Implications of recent sea level rise science for low-elevation areas in coastal cities of the conterminous U.S.A.

Recently published work estimates that global sea level rise (SLR) approaching or exceeding 1 m by 2100 is plausible, thus significantly updating projections by the Fourth Assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Furthermore, global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions over the 21st century will not only influence SLR in the next ??90 years, but will also commit Earth to several meters of additional SLR over subsequent centuries. In this context of worsening prospects for substantial SLR, we apply a new geospatial dataset to calculate low-elevation areas in coastal cities of the conterminous U.S.A. potentially impacted by SLR in this and following centuries. In total, 20 municipalities with populations greater than 300,000 and 160 municipalities with populations between 50,000 and 300,000 have land area with elevations at or below 6 m and connectivity to the sea, as based on the 1 arc-second National Elevation Dataset. On average, approximately 9% of the area in these coastal municipalities lies at or below 1 m. This figure rises to 36% when considering area at or below 6 m. Areal percentages of municipalities with elevations at or below 1?C6 m are greater than the national average along the Gulf and southern Atlantic coasts. In contrast to the national and international dimensions of and associated efforts to curb GHG emissions, our comparison of low-elevation areas in coastal cities of the conterminous U.S.A. clearly shows that SLR will potentially have very local, and disproportionate, impacts.     

Assimilating QuikSCAT Ocean Surface Winds with the Weather Research and Forecasting Model for Surface Wind-Field Simulation over the Chukchi/Beaufort Seas

To achieve a high-quality simulation of the surface wind field in the Chukchi/Beaufort Sea region, quick scatterometer (QuikSCAT) ocean surface winds were assimilated into the mesoscale Weather Research and Forecasting model by using its three-dimensional variational data assimilation system. The SeaWinds instrument on board the polar-orbiting QuikSCAT satellite is a specialized radar that measures ice-free ocean surface wind speed and direction at a horizontal resolution of 12.5 km. A total of eight assimilation case studies over two five-day periods, 1–5 October 2002 and 20–24 September 2004, were performed. The simulation results with and without the assimilation of QuikSCAT winds were then compared with QuikSCAT data available during the subsequent free-forecast period, coastal station observations, and North American Regional Reanalysis data. It was found that QuikSCAT winds are a potentially valuable resource for improving the simulation of ocean near-surface winds in the Chukchi/Beaufort Seas region. Specifically, the assimilation of QuikSCAT winds improved, (1) offshore surface winds as compared to unassimilated QuikSCAT winds, (2) sea-level pressure, planetary boundary-layer height, as well as surface heat fluxes, and (3) low-level wind fields and geopotential height. Verification against QuikSCAT data also demonstrated the temporal consistency and good quality of QuikSCAT observations.     

Interannual variation of Gulf Stream heat transport in a high-resolution model forced by reanalysis data

The variability present in a 1/6th degree Atlantic ocean simulation forced by analysed wind stress and heat flux over a 20-year period is investigated by means of heat transport diagnostics. A section is defined which follows the Gulf Stream and its seaward extension, and transport of heat across this section is analysed to reveal the physical mechanisms responsible for intergyre heat exchanges on a variety of time scales. Heat transport across another section that crosses the Gulf Stream is also diagnosed to reveal the temporal behaviour of the gyre circulation. The Ekman response to wind stress variations accounts for the annual cycle and much of the interannual variability in both measures. For the intergyre heat transports, cancellation by transient-mean flow terms leads to a very weak annual cycle. Transient eddies account for approximately half the total intergyre transport of 0.7 Petawatts. They also account for a significant fraction of the interannual variability, but separate experiments with repeated-annual-cycle forcing indicate that the transient eddy component of the heat transport variability is internally generated. Links between the intergyre transport, the wind-driven gyre circulation, the surface heat budget and the atmospheric North Atlantic Oscillation are discussed.     

Sources of spread in simulations of Arctic sea ice loss over the twenty-first century

We show that intermodel variations in the anthropogenically-forced evolution of September sea ice extent (SSIE) in the Arctic stem mainly from two factors: the baseline climatological sea ice thickness (SIT) distribution, and the local climate feedback parameter. The roles of these two factors evolve over the course of the twenty-first century. The SIT distribution is the most important factor in current trends and those of coming decades, accounting for roughly half the intermodel variations in SSIE trends. Then, its role progressively decreases, so that around the middle of the twenty-first century the local climate feedback parameter becomes the dominant factor. Through this analysis, we identify the investments in improved simulation of Arctic climate necessary to reduce uncertainties both in projections of sea ice loss over the coming decades and in the ultimate fate of the ice pack.     

