Winter Flounder Larval Genetic Population Structure in Narragansett Bay,RI: Recruitment to Juvenile Young-of-the-Year

The genetic population structure of winter flounder larvae was examined in Narragansett Bay, RI. Winter flounder larvae collected from 20 stations within Narragansett Bay and one station outside of the Bay were analyzed for six microsatellite loci. When analyzed by geographic collection sites, there were 16 distinct genetic populations of winter flounder larvae (R _ST values from 0.1 to 0.6). The presence of distinct genetic populations was supported by assignment of individual larvae to populations by Bayesian analysis. Bayesian analysis resulted in 14 distinct genetic populations that overlapped with the geographically distributed populations (R _ST values from 0.1 to 0.6). Young-of-the-year juveniles collected in the same year as the larvae were also analyzed at the same six microsatellite loci. Juveniles were assigned to larvae populations by both a Bayesian approach and a neural network approach. Juveniles collected from within Narragansett Bay were found to arise from geographically adjacent Narragansett Bay winter flounder larval populations (>99%), suggesting no widespread movement of juveniles away from spawning grounds. These results are discussed in the context of winter flounder population biology in Narragansett Bay, RI.     

An Evaluation of Tropical Cyclone Genesis Forecast over the Western North Pacificand the South China Sea from the CMA-TRAMS

Tropical cyclone (TC) genesis forecasting is essential for daily operational practices during the typhoon season.The updated version of the Tropical Regional Atmosphere Model for the South China Sea (CMA-TRAMS) offersforecasters reliable numerical weather prediction (NWP) products with improved configurations and fine resolution. Whiletraditional evaluation of typhoon forecasts has focused on track and intensity, the increasing accuracy of TC genesisforecasts calls for more comprehensive evaluation methods to assess the reliability of these predictions. This study aims toevaluate the effectiveness of the CMA-TRAMS for cyclogenesis forecasts over the western North Pacific and South ChinaSea. Based on previous research and typhoon observation data over five years, a set of localized, objective criteria has beenproposed. The analysis results indicate that the CMA-TRAMS demonstrated superiority in cyclogenesis forecasts, pre dicting 6 out of 22 TCs with a forecast lead time of up to 144 h. Additionally, over 80% of the total could be predicted 72 hin advance. The model also showed an average TC genesis position error of 218.3 km, comparable to the track errors ofoperational models according to the annual evaluation. The study also briefly investigated the forecast of Noul (2011). Theforecast field of the CMA-TRAMS depicted thermal and dynamical conditions that could trigger typhoon genesis, con sistent with the analysis field. The 96-hour forecast field of the CMA-TRAMS displayed a relatively organized three dimensional structure of the typhoon. These results can enhance understanding of the mechanism behind typhoon genesis,fine-tune model configurations and dynamical frameworks, and provide reliable forecasts for forecasters.     

Polarimetry of the eclipsing polar RX J0929.1−2404

We report polarimetric, spectropolarimetric and photometric observations of the eclipsing ROSAT cataclysmic variable RX J0929.1−2404, which confirm that the system is a new polar (AM Herculis system). This brings the number of eclipsing polars to nine, with RX J0929.1−2404 being only the third such system above the period gap. Circular polarization variations from ∼−20 to 10 per cent are seen over the 3.39-h orbital period, with a minimum around the time of eclipse. The photopolarimetric data were modelled using arc-shaped cyclotron emission regions in a centred dipole geometry. Results imply that RX J0929.1−2404 is a 'two-pole' system, with one emission region partially visible at all orbital phases. Spectropolarimetry observations show some evidence for the presence of cyclotron humps in the continuum, with spacings consistent with a magnetic field strength of ∼20 MG. Photometry of the eclipses provides information on the size of the emission region, which is consistent with a hotspot on the surface of the white dwarf. The eclipse duration implies an inclination in the range 70°≲ i ≲78°.     

