Spatial analysis of future East Asian seasonal temperature using two regional climate model simulations

CORDEX-East Asia, a branch of the coordinated regional climate downscaling experiment (CORDEX) initiative, provides high-resolution climate simulations for the domain covering East Asia. This study analyzes temperature data from regional climate models (RCMs) participating in the CORDEX - East Asia region, accounting for the spatial dependence structure of the data. In particular, we assess similarities and dissimilarities of the outputs from two RCMs, HadGEM3-RA and RegCM4, over the region and over time. A Bayesian functional analysis of variance (ANOVA) approach is used to simultaneously model the temperature patterns from the two RCMs for the current and future climate. We exploit nonstationary spatial models to handle the spatial dependence structure of the temperature variable, which depends heavily on latitude and altitude. For a seasonal comparison, we examine changes in the winter temperature in addition to the summer temperature data. We find that the temperature increase projected by RegCM4 tends to be smaller than the projection of HadGEM3-RA for summers, and that the future warming projected by HadGEM3-RA tends to be weaker for winters. Also, the results show that there will be a warming of 1-3°C over the region in 45 years. More specifically, the warming pattern clearly depends on the latitude, with greater temperature increases in higher latitude areas, which implies that warming may be more severe in the northern part of the domain.     

Future changes in drought characteristics over South Korea using multi regional climate models with the standardized precipitation index

In this study, the projection of future drought conditions is estimated over South Korea based on the latest and most advanced sets of regional climate model simulations under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) scenarios, within the context of the national downscaling project of the Republic of Korea. The five Regional Climate Models (RCMs) are used to produce climate-change simulations around the Korean Peninsula and to estimate the uncertainty associated with these simulations. The horizontal resolution of each RCM is 12.5 km and model simulations are available for historical (1981-2010) and future (2021-2100) periods under forcing from the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. To assess the characteristics of drought on multiple time scales in the future, we use Standardized Precipitation Indices for 1-month (SPI- 1), 6-month (SPI-6) and 12-month (SPI-12). The number of drought months in the future is shown to be characterized by strong variability, with both increasing and decreasing trends among the scenarios. In particular, the number of drought months over South Korea is projected to increase (decrease) for the period 2041-2070 in the RCP8.5 (RCP4.5) scenario and increase (decrease) for the period 2071-2100 in the RCP4.5 (RCP8.5) scenario. In addition, the percentage area under any drought condition is overall projected to gradually decrease over South Korea during the entire future period, with the exception of SPI-1 in the RCP4.5 scenario. Particularly, the drought areas for SPI-1 in the RCP4.5 scenario show weakly positive long-term trend. Otherwise, future changes in drought areas for SPI-6 and SPI-12 have a marked downward trend under the two RCP scenarios.     

Projections of high resolution climate changes for South Korea using multiple-regional climate models based on four RCP scenarios. Part 2: precipitation

Precipitation changes over South Korea were projected using five regional climate models (RCMs) with a horizontal resolution of 12.5 km for the mid and late 21st century (2026-2050, 2076- 2100) under four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios against present precipitation (1981-2005). The simulation data of the Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model version 2 coupled with the Atmosphere-Ocean (HadGEM2-AO) was used as boundary data of RCMs. In general, the RCMs well simulated the spatial and seasonal variations of present precipitation compared with observation and HadGEM2-AO. Equal Weighted Averaging without Bias Correction (EWA_NBC) significantly reduced the model biases to some extent, but systematic biases in results still remained. However, the Weighted Averaging based on Taylor’s skill score (WEA_Tay) showed a good statistical correction in terms of the spatial and seasonal variations, the magnitude of precipitation amount, and the probability density. In the mid-21st century, the spatial and interannual variabilities of precipitation over South Korea are projected to increase regardless of the RCP scenarios and seasons. However, the changes in area-averaged seasonal precipitation are not significant due to mixed changing patterns depending on locations. Whereas, in the late 21st century, the precipitation is projected to increase proportionally to the changes of net radiative forcing. Under RCP8.5, WEA_Tay projects the precipitation to be increased by about +19.1, +20.5, +33.3% for annual, summer and winter precipitation at 1-5% significance levels, respectively. In addition, the probability of strong precipitation (≥ 15 mm d^-1) is also projected to increase significantly, particularly in WEA_Tay under RCP8.5.     