Internal variability in a regional climate model over West Africa

Sensitivity studies with regional climate models are often performed on the basis of a few simulations for which the difference is analysed and the statistical significance is often taken for granted. In this study we present some simple measures of the confidence limits for these types of experiments by analysing the internal variability of a regional climate model run over West Africa. Two 1-year long simulations, differing only in their initial conditions, are compared. The difference between the two runs gives a measure of the internal variability of the model and an indication of which timescales are reliable for analysis. The results are analysed for a range of timescales and spatial scales, and quantitative measures of the confidence limits for regional model simulations are diagnosed for a selection of study areas for rainfall, low level temperature and wind. As the averaging period or spatial scale is increased, the signal due to internal variability gets smaller and confidence in the simulations increases. This occurs more rapidly for variations in precipitation, which appear essentially random, than for dynamical variables, which show some organisation on larger scales.     

A three-dimensional finite-element model of wind effects upon higher harmonics of the internal tide

A non-linear three-dimensional unstructured grid model of the M₂ tide in the shelf edge area off the west coast of Scotland is used to examine the spatial distribution of the M₂ internal tide and its higher harmonics in the region. In addition, the spatial variability of the tidally induced turbulent kinetic energy and associated mixing in the area are considered. Initial calculations involve only tidal forcing, although subsequent calculations are performed with up-welling and down-welling favourable winds to examine how these influence the tidal distribution (particularly the higher harmonics) and mixing in the region. Both short- and long-duration winds are used in these calculations. Tidal calculations show that there is significant small-scale spatial variability particularly in the higher harmonics of the internal tide in the region. In addition, turbulence energy and mixing exhibit appreciable spatial variability in regions of rapidly changing topography, with increased mixing occurring above seamounts. Wind effects significantly change the distribution of the M₂ internal tide and its higher harmonics, with appreciable differences found between up- and down-welling winds and long- and short-duration winds because of differences in mixing and the presence of wind-induced flows. The implications for model validation, particularly in terms of energy transfer to higher harmonics, and mixing are briefly discussed.     

Evolution of the late Pleistocene Mojanda–Fuya Fuya volcanic complex (Ecuador), by progressive adakitic involvement in mantle magma sources

The Mojanda–Fuya Fuya Volcanic Complex consists of two nearby volcanoes, Mojanda and Fuya Fuya. The older one, Mojanda volcano (0.6 to 0.2 Ma), was first constructed by andesites and high-silica andesites forming a large stratovolcano (Lower Mojanda). This edifice was capped by a basaltic andesite and andesitic cone (Upper Mojanda), which collapsed later to form a 3-km-wide summit caldera, after large phreatomagmatic eruptions. The Lower Fuya Fuya edifice was constructed by the extrusion of viscous Si-rich andesitic lavas and dacitic domes, and the emission of a thick sequence of pyroclastic-flow and fallout deposits which include two voluminous rhyolitic layers. An intermediate construction phase at Fuya Fuya is represented by a mainly effusive cone, andesitic in composition (San Bartolo edifice), the construction of which was interrupted by a major sector collapse in the Late Pleistocene. Finally, a complex of thick siliceous lavas and domes was emplaced within the avalanche amphitheatre, forming the Upper Fuya Fuya volcanic centre. This paper shows that the general evolution from an effusive to an explosive eruptive style is related to a progressive adakitic contribution to the magma source. Although all the rocks of the complex are included in the medium-K field of continental arcs, the Fuya Fuya suite (61–75 wt.% SiO₂) shows depletion in Y and HREE and high Sr/Y and La/Yb values, compared to the less silicic Mojanda suite (55–66.5 wt.% SiO₂). The Mojanda calc-alkaline suite was generated by partial melting of an adakite-metasomatised mantle source that left a residue with 2% garnet, followed by fractional crystallization of dominant plagioclase + pyroxene + olivine at shallow, intra-crustal depths. For Fuya Fuya, geochemical and mineralogical data suggest either (1) partial melting of a similar metasomatised mantle with more garnet in the residue (4%), followed by fractional crystallization involving plagioclase, amphibole and pyroxene, or (2) mixing of mafic mantle-derived magma from the Mojanda suite and slab melts, followed by the same fractional crystallization process.     

