Risk-Based Decision-Support Groundwater Modeling for the Lower San Antonio River Basin,Texas, USA

A numerical surface-water/groundwater model was developed for the lower San Antonio River Basin to evaluate the responses of low base flows and groundwater levels within the basin under conditions of reduced recharge and increased groundwater withdrawals. Batch data assimilation through history matching used a simulation of historical conditions (2006-2013); this process included history-matching to groundwater levels and base-flow estimates at several gages, and was completed in a high-dimensional (highly parameterized) framework. The model was developed in an uncertainty framework such that parameters, observations, and scenarios of interest are envisioned stochastically as distributions of potential values. Results indicate that groundwater contributions to surface water during periods of low flow may be reduced from 6% to 25% with a corresponding 25% reduction in recharge and a 25% increase in groundwater pumping over an 8-year planning period. Furthermore, results indicate groundwater-level reductions in some hydrostratigraphic units are more likely than in other hydrostratigraphic units over an 8-year period under drought conditions with the higher groundwater withdrawal scenario.     

An approach to characterisation of multi-scale pore geometry and correlation with moisture storage and transport coefficients in cement-stabilised soils

An experimental approach to the characterisation of the complex, multi-scale pore geometry in cement-stabilised soils is presented, in which the pore size distribution inclusively spans at least six orders of magnitude from ~3 nm up to >3 mm. These most likely result from the combined effects of granular inter-particle packing, clay/cement clothing and bridging effects, cement hydration and clay/cement pozzolanic reactions, and alteration of larger pore geometries as a result of solid mass mobilisation and transport following capillary wetting/drying regimes. Experimental data are presented and were obtained through a combination of X-ray computed tomography, mercury intrusion porosimetry and N₂ physisorption supported by ‘wet mode’ environmental scanning electron microscopy. Data strongly suggest that macropore/capillary pore size distribution, mean pore size, sorptivity and transport coefficients are a function of particle size distribution (when compaction energy is constant). Mesopore size distribution, which dominates hygric sorption/desorption behaviour, occurs within the clay/cement matrix and also appears to be strongly influenced by the particle size distribution of the granular phase. All other factors being equal, manipulation of granular particle size distribution can be used to engineer the hygric (vapour) and capillary (liquid) potentials and also the fluid transport coefficients of these materials.     

Localized deformation in intensely fissured clays studied by 2D digital image correlation

This paper represents a further step in a longstanding research on the influence of fissuring on the mechanical behavior of natural clays. The results of an experimental investigation into the influence of fissure orientation on the evolution of strain localization in the intensely fissured scaly clay from Santa Croce di Magliano (south of Italy) are reported. The experimental program involved plane strain compression tests where the effects of the combination of different factors, such as the specimen size and the orientation of fissuring, were investigated. A key aspect to this work is that the standard global stress–strain measurements were augmented by full-field displacement and strain measurements through 2D digital image correlation. Access to incremental strain fields provided information about slight details or anomalies as well as the complexity of deformation processes, which is of crucial importance for proper interpretation of test results at the global, macroscopic level.     

Paleofluid analysis from fracture-fill cements in the Asmari limestones of the Kuh-I-Mond field, SW Zagros, Iran