Almost analytic models of ultramagnetized neutron star envelopes

Recent ROSAT measurements show that the X-ray emission from isolated neutron stars is modulated at the stellar rotation period. To interpret these measurements, one needs precise calculations of the heat transfer through the thin insulating envelopes of neutron stars. We present nearly analytic models of the thermal structure of the envelopes of ultramagnetized neutron stars. Specifically, we examine the limit in which only the ground Landau level is filled. We use the models to estimate the amplitude of modulation expected from non-uniformities in the surface temperatures of strongly magnetized neutron stars. In addition, we estimate cooling rates for stars with fields B  ∼ 10¹⁵ − 10¹⁶ G, which are relevant to models that invoke 'magnetars' to account for soft γ-ray emission from some repeating sources.     

The factors influencing cation site-preferences in spinels a new mendelyevian approach

Pseudopotential orbital radii r _s , r _p are used to construct an index, r _σ=r _s +r _p , which characterizes the average potential experienced by atomic valence electrons. A plot of r _A ^σ verses r _B ^σ for 172 chalogenide spinels (AB₂X₄, X=O, S, Se, Te) leads to two well defined areas, which separate normal and inverse spinels, with only four errors (a predictive success rate of 98%). The gross sorting is achieved without recourse either to the number of d-electrons or an orbital radius r _d , from which it is inferred that it is the energies and extents of the cation s and p-orbitals which primarily determine coordination number in these systems. This approach to the problem of cation distribution in spinels is contrasted with the less generally applicable, traditional, crystal field ideas. The relevance of both r _σ and crystal field stabilization energies to the thermodynamics of spinel reactions is also discussed.     

Plant responses to global change: next generation biogeography

Global change has become a major ecological concern that has the potential to dramatically alter plant distributions and assemblages worldwide. The specific response of plants to global change will depend on their ability to move, evolve, or adjust through phenotypic plasticity. Advances in biogeographic research are on the verge of a giant leap forward if we can take advantage of emerging tools in genetics and genomics. In this review, we appraise how new, post-Sanger, high-throughput sequencing and associated technologies can be used by next generation biogeographers to assess plant responses to global change. First, we briefly review the recent advances in genome sequencing and available approaches of genomic analysis. Secondly, we discuss the three main plant responses to global change: migration, adaptation, and phenotypic plasticity. This review is intended to spark the interest of biogeographers who do not traditionally use genetics but could benefit from including genetic and genomic tools into their research. Our goal is to illustrate that their use can contribute to new perspective and add an additional level of resolution into future biogeographic research.     

Cosmogenic 10BE Age Constraints for The Wester Ross Readvance Moraine: Insights Into British Ice-Sheet Behaviour

This study presents the first absoluteage constraints from a palaeo‐ice‐sheet margin in western Scotland. Cosmogenic ¹⁰Be from four Lewisian gneiss boulders on the Gairloch Moraine in NW Scotland have yielded reliable exposure ages. Three of these dates, taken from a single moraine ridge, cluster around c. 15.5–18 ka BP, with a weighted mean of 16.3 ± 1.6 ka BP. These findings indicate that the last British Ice Sheet had retreated to the present‐day coastline in NW Scotland by this time. It is suggested that the Wester Ross Readvance represents an ice‐sheet oscillation during, or in the immediate aftermath of, Heinrich Event 1 (c. 17–18 ka BP).     

Constraining stress magnitudes using petroleum exploration data in the Cooper–Eromanga Basins, Australia

