Modeling the risk of spread and establishment for Asian longhorned beetle (Anoplophora glabripennis) in Massachusetts from 2008-2009

Land managers responsible for invasive species removal in the USA require tools to prevent the Asian longhorned beetle (Anoplophora glabripennis) (ALB) from decimating the maple-dominant hardwood forests of Massachusetts and New England. Species distribution models (SDMs) and spread models have been applied individually to predict the invasion distribution and rate of spread, but the combination of both models can increase the accuracy of predictions of species spread over time when habitat suitability is heterogeneous across landscapes. First, a SDM was fit to 2008 ALB presence-only locations. Then, a stratified spread model was generated to measure the probability of spread due to natural and human causes. Finally, the SDM and spread models were combined to evaluate the risk of ALB spread in Central Massachusetts in 2008–2009. The SDM predicted many urban locations in Central Massachusetts as having suitable environments for species establishment. The combined model shows the greatest risk of spread and establishment in suitable locations immediately surrounding the epicentre of the ALB outbreak in Northern Worcester with lower risk areas in suitable locations only accessible through long-range dispersal from access to human transportation networks. The risk map achieved an accuracy of 67% using 2009 ALB locations for model validation. This model framework can effectively provide risk managers with valuable information concerning the timing and spatial extent of spread/establishment risk of ALB and potential strategies needed for effective future risk management efforts.     

Gondwana breakup: no evidence for a Davie Fracture Zone offshore northern Mozambique,Tanzania and Kenya

Plate tectonic reconstructions assume a major inactive transform fault, the Davie Fracture Zone, in the West Somali Basin, along which Madagascar is thought to have migrated southwards following Gondwana breakup in the Mesozoic. Based on the interpretation of reflection seismic data, we show that the Walu Ridge offshore Kenya and the Kerimbas Basin offshore northern Mozambique are tectonically unrelated to the southward motion of Madagascar and correlate with Late Cretaceous volcanism and inversion in Kenya and the evolution of the East African Rift System respectively. Offshore Tanzania, geophysical data do not show basement structures indicating the presence of a major transform fault. These results challenge the commonly supported transform margin concept and imply a more southerly pre‐breakup position of Madagascar within Gondwana. Opening of the West Somali Basin by SW‐propagating oblique rifting and seafloor spreading is proposed.     

Where Are the Women? Accounting for Discrepancies in Female Doctorates in U.S. Geography

Although there have been noticeable improvements in recent years, geography continues to be a predominantly male discipline. The percentage of women receiving PhDs in geography has tracked lower than the U.S. average of female PhDs. Previous studies of women's contribution to geography have focused on personal accounts or on the study of some of the most prominent practitioners, with a few studies using basic data on PhDs awarded and Association of American Geographers membership to determine trends. This article provides a comprehensive overview of doctoral degrees in geography by gender, over time, and across all universities in the United States by examining an alternative database, that of doctoral dissertations. The analysis yields three separate types of results. First, historical and contemporary variations among U.S. universities are examined. Second, data indicate that male and female doctoral students differ in the sex of their advisor. Third, a simple regression model explains some of the discrepancies in the proportion of female doctoral students by department. In sum, this article provides a comprehensive empirical study of the factors that might contribute to the continued disparities in female doctoral students in geography.     

Environmental Monitoring and Peat Assessment Using Multivariate Analysis of Regional-Scale Geochemical Data

A compositional multivariate approach was used to analyse regional-scale soil geochemical data obtained as part of the Tellus Project generated by the Geological Survey of Northern Ireland. The multi-element total concentration data presented comprise X-ray fluorescence (XRF) analyses of 6862 rural soil samples collected at 20-cm depth on a non-aligned grid at one site per \(2\,\hbox {km}^{2}\). Censored data were imputed using published detection limits. Each soil sample site was assigned to the regional geology map, resulting in spatial data for one categorical variable and 35 continuous variables comprised of individual and amalgamated elements. This paper examines the extent to which soil geochemistry reflects the underlying geology or superficial deposits. Since the soil geochemistry is compositional, log-ratios were computed to adequately evaluate the data using multivariate statistical methods. Principal component analysis (PCA) and minimum/maximum autocorrelation factors (MAF) were used to carry out linear discriminant analysis (LDA) as a means to discover and validate processes related to the geologic assemblages coded as age bracket. Peat cover was introduced as an additional category to measure the ability to predict and monitor fragile ecosystems. Overall prediction accuracies for the age bracket categories were 68.4 % using PCA and 74.7 % using MAF. With inclusion of peat, the accuracy for LDA classification decreased to 65.0 and 69.9 %, respectively. The increase in misclassification due to the presence of peat may reflect degradation of peat-covered areas since the creation of superficial deposit classification.     