Statistical downscaling for daily precipitation in Korea using combined PRISM,RCM, and quantile mapping: Part 1, methodology and evaluation in historical simulation

In this study, we present the Parameter-elevation Relationships on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM)-based Dynamic downscaling Error correction (PRIDE) model, which is suitable for complex topographies, such as the Korean peninsula. The PRIDE model is constructed by combining the PRISM module, the Regional Climate Model (RCM) anomaly, and quantile mapping (QM) to produce high-resolution (1 km) grid data at a daily time scale. The results show that the systematic bias of the RCM was significantly reduced by simply substituting the climatological observational seasonal cycle at a daily timescale for each grid point obtained from the PRISM. QM was then applied to correct additional systematic bias by constructing the transfer functions under the cumulative density function framework between the model and observation using six types of transfer functions. K-fold cross-validation of the PRIDE model shows that the number of modeled precipitation days is approximately 90~121% of the number of observed precipitation days for the five daily precipitation classes, indicating that the PRIDE model reasonably estimates the observational frequency of daily precipitation under a quantile framework. The relative Mean Absolute Error (MAE) is also discussed in the framework of the intensity of daily precipitation.     

Optical properties of circumstellar silicate grains

The optical properties of circumstellar silicate dust grains around oxygen-rich giant stars are investigated with close attention to infrared observations of OH/IR stars. The optical constants are deduced from available astronomical and laboratory data. The deduced opacities at longer wavelengths (12 m) for OH/IR stars are higher than the one for M-type Miras possibly because of the change of optical constants depending on temperature of dust grains. Absorption and scattering efficiencies are evaluated for various grain size distributions and shapes. The results of detailed radiative transfer model calculations based on our dust parameters are compared with observational data. The Planck mean values incorporating substantial far-infrared absorption are also calculated.Yonsei University Observatory Contribution No. 91.Department of Astronomy and Space Science, Chungbuk National University Contribution No. 4.     

Wave reflection and transmission by curtainwall–pile breakwaters using circular piles

This paper presents a mathematical model which computes the hydrodynamic characteristics of a curtainwall–pile breakwater (CPB) using circular piles, by modifying the model developed for rectangular piles by Suh et al. [2006. Hydrodynamic characteristics of pile-supported vertical wall breakwaters. Journal of Waterway, Port, Coastal and Ocean Engineering 132(2), 83–96]. To examine the validity of the model, laboratory experiments have been conducted for CPB with various values of draft of curtain wall, spacing between piles, and wave height and period. Comparisons between measurement and prediction show that the mathematical model adequately reproduces most of the important features of the experimental results. The mathematical model based on linear wave theory tends to over-predict the reflection coefficient as the wave height increases. As the draft of the curtain wall increases and the porosity between piles decreases, the reflection and transmission coefficient increases and decreases, respectively, as expected. As the relative water depth increases, however, the effect of porosity disappears because the wave motion is minimal in the lower part of a water column for short waves.     

Extended mild-slope equation for random waves

A time-dependent extended mild-slope equation is derived from the elliptic equation of Chamberlain and Porter [J. Fluid Mech. 291 (1995) 393] using the Taylor series technique. Numerical tests are made on a horizontally one-dimensional case for regular waves over sloping beds and for both regular and irregular waves over a ripple patch. Numerical results prove that the proposed model gives accurate results for both regular and irregular waves over rapidly varying topography.     

Geochemistry and geochronology of the ~620 Ma gold-associated Batouri granitoids,Cameroon

The Batouri gold mining area in southeastern Cameroon is part of the Adamawa–Yadé Domain of the Central African Fold Belt (Pan-African). It is underlain by a variety of granitic rocks, including alkali-feldspar granite, syeno-monzogranite, granodiorite, and tonalite. Geochemical data suggest that these rocks formed by differentiation of I-type tonalitic magma under oxidizing conditions in a continental volcanic arc setting. U–Pb dating of zircons from gold-associated monzogranite-granodiorite at Kambélé gave concordant ages of 619 ± 2 and 624 ± 2 Ma, while Ar–Ar dating of alkali-feldspar granite yielded a non-plateau maximum age of 640–620 Ma. These ages imply that the Batouri granitoids were emplaced during the collision of the West African Craton and the Congo Craton.

The geochemical characteristics of the Batouri granitoids as well as their oxidized state (magnetite series) are typical of gold-associated felsic rocks in subduction settings elsewhere. The similarities in age, composition, and geochemical affinities of these granitoids with those reported from other localities in the Adamawa–Yadé Domain reinforce the earlier assumption that the granitic rocks of this domain represent parts of a regional-scale batholith, with commonly small-scale, high-grade auriferous quartz veins in structurally favourable sites. The spatial and temporal association of gold mineralization and the Batouri granitoids may suggest potential for regional-scale, high-tonnage, granite-related gold ore.     

A Photometric Study of EB-type eclipsing binary GO CYG

Two colour (B and V) photoelectric observations of EB-type eclipsing binary GO Cyg were carried out for 15 nights during October and December 1996. Three new times of minimum lights have been derived. With these and previously published times of minimum lights, a continuous period increase of dP/dt = 1.51 × 10^-7 d yr^-1 was estimated from the quadratic light element. B and V light curves have been analyzed by the method of the Wilson and Devinney Differential Correction. GO Cyg is confirmed to belong to the group of near contact systems based on light curve analysis and its absolute dimensions. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.