Incorporating Spatial Dependence in Predictive Vegetation Models: Residual Interpolation Methods*

Predictive vegetation modeling can be used statistically to relate the distribution of vegetation across a landscape as a function of important environmental variables. Often these models are developed without considering the spatial pattern that is inherent in biogeographical data, resulting from either biotic processes or missing or misspecified environmental variables. Including spatial dependence explicitly in a predictive model can be an efficient way to improve model accuracy with the available data. In this study, model residuals were interpolated and added to model predictions, and the resulting prediction accuracies were assessed. Adding kriged residuals improved model accuracy more often than adding simulated residuals, although some alliances showed no improvement or worse accuracy when residuals were added. In general, the prediction accuracies that were not increased by adding kriged residuals were either rare in the sample or had high nonspatial model accuracy. Regression interpolation methods can be an important addition to current tools used in predictive vegetation models as they allow observations that are predicted well by environmental variables to be left alone, while adjusting over‐ and underpredicted observations based on local factors.     

Importance of climate,forest fires and human population size in the Holocene boreal forest composition change in northern Europe

The relative importance of climate, forest fires and human population size on long‐term boreal forest composition were statistically investigated at regional and local scales in Fennoscandia. We employ pollen data from lakes, reflecting regional vegetation, and small forest hollows, reflecting local vegetation, from Russia, Finland and Sweden to reconstruct the long‐term forest composition. As potential drivers of the Holocene forest dynamics we consider climate, generated from a climate model and oxygen isotope data, past forest fires generated from sedimentary charcoal data and human population size derived from radiocarbon dated archaeological findings. We apply the statistical method of variation partitioning to assess the relative importance of these environmental variables on long‐term boreal forest composition. The results show that climate is the main driver of the changes in Holocene boreal forest composition at the regional scale. However, at the local scale the role of climate is relatively small. In general, the importance of forest fires is low both at regional and local scales. The fact that both climate and forest fires explain relatively small proportions of variation in long‐term boreal vegetation in small forest hollow records demonstrates the complexity of factors affecting stand‐scale forest dynamics. The relative importance of human population size was low in both the prehistorical and the historical time periods. However, this is the first time that this type of data has been used to statistically assess the importance of human population size on boreal vegetation and the spatial representativeness of the data may cause bias to the analysis.     

The relation of Holocene fluvial terraces to changes in climate and sediment supply,South Fork Payette River,Idaho

Well-preserved Holocene terraces along the South Fork Payette River in central Idaho provide a record of fluvial system behavior in a steep mountain watershed characterized by weathered and erodible Idaho Batholith granitic rocks. Terrace deposit ages were provided by ¹⁴C dating of charcoal fragments and optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating of sandy sediments. Along with pairing of many terrace tread heights, these data indicate episodic downcutting during the Holocene, with a mean incision rate of ～0.9 m/ka from ～7 ka to present. Prior to 7 ka, the river incised to within～3 m of current bankfull, but then aggraded by ～5 m over at least a ～10 km-long reach in an episode centered ～7–6 ka. Aggradation may relate to (1) increased hillslope sediment input from landslides and debris flows in steep tributary basins with abundant grussified granitic bedrock, (2) possible local landslide-damming of the channel, (3) decreased peak discharge, or (4) a combination of these factors. Middle Holocene channel aggradation ca. 7–6 ka corresponds with a period of prolonged and widespread aridity in the northern Rocky Mountains. Between ～5 and 1.3 ka, the river aggraded slightly and then remained stable, forming a prominent terrace tread at ～3 m above current bankfull. Modest aggradation to vertical stability of the South Fork Payette River at the 1.5 m terrace level ～1.0–0.7 ka corresponds with large fire-related debris flows in tributaries during Medieval droughts. Three intervals of incision (～5.5–5 ka, 1.3–1.0 ka and 0.5 ka) correspond with frequent but small fire-related sedimentation events and generally cooler, wetter conditions suggesting increased snowmelt runoff discharges. Other possible drivers of channel incision include an increase in stochastic or climate-modulated large storms and floods and a reduction in delivery of hillslope sediment to the channel. Aggradation is more confidently tied to climate through increases in hillslope sediment delivery and (or) decreased stream power, both likely related to warmer, drier conditions (including high-severity fires) that reduce snowmelt and decrease vegetation cover on steep slopes. Thus, the Holocene terraces of the South Fork Payette River do not reflect simple stepwise incision with periods of vertical stability and lateral migration, but record substantial episodes of aggradation as well. We infer that increases in hillslope erosion and mass movements combined with reduced discharges during prolonged droughts episodically reverse the post-glacial trend of downcutting, in particular during the middle Holocene. The present bedrock-dominated channel implies a strong tendency toward incision in the late Holocene.     

