Long memory in temperature reconstructions

Ever since H. E. Hurst brought the concept of long memory time series to prominence in his study of river flows the origins of the so-called Hurst phenomena have remained elusive. Two sets of competing models have been proposed. The fractional Gaussian noises and their discrete time counter-part, the fractionally integrated processes, possess genuine long memory in the sense that the present state of a system has a temporal dependence on all past states. The alternative to these genuine long memory models are models which are non-stationary in the mean but for physical reasons are constrained to lie in a bounded range, hence on visual inspection appear to be stationary. In these models the long memory is merely an artifact of the method of analysis. There are now a growing number of millenial scale temperature reconstructions available. In this paper we present a new way of looking at long memory in these reconstructions and proxies, which gives support to them being described by the non-stationary models. The implications for climatic change are that the temperature time series are not mean reverting. There is no evidence to support the idea that the observed rise in global temperatures are a natural fluctuation which will reverse in the near future.     

Response of Nebraska Sand Hills Natural Vegetation to Drought, Fire, Grazing, and Plant Functional Type Shifts as Simulated by the Century Model

The Nebraska Sand Hills exist in a semi-arid climatic environment and the land surface is grassland growing on sandy soils. These soils have been periodically active throughout the Holocene, but are currently stabilized by the vegetation. However, a shift in climate could cause grassland death and eventual sand dune remobilization. Our studies used the CENTURY nutrient cycling and ecosystem model to investigate the impacts of drought, plant functional type, fire, grazing, and erosion on Nebraska Sand Hills vegetation and dune stability. Fire and grazing alone had little impact on the vegetation, but when combined with mild drought, biomass decreased. Overall biomass increased if one plant functional type was allowed to dominate the ecosystem. Addition of as little as 1 mm of erosion per year under current climate conditions decreases vegetation as much as a drought 20 percent drier than the worst of the 1930s drought years in Nebraska.     

Adaptive Governance and Climate Change in the Tropical Highlands of Western South America

Climate changes occurring during the past several decades in the high elevations of the tropical Andes Mountains have implications for the native plant and animal species, for the ecological integrity of the affected land cover, and for the human-biophysical systems involