Statistical analysis of time-dependent earthquake occurrence and its impact on hazard in the low seismicity region Lower Rhine Embayment

The time-dependence of earthquake occurrence is mostly ignored in standard seismic hazard assessment even though earthquake clustering is well known. In this work, we attempt to quantify the impact of more realistic dynamics on the seismic hazard estimations. We include the time and space dependences between earthquakes into the hazard analysis via Monte Carlo simulations. Our target region is the Lower Rhine Embayment, a low seismicity area in Germany. Including aftershock sequences by using the epidemic type aftershock-sequence (ETAS) model, we find that on average the hypothesis of uncorrelated random earthquake activity underestimates the hazard by 5–10 per cent. Furthermore, we show that aftershock activity of past large earthquakes can locally increase the hazard even centuries later. We also analyse the impact of the so-called long-term behaviour, assuming a quasi-periodic occurrence of main events on a major fault in that region. We found that a significant impact on hazard is only expected for the special case of a very regular recurrence of the main shocks.     

The American Crocodile in Florida Bay

The American crocodile was declared endangered in the United States in 1975. At that time 75% of the remaining crocodile nests were in Everglades National Park, in Florida Bay. In 1980, the National Park Service established a crocodile sanctuary in northeastern Florida Bay to protect nesting and nursery habitat. In 1985, a monitoring program, focused on nesting, growth, and survival, was established to evaluate the effects of modified water deliveries on crocodiles in Florida Bay. The number and range of crocodile nests increased between 1970 and 1995, but nesting success decreased slightly. Nests on artificial substrates in the Greater Flamingo-Cape Sable area accounted for most of the increase in nests. Nests on artificial substrates were more prone to predation by raccoons. At least 1.5% of marked hatchlings survived for more than 12 mo, and growth rates were variable. Detailed information on growth and survival of crocodiles is still lacking. It is no longer a question of whether crocodiles with survive in Florida Bay, but how ecosystem restoration and management can be applied to improve conditions for crocodiles.     

Surveying the Townscape of Roman Ammaia in Portugal: An Integrated Geoarchaeological Investigation of the Forum Area

Geoarchaeological research, integrating traditional excavations, and ground truthing with intensive geophysical surveys, aerial photography, and GIS‐based data processing, has revealed the full intramural plan of the abandoned Roman city of Ammaia in central Portugal. Although this multidisciplinary effort also focussed on understanding the town/territory relationships and the system of resource exploitation, this paper presents the most important results from fieldwork in the central monumental area of the town, the Roman Forum. Here, excavations, geomorphological survey, and an array of geophysical methods illuminate the long history of the site, from the first settlement and monument‐building phases in early Imperial times, to the ongoing post‐abandonment processes. This paper discusses some of the benefits of compiling these complementary data sets and proposes the use of a wide array of approaches in order to achieve full understanding of the complex topography and evolution of a classical urban site. It further demonstrates the need for effective stratigraphical control and geomorphological analysis of crucial areas revealed by high‐quality geophysics.     

Overstepping the garnet isograd: a comparison of QuiG barometry and thermodynamic modeling

The consequences of overstepping the garnet isograd reaction have been investigated by comparing the composition of garnet formed at overstepped P–T conditions (the overstep or “OS” model) with the P–T conditions that would be inferred by assuming garnet nucleated in equilibrium with the matrix assemblage at the isograd (the equilibrium or “EQ” model). The garnet nucleus composition formed at overstepped conditions is calculated as the composition that produces the maximum decrease in Gibbs free energy from the equilibrated, garnet-absent, matrix assemblage for the bulk composition under study. Isopleths were then calculated for this garnet nucleus composition assuming equilibrium with the matrix assemblage (the EQ model). Comparison of the actual P–T conditions of nucleation (the OS model) with those inferred from the EQ model reveals considerable discrepancy between the two. In general, the inferred garnet nucleation P–T conditions (the EQ model) are at a lower temperature and higher or lower pressure (depending on the coexisting calcic phase(s)) than the actual (OS model) nucleation conditions. Moreover, the degree of discrepancy increases with the degree of overstepping. Independent estimates of the pressure of nucleation of garnet were made using the Raman shift of quartz inclusions in garnet (quartz-in-garnet or QuiG barometry). To test the validity of this method, an experimental synthesis of garnet containing quartz inclusions was made at 800 °C, 20 kbar, and the measured Raman shift reproduced the synthesis conditions to within 120 bars. Raman band shifts from three natural samples were then used to calculate an isochore along which garnet was presumed to have nucleated. Model calculations were made at several temperatures along this isochore (the OS model), and these P–T conditions were compared to those computed assuming equilibrium nucleation (the EQ model) to estimate the degree of overstepping displayed by these samples. A sample from the garnet isograd in eastern Vermont is consistent with overstepping of around 10 degrees and 0.6 kbar (affinities of around 2 kJ/mole garnet). A sample from the staurolite–kyanite zone in the same terrane requires overstepping of around 50 °C and 2–5 kbar (affinities of around 10–18 kJ/mole garnet). A similar amount of overstepping was inferred for a blueschist sample from Sifnos, Greece. These results indicate that overstepping of garnet nucleation reactions may be common and pronounced in regionally metamorphosed terranes, and that the P–T conditions and paths inferred from garnet zoning studies may be egregiously in error.     