The magnitude of the in situ stresses in the Cooper–Eromanga Basins have been determined using an extensive petroleum exploration database from over 40 years of drilling. The magnitude of the vertical stress (S_v) was calculated based on density and velocity checkshot data in 24 wells. Upper and lower bound values of the vertical stress magnitude are approximated by S_v = (14.39 × Z)^1.12 and S_v = (11.67 × Z)^1.15 functions respectively (where Z is depth in km and S_v is in MPa). Leak-off test data from the two basins constrain the lower bound estimate for the minimum horizontal stress (S_hmin) magnitude to 15.5 MPa/km. Closure pressures from a large number of minifrac tests indicate considerable scatter in the minimum horizontal stress magnitude, with values approaching the magnitude of the vertical stress in some areas. The magnitude of the maximum horizontal stress (S_Hmax) was constrained by the frictional limits to stress beyond which faulting occurs and by the presence of drilling-induced tensile fractures in some wells. The maximum horizontal stress magnitude can only be loosely constrained regionally using frictional limits, due to the variability of both the minimum horizontal stress and vertical stress estimates. However, the maximum horizontal stress and thus the full stress tensor can be better constrained at individual well locations, as demonstrated in Bulyeroo-1 and Dullingari North-8, where the necessary data (i.e. image logs, minifrac tests and density logs) are available. The stress magnitudes determined indicate a predominantly strike-slip fault stress regime (S_Hmax > S_v > S_hmin) at a depth of between 1 and 3 km in the Cooper–Eromanga Basins. However, some areas of the basin are transitional between strike-slip and reverse fault stress regimes (S_Hmax > S_v ≈ S_hmin). Large differential stresses in the Cooper–Eromanga Basins indicate a high upper crustal strength for the region, consistent with other intraplate regions. We propose that the in situ stress field in the Cooper–Eromanga Basins is a direct result of the complex interaction of tectonic stresses from the convergent plate boundaries surrounding the Indo-Australian plate that are transmitted into the center of the plate through a high-strength upper crust.     

The Impact of Climate Change on Wildfire Severity: A Regional Forecast for Northern California

We estimated the impact of climatic change on wildland fire and suppression effectiveness in northern California by linking general circulation model output to local weather and fire records and projecting fire outcomes with an initial-attack suppression model. The warmer and windier conditions corresponding to a 2 × CO₂ climate scenario produced fires that burned more intensely and spread faster in most locations. Despite enhancement of fire suppression efforts, the number of escaped fires (those exceeding initial containment limits) increased 51% in the south San Francisco Bay area, 125% in the Sierra Nevada, and did not change on the north coast. Changes in area burned by contained fires were 41%, 41% and –8%, respectively. When interpolated to most of northern California's wildlands, these results translate to an average annual increase of 114 escapes (a doubling of the current frequency) and an additional 5,000 hectares (a 50% increase) burned by contained fires. On average, the fire return intervals in grass and brush vegetation types were cut in half. The estimates reported represent a minimum expected change, or best-case forecast. In addition to the increased suppression costs and economic damages, changes in fire severity of this magnitude would have widespread impacts on vegetation distribution, forest condition, and carbon storage, and greatly increase the risk to property, natural resources and human life.     

Distribution of protons and Cd between bacterial surfaces and dissolved humic substances determined through chemical equilibrium modeling

Bacteria and dissolved humic substances are capable of binding significant concentrations of metals in natural environments. Recent advances in understanding bacteria-metal and humic-metal complexation have provided a framework for directly comparing the binding capacities of these components. In this study, we use chemical equilibrium modeling to construct an internally consistent set of thermodynamic equilibrium constants for proton and Cd binding onto dissolved humic substances, using a variety of published data sets. Our modeling approach allows for the direct comparison of humic substance binding constants and site densities to those previously published for proton and Cd binding onto natural consortia of bacteria. We then combine these constants into a unified model that accounts for the competition between bacterial surfaces and humic and fulvic acids in order to determine the relative importance of each component on the total Cd budget. The combined model is used to examine the relative contributions of bacteria and dissolved humic substances to Cd complexation in natural settings. Calculations are performed for three representative systems: (1) one with a maximum realistic concentration of bacteria and a minimum realistic concentration of humic substance, (2) one with a maximum realistic concentration of humic substance and a minimum concentration of bacteria, and (3) one with an intermediate concentration of both components.Our modeling results indicate that dissolved humic substances have 2 orders of magnitude more available binding sites than bacterial surfaces (per gram). Humic substances also have a greater affinity than bacterial surfaces for binding Cd over circumneutral pH ranges. The combined model results demonstrate that, depending upon their relative concentrations, both Cd-humic and Cd-bacteria complexes are capable of dominating Cd-speciation in specific natural environments. This modeling approach is useful in that it can easily be extended to include other metals and binding ligands; however, thermodynamic data must be gathered on additional components to facilitate the modeling of more realistic systems.