Kuh-I-Mond field in the Zagros foreland basin is a conventional heavy oil resource and is composed of fractured carbonates whose fractures were filled by calcite, dolomite, and anhydrite cements. Oil inclusions occurred within the fracture-fill cements indicate that fractures were open and played an active role during oil migration and charge. The highest measured values for secondary porosities belong to fractures in Asmari Formation, which is characterized by significant amounts of vug- and fracture-filling cements. Fractures facilitated fluid circulation and subsequently dissolution of allochems and high Mg carbonates. In contrast, fine-grained carbonate facies were less cemented, and thus, porosity enhancement by cement dissolution was insignificant. Temperature profiles of oil inclusions in the dolomite, calcite, and anhydrite minerals characterized by distinct variations in the homogenization temperatures (Th) that are divided into two ranges below 50°C in anhydrites and from 45°C to 125°C in dolomites and calcites. The lower Th ranges for anhydrite suggests that it may have formed at shallower burial depths during early to middle diagenesis. The oil inclusions display trend for increasing temperature downward which conform to Formation geothermal gradient. In other word, the decreasing trend of Th temperatures upward within Asmari Formation that can be observed in Th versus depth plot is consistent with the uplift events at Late Miocene time and later that caused removal of about 1,300 m of the crest of the Kuh-I-Mond anticline. Vitrinite reflectance data from source rock intervals in the field area do not support vertical migration of locally generated hydrocarbons into the Kuh-I-Mond accumulation, and long-distance lateral oil migration and charge from a source kitchen to the southwest is proposed. Vitrinite reflectance data from this dolomite and limestone reservoir suggest low maturation levels corresponding to paleotemperatures less than 50°C. The observed maturation level (<0.5% Ro) does not exceed values for simple burial maturation based on the estimated burial history. Also, homogenization temperatures from fluid inclusion populations in calcite and dolomites show expected good correlation with reflectance-derived temperatures. The Th data represent pore fluids became warmer and more saline during burial. As aqueous fluid inclusions in calcite veins were homogenized between 22°C and 90°C with a decrease in salinity from 22 to 18 eq.?wt.% NaCl. The Th values suggest a change in water composition and that dolomite and calcite cements might have precipitated from petroleum-derived fluids. The hydrocarbon fluid inclusions microthermometry data suggest that the reservoir was being filled by heavy black oils in reservoir during Cenozoic. Aqueous fluid inclusions hosted by calcite equant sparry/fossil cavity fills suggest low cementation temperatures (<45°C) and high salinities (19 eq.?wt.% NaCl), while those in dolostones are characterized by highly variable homogenization temperature (52°C to 125°C) and salinities (6.5 to 20 eq.?wt.% NaCl).     

Effects of multiple stressors on lakes in south-central Ontario: 15 years of change in lakewater chemistry and sedimentary diatom assemblages

Freshwater ecosystems are increasingly affected by human influences. Since the pre-industrial era, lakes of the Muskoka–Haliburton region of south-central Ontario have had increases in shoreline residential development and acid deposition. Previous research on 54 of these lakes, using sediment cores and diatom-based transfer functions, showed changes in lakewater pH and total phosphorus concentration between the preindustrial era and 1992. Since 1992, there has been further change, which we have documented for the same set of lakes, using similar methods. For example, dissolved organic carbon has increased and there have been significant increases in planktonic diatoms (e.g. Cyclotella stelligera) commonly associated with climate warming. More striking diatom changes have occurred in the past 15 years than between pre-industrial times and 1992. Significant changes observed in both chemical (e.g. pH, Ca, DOC) and biological data suggest that novel stressors, such as declines in lake calcium concentrations, acting in conjunction with climate and land-use change, have created ecosystems for which there are no historical analogs.     

Extent of the last ice sheet in northern Scotland tested with cosmogenic 10Be exposure ages

The extent of the last British–Irish Ice Sheet (BIIS) in northern Scotland is disputed. A restricted ice sheet model holds that at the global Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; ca. 23–19 ka) the BIIS terminated on land in northern Scotland, leaving Buchan, Caithness and the Orkney Islands ice‐free. An alternative model implies that these three areas were ice‐covered at the LGM, with the BIIS extending offshore onto the adjacent shelves. We test the two models using cosmogenic ¹⁰Be surface exposure dating of erratic boulders and glacially eroded bedrock from the three areas. Our results indicate that the last BIIS covered all of northern Scotland during the LGM, but that widespread deglaciation of Caithness and Orkney occurred prior to rapid warming at ca. 14.5 ka. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A precisely‐dated lake‐level rise marked by diatomite formation in northeastern Ireland

The intercorrelation of palaeoclimate events from various studies is often hindered by a lack of precise chronological control. Tephra isochrons can overcome this problem by providing direct site linkages. This paper outlines a study of Holocene peat and diatomite deposits that accumulated within the floodplain of Lough Neagh, Northern Ireland. The Icelandic Hekla 4 tephra has been identified at the base of diatomite deposits at a number of sites and provides firm dating evidence for a widespread flooding event in the area at ca. 2300 BC . The evidence is consistent with other studies in Ireland and elsewhere for increased wetness at this time. The results demonstrate that the terrestrial deposits around Lough Neagh contain an important record of Holocene lake‐level change. Dendrochronological evidence from the Lough Neagh area provides additional information about lake‐level fluctuations over the past two millennia. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.