The Evolution of the Interstellar Medium over Cosmic Time

C23 UV spectroscopy of the PG1159-type star NGC7094 C26 Variations of the radio synchrotron spectral index in the interstellar medium of M33 C38 Angular Momentum Evolution of Young Brown Dwarfs and Low Mass Stars C48 The radio halo of the nearby starburst galaxy NGC 253 C95 Signatures of early metal enrichment in Damped-Lyman Alpha systems C113 CO 4 → 3 and [CI] 1 → 0 in the centers of NGC4945 and Circinus C115 Ratio of atomic and molecular gas and gravitational stabilty in the disk of M51 C130 The Interstellar Mediumat Early Cosmic Times: Molecular Gas in Distant Quasar Host Galaxies C188 Probing the interstellar medium in distant galaxies with SPICA/ESI C191 The evolution of spectral energy distributions of galaxies over cosmic times C197 Observations of 60Fe in the Galaxy with INTEGRAL/SPI C204 Evolution of Interstellar Clouds in a hot Gas Environment C205 The effect of clouds in a galactic wind on the evolution of gas-rich dwarf galaxies C206 Energy and element deposit into the interstellar medium during the lives of massive stars C209 The distribution and kinematics of massive stars in the inner Galaxy mapped with SPI/INTEGRAL 26Al 1.8 MeV line observations C213 PDR modelling of the Galactic FIR line emission C239 Towards a complete picture of the molecular ISM in local Luminous Infrared Galaxies: first results from the JCMT/IRAM line survey C242 The Search for the Very High-redshift Tail of Submillimeter Galaxies     

Recurrent mesoproterozoic continental magmatism in South-Central Norway

We report U–Pb dates and Lu–Hf isotope data, obtained by LAM-ICPMS, for zircons from metamorphic rocks of the Setesdalen valley, situated in the Telemark block south of the classic Telemark region of southern Norway. The samples include infracrustal rocks from the metamorphic basement, metaigneous rocks and metasediments from the Byglandsfjorden supracrustal cover sequence, and metaigneous rocks which intruded the whole succession. The main crustal evolution took place from 1,550–1,020 Ma, beginning with the emplacement of juvenile tonalitic melts; the contribution of older crustal material increased with time. Around 1,320 Ma, further addition of juvenile material occurred, involving both mafic and felsic melts, metamorphism and deformation. Acid magmas with high FeO*/MgO were intruded at 1,215 Ma, coinciding with underplating elsewhere in South Norway. The period starting at 1,215 Ma is represented by supracrustal rocks, principally metarhyolites with minor mafic material and immature sediments of the Byglandsfjorden Group. The crust generation processes ended with the intrusion of diorites and granodiorites at 1,030 Ma, late in the Sveconorwegian orogeny. Regional processes of metamorphism and deformation (around 1,290 and 1,000 Ma) can be related to the assembly of Rodinia. Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Thermal histories of the core and mantle

Recognition that the cooling of the core is accomplished by conduction of heat into a thermal boundary layer (D″) at the base of the mantle, partly decouples calculations of the thermal histories of the core and mantle. Both are controlled by the temperature-dependent rheology of the mantle, but in different ways. Thermal parameters of the Earth are more tightly constrained than hitherto by demanding that they satisfy both core and mantle histories. We require evolution from an early state, in which the temperatures of the top of the core and the base of the mantle were both very close to the mantle solidus, to the present state in which a temperature increment, estimated to be ～ 800 K, has developed across D″. The thermal history is not very dependent upon the assumption of Newtonian or non-Newtonian mantle rheology. The thermal boundary layer at the base of the mantle (i.e., D″) developed within the first few hundred million years and the temperature increment across it is still increasing slowly. In our preferred model the present temperature at the top of the core is 3800 K and the mantle temperature, extrapolated to the core boundary without the thermal boundary layer, is 3000 K. The mantle solidus is 3860 K. These temperatures could be varied within quite wide limits without seriously affecting our conclusions. Core gravitational energy release is found to have been remarkably constant at ～ 3 × 10¹¹ W. nearly 20% of the core heat flux, for the past 3 × 10⁹ y, although the total terrestrial heat flux has decreased by a factor of 2 or 3 in that time. This gravitational energy can power the “chemical” dynamo in spite of a core heat flux that is less than that required by conduction down an adiabatic gradient in the outer core; part of the gravitational energy is used to redistribute the excess heat back into the core, leaving 1.8 × 10¹¹ W to drive the dynamo. At no time was the dynamo thermally driven and the present radioactive heating in the core is negligibly small. The dynamo can persist indefinitely into the future; available power 10¹⁰ y from now is estimated to be 0.3 × 10¹¹ W if linear mantle rheology is assumed or more if mantle rheology is non-linear. The assumption that the gravitational constant decreases with time imposes an implausible rate of decrease in dynamo energy. With conventional thermodynamics it also requires radiogenic heating of the mantle considerably in excess of the likely content of radioactive elements.