Segmentation and kinematics of the North America‐Caribbean plate boundary offshore Hispaniola

We explored the submarine portions of the Enriquillo–Plantain Garden Fault zone (EPGFZ) and the Septentrional–Oriente Fault zone (SOFZ) along the Northern Caribbean plate boundary using high‐resolution multibeam echo‐sounding and shallow seismic reflection. The bathymetric data shed light on poorly documented or previously unknown submarine fault zones running over 200 km between Haiti and Jamaica (EPGFZ) and 300 km between the Dominican Republic and Cuba (SOFZ). The primary plate‐boundary structures are a series of strike‐slip fault segments associated with pressure ridges, restraining bends, step overs and dogleg offsets indicating very active tectonics. Several distinct segments 50–100 km long cut across pre‐existing structures inherited from former tectonic regimes or bypass recent morphologies formed under the current strike‐slip regime. Along the most recent trace of the SOFZ, we measured a strike‐slip offset of 16.5 km, which indicates steady activity for the past ~1.8 Ma if its current GPS‐derived motion of 9.8 ± 2 mm a^?1 has remained stable during the entire Quaternary.     

Assessing the effects of catchment‐scale urban green infrastructure retrofits on hydrograph characteristics

Run‐off from impervious surfaces has pervasive and serious consequences for urban streams, but the detrimental effects of urban stormwater can be lessened by disconnecting impervious surfaces and redirecting run‐off to decentralized green infrastructure. This study used a before–after‐control‐impact design, in which streets served as subcatchments, to quantify hydrologic effectiveness of street‐scale investments in green infrastructure, such as street‐connected bioretention cells, rain gardens and rain barrels. On the two residential treatment streets, voluntary participation resulted in 32.2% and 13.5% of parcels having green infrastructure installed over a 2‐year period. Storm sewer discharge was measured before and after green infrastructure implementation, and peak discharge, total run‐off volume and hydrograph lags were analysed. On the street with smaller lots and lower participation, green infrastructure installation succeeded in reducing peak discharge by up to 33% and total storm run‐off by up to 40%. On the street with larger lots and higher participation, there was no significant reduction in peak or total stormflows, but on this street, contemporaneous street repairs may have offset improvements. On the street with smaller lots, lag times increased following the first phase of green infrastructure construction, in which streetside bioretention cells were built with underdrains. In the second phase, lag times did not change further, because bioretention cells were built without underdrains and water was removed from the system, rather than just delayed. We conclude that voluntary green infrastructure retrofits that include treatment of street run‐off can be effective for substantially reducing stormwater but that small differences in design and construction can be important for determining the level of the benefit. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A middle–late Ediacaran volcano‐sedimentary record from the eastern Arabian‐Nubian shield

The Ediacaran Jibalah Group comprises volcano‐sedimentary successions that filled small fault‐bound basins along the NW–SE‐trending Najd fault system in the eastern Arabian‐Nubian Shield. Like several other Jibalah basins, the Antaq basin contains exquisitely preserved sedimentary structures and felsic tuffs, and hence is an excellent candidate for calibrating late Ediacaran Earth history. Shallow‐marine strata from the upper Jibalah Group (Muraykhah Formation) contain a diversity of load structures and intimately related textured organic (microbial) surfaces, along with a fragment of a structure closely resembling an Ediacaran frond fossil and a possible specimen of Aspidella. Interspersed carbonate beds through the Muraykhah Formation record a positive δ¹³C shift from ?6 to 0‰. U‐Pb zircon geochronology indicates a maximum depositional age of ~570 Ma for the upper Jibalah Group, consistent with previous age estimates. Although this age overlaps with that of the upper Huqf Supergroup in nearby Oman, these sequences were deposited in contrasting tectonic settings on opposite sides of the final suture of the East African Orogen.     

Selection and quality assessment of Landsat data for the North American forest dynamics forest history maps of the US

Using the NASA Earth Exchange platform, the North American Forest Dynamics (NAFD) project mapped forest history wall-to-wall, annually for the contiguous US (1986–2010) using the Vegetation Change Tracker algorithm. As with any effort to identify real changes in remotely sensed time-series, data gaps, shifts in seasonality, misregistration, inconsistent radiometry and cloud contamination can be sources of error. We discuss the NAFD image selection and processing stream (NISPS) that was designed to minimize these sources of error. The NISPS image quality assessments highlighted issues with the Landsat archive and metadata including inadequate georegistration, unreliability of the pre-2009 L5 cloud cover assessments algorithm, missing growing-season imagery and paucity of clear views. Assessment maps of Landsat 5–7 image quantities and qualities are presented that offer novel perspectives on the growing-season archive considered for this study. Over 150,000+ Landsat images were considered for the NAFD project. Optimally, one high quality cloud-free image in each year or a total of 12,152 images would be used. However, to accommodate data gaps and cloud/shadow contamination 23,338 images were needed. In 220 specific path-row image years no acceptable images were found resulting in data gaps in the annual national map products.