Temporal variation in properties of an uncropped,ploughed Miamian soil in relation to seasonal erodibility

Knowledge of seasonal variation in soil structural and related properties is important for the determination of critical periods during which soil is susceptible to accelerated erosion and other degradative processes. The purpose of this research was to evaluate the magnitude of seasonal variations in selected soil and deposited sediment properties in relation to soil erodibility for a Miamian silt-loam soil (Typic Hapludalf) in central Ohio. Erosion plots (USLE-type) were established on a 4·5% slope and maintained under bare, ploughed conditions from 1988 to 1991. Particle size distribution, bulk density(ρ_b), percentage water stable aggregates (WSA), soil organic carbon (SOC), and total soil nitrogen (TSN) of both soil and sediment samples were monitored between Autumn 1989 and Spring 1991. The soil and sediment particle size distributions followed no clear seasonal trends. Soil ρ_b increased following tillage (1·20 Mg m⁻³) and was highest (1·45 Mg m⁻³) during the autumn owing to soil slumping and consolidation upon drying. Low winter and spring values of ρ_b and %WSA (20–50% lower than in autumn) were attributed to excessive wetness and freeze–thaw effects. Both SOC and soil TSN contents progressively declined (from 2·18 to 1·79% and 1·97 to 1·75 g kg⁻¹, respectively) after ploughing owing to maintenance of plots under bare, fallow conditions. Spring highs and autumn lows of sediment SOC (3·12 vs. 2·44%) and TSN (2·70 vs. 1·96 g kg⁻¹) contents were a result of the combined effects of soil microbial activity and rainfall erosivity. Soil properties such as bulk density, SOC and WSA, which vary seasonally, can potentially serve as predictors of seasonal soil erodibility, which, in turn, could improve the predictive capacity of soil erosion prediction models. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Fossil carotenoids and paleolimnology of meromictic Mahoney Lake,British Columbia,Canada

Vertical distribution of fossil carotenoids in a sediment core from meromictic Mahoney Lake was studied. Besides okenone and demethylated okenone, lutein and zeaxanthin and-carotene isomers were identified. No carotenoids typical for purple nonsulfur or green sulfur bacteria were detected. The ratio of zeaxanthin to lutein (above 1:1 in all samples) indicates a dominance of cyanobacteria over green algae in the phytoplankton assemblages of the past. Okenone, which is found exclusively in Chromatiaceae, was the dominating carotenoid in all sediment zones.The oldest sediment layers containing okenone were deposited 11 000 years ago. Between 9000 and 7000 and since 3000 years b.p., Chromatiaceae reached a considerable biomass in the lake. Vertical changes in okenone concentration were not related to changes of paleotemperatures. In contrast, okenone concentrations decreased during periods of volcanic ash input. During most of the lake history, however, mean okenone concentrations were positively correlated with sedimentation rates. This indicates that vertical changes of okenone concentration in the sediment reflect past changes of purple sulfur bacterial biomass in the lake.According to these results, the past limnology of Mahoney Lake resembled that of the present with a sulfide-containing monimolimnion and a well-developed population of okenone-bearing purple sulfur bacteria.     

A Generic Closed-Loop Contaminant Treatment System Package for MODFLOW 6

We present a contaminant treatment system (CTS) package for MODFLOW 6 that facilitates the simulation of pump-and-treat systems for groundwater remediation. Using the “nonintrusive” MODFLOW 6 application programming interface (API) capability, the CTS package can balance flows between extraction and injection wells within the outer flow solution loop and applies blended concentration/mass treatment efficiency within the outer transport solution loop. The former can be important when the requested extraction rate cannot be satisfied by the current simulated groundwater system conditions, while the latter can be important for simulating incomplete/imperfect treatment schemes. Furthermore, the CTS package allows users to temporally vary all aspects of a simulated CTS system, including the configuration and location of injection and extraction wells, and the CTS efficiency. This flexibility combined with the API-based implementation provide a generic and general CTS package that can be applied across the wide range of MODFLOW 6 simulation options and that evolves in step with MODFLOW 6 code modifications and advancements without needing to update the CTS package itself.