Conodont geothermometry in pyroclastic kimberlite: constraints on emplacement temperatures and cooling histories

Kimberlite pipes from Chidliak, Baffin Island, Nunavut, Canada host surface-derived Paleozoic carbonate xenoliths containing conodonts. Conodonts are phosphatic marine microfossils that experience progressive, cumulative and irreversible colour changes upon heating that are experimentally calibrated as a conodont colour alteration index (CAI). CAI values permit us to estimate the temperatures to which conodont-bearing rocks have been heated. Conodonts have been recovered from 118 samples from 89 carbonate xenoliths collected from 12 of the pipes and CAI values within individual carbonate xenoliths show four types of CAI distributions: (1) CAI values that are uniform throughout the xenolith; (2) lower CAIs in core of a xenolith than the rim; (3) CAIs that increase from one side of the xenolith to the other; and, (4) in one xenolith, higher CAIs in the xenolith core than at the rim. We have used thermal models for post-emplacement conductive cooling of kimberlite pipes and synchronous heating of conodont-bearing xenoliths to establish the temperature–time history of individual xenoliths within the kimberlite bodies. Model results suggest that the time-spans for xenoliths to reach the peak temperatures recorded by CAIs varies from hours for the smallest xenoliths to 2 or 3 years for the largest xenoliths. The thermal modelling shows the first three CAI patterns to be consistent with in situ conductive heating of the xenoliths coupled to the cooling host kimberlite. The fourth pattern remains an anomaly.

     

Flexural deformation controls on Late Quaternary sediment dispersal in the Garo-Rajmahal Gap,NW Bengal Basin

Subsurface deformation is a driver for river path selection when deformation rates become comparable to the autogenic mobility rate of rivers. Here we combine geomorphology, soil and sediment facies analyses, and geophysical data of the Late Quaternary sediments of the central Garo-Rajmahal Gap in Northwest Bengal to link subsurface deformation with surface processes. We show variable sedimentation characteristics, from slow rates (<0.8 mm/year) in the Tista megafan at the foot of the Himalaya to nondeposition at the exposed surface of the Barind Tract to the south, enabling the development of mature soils. Combined subsidence in the Tista fan and uplift of the Barind Tract are consistent with a N-S flexural response of the Indian plate to loading of the Himalaya Mountains given a low value of elastic thickness (15–25 km). Provenance analysis based on bulk strontium concentration suggests a dispersal of sediment consistent with this flexural deformation—in particular the abandonment of the Barind Tract by a Pleistocene Brahmaputra River and the current extents of the Tista megafan lobes. Overall, these results highlight the control by deeply rooted deformation patterns on the routing of sediment by large rivers in foreland settings.     

Uncertainty and asymmetric information: An overview

This paper provides an overview of the literature on fisheries economics related to uncertainty and asymmetric information. It is argued that uncertainty is relevant in connection with present and future stock sizes and prices, while asymmetric information is important for cost functions, catches, catch per unit of effort, and effort. The literature on uncertainty and asymmetric information can be seen as providing the basis of an argument for using taxes in fisheries management. It is, therefore, surprising that over 55 countries regulate their fisheries with individual quotas, while taxes are not used at all.     

Investigating the effect of ballasting by CaCO3 in Emiliania huxleyi, II: Decomposition of particulate organic matter

The quantitative relationship between organic carbon and mineral contents of particles sinking below 1800 m in the ocean indicates that organisms with mineral shells such as coccolithophores are of special importance for transporting carbon into the deep sea. Several hypotheses about the mechanism behind this relationship between minerals and organic matter have been raised, such as mineral protection of organic matter or enhanced sinking rates through ballast addition. We examined organic matter decomposition of calcifying and non-calcifying Emiliania huxleyi cultures in an experiment that allowed aggregation and settling in rotating tanks. Biogenic components such as particulate carbon, particulate nitrogen, particulate volume, pigments, transparent exopolymer particles (TEP), and particulate amino acids in suspended particles and aggregates were followed over a period of 30 d. The overall pattern of decrease in organic matter, the amount of recalcitrant organic matter left after 30 d, and the compositional changes within particulate organic matter indicated that cells without a shell are more subject to loss than calcified cells. It is suggested that biogenic calcite helps in the preservation of particulate organic matter (POM) by offering structural support for organic molecules. Over the course of the experiment, half the particulate organic carbon in both calcifying and non-calcifying cultures was partitioned into aggregates and remained so until the end of the experiment. The partial protection of particulate organic matter from solubilization by biominerals and by aggregation that was observed in our experiment may help explain the robustness of the relationship between organic and mineral matter fluxes in the deep ocean.