06. Surveys covered eastern waters in 2005 (38.8–43.5°S), and both eastern and southern waters in 2006 (40.5°S around to 43.5°S off the south-west). Eggs (n = 10,393) and larvae (n = 378) occurred along eastern Tasmania in both years but were rare along southern waters south and westwards of 43.5°S in 2006. Peak egg abundances (1950–2640 per m⁻²) were obtained off north-eastern Tasmania (40.5–41.5°S) between the shelf break and 2.5 nm inshore from the break. Eggs were up to 5-days old, while nearly 95% of larvae were at the early preflexion stage, i.e. close to newly emerged. Average abundances of aged eggs pooled across each survey declined steadily from day-1 to day-5 eggs both in 2005 (97-18) and 2006 (175-34). Moreover, day-1 egg abundances were significantly greater 2.5 nm at either side of the break, including at the break, than in waters ≥5 nm both inshore and offshore from the break. These results, complemented with egg and larval data obtained in shelf waters off New South Wales (NSW; 35.0–37.7°S) in October 2002–03, indicate that the main spawning area of E. nitidus in south-eastern Australia lies between 35.5°S off southern NSW and 43.5°S off south-eastern Tasmania, and that spawning activity declines abruptly south and westwards of 43.5°S around to the south-west coast. In addition, quotient analyses of day-1 egg abundances point to a preferred spawning habitat contained predominantly within a 5 nm corridor along the shelf break, where waters are 125–325 m deep and median temperatures 13.5–14.0 °C. Spawning off eastern Tasmania is timed with the productivity outburst typical of the region during the austral spring, and the temperature increase from the mixing between the southwards advancing, warm East Australian Current and cooler subantarctic water over the shelf. Overall, ichthyoplankton data, coupled with reproductive information from adults trawled off Tasmania, indicate that E. nitidus constitutes a suitable species for the application of the daily egg production method (DEPM) to estimate spawning biomass. This finding, together with evidence in support of a discrete eastern spawning stock extending from southern NSW to southern Tasmania, strengthens the need for DEPM-based biomass estimates of E. nitidus prior to further fishery expansion.     

High-sediment tolerance in the reef coral Turbinaria mesenterina from the inner Great Barrier Reef lagoon (Australia)

Sedimentation is an important stressor on coral reefs subjected to run-off, dredging and resuspension events. Reefs with a history of high-sediment loads tend to be dominated by a few tolerant coral species. A key question is whether such species live close to their tolerance thresholds or near their niche optima. Here, we analyse experimentally the sediment tolerance of a spatially dominant coral, Turbinaria mesenterina (Dendrophylliidae), at nearshore reefs in the central Great Barrier Reef lagoon. Testing was conducted in a 5-week tank experiment under manipulated sediment loading and flow conditions. Physiological stress was assessed based on the behaviour of three key response variables: skeletal growth rate, energy reserves (lipid content) and photosynthetic performance. Because sediment effects are likely to vary between flow regimes, sediment and flow responses were tested using a full factorial design. Sediment loads greater than 110 mg cm⁻² had no effect on any of the physiological variables, regardless of flow (0.7–24 cm s⁻¹). Turbinaria mesenterina is thus tolerant to sediment loads an order of magnitude higher than most severe sediment conditions in situ. Likely mechanisms for such tolerance are that: (1) colonies covered in sediment (60–120 μm) in low-flow were able to clear themselves rapidly (within 4–5 h); and (2) sediment provides a source of food. These results suggest that intensified sediment regimes on coastal reefs may shift coral communities towards dominance by a few well-adapted species.     

Aquifer Characterization and Uncertainty in Multi-Frequency Oscillatory Flow Tests: Approach and Insights

Characterizing aquifer properties and their associated uncertainty remains a fundamental challenge in hydrogeology. Recent studies demonstrate the use of oscillatory flow interference testing to characterize effective aquifer flow properties. These characterization efforts relate the relative amplitude and phase of an observation signal with a single frequency component to aquifer diffusivity and transmissivity. Here, we present a generalized workflow that relates extracted Fourier coefficients for observation signals with single and multiple frequency components to aquifer flow properties and their associated uncertainty. Through synthetic analytical modeling we show that multi-frequency oscillatory flow interference testing adds information that improves inversion performance and decreases parameter uncertainty. We show increased observation signal length, sampling frequency, and pressure sensor accuracy all produce decreased parameter uncertainty. This work represents the first attempt we are aware of to quantify effective aquifer parameters and their associated uncertainty using multi-frequency oscillatory flow interference testing.     

Heterogeneous distribution of H2O in the Martian interior: Implications for the abundance of H2O in depleted and enriched mantle sources

We conducted a petrologic study of apatite within 12 Martian meteorites, including 11 shergottites and one basaltic regolith breccia. These data were combined with previously published data to gain a better understanding of the abundance and distribution of volatiles in the Martian interior. Apatites in individual Martian meteorites span a wide range of compositions, indicating they did not form by equilibrium crystallization. In fact, the intrasample variation in apatite is best described by either fractional crystallization or crustal contamination with a Cl‐rich crustal component. We determined that most Martian meteorites investigated here have been affected by crustal contamination and hence cannot be used to estimate volatile abundances of the Martian mantle. Using the subset of samples that did not exhibit crustal contamination, we determined that the enriched shergottite source has 36–73 ppm H₂O and the depleted source has 14–23 ppm H₂O. This result is consistent with other observed geochemical differences between enriched and depleted shergottites and supports the idea that there are at least two geochemically distinct reservoirs in the Martian mantle. We also estimated the H₂O, Cl, and F content of the Martian crust using known crust‐mantle distributions for incompatible lithophile elements. We determined that the bulk Martian crust has ~1410 ppm H₂O, 450 ppm Cl, and 106 ppm F, and Cl and H₂O are preferentially distributed toward the Martian surface. The estimate of crustal H₂O results in a global equivalent surface layer (GEL) of ~229 m, which can account for at least some of the surface features on Mars attributed to flowing water and may be sufficient to support the past presence of a shallow sea on Mars' surface.     

Trace metal enrichments in Lake Tanganyika sediments: Controls on trace metal burial in lacustrine systems

We investigate the distributions of several key diagenetic reactants (C, S, Fe) and redox-sensitive trace metals (Mo, Cd, Re, U) in sediments from Lake Tanganyika, East Africa. This study includes modern sediments from a chemocline transect, which spans oxygenated shallow waters to sulfidic conditions at depth, as well as ancient sediments from a longer core (∼2 m) taken at ∼900 m water depth. Modern sediments from depths spanning ∼70-335 m are generally characterized by increasing enrichments of C, S, Mo, Cd, and U with increasing water depth but static Fe distributions. It appears that the sedimentary enrichments of these elements are, to varying degrees, influenced by a combination of organic carbon cycling and sulfur cycling. These modern lake characteristics contrast with a period of high total organic carbon (C_org), total sulfur (S_Tot), and trace metal concentrations observed in the 900 m core, a period which follows the most recent deglaciation (∼18-11 ky). This interval is followed abruptly by an interval (∼11-6 ky) that is characterized by lower C, S, U, and Mo. Consistent with other work we suspect that the low concentrations of S, Mo, and U may indicate a period of intense lake mixing, during which time the lake may have been less productive and less reducing as compared to the present. An alternative, but not mutually exclusive, hypothesis is that changes in the lake’s chemical inventory, driven by significant hydrological changes, could be influencing the distribution of sedimentary trace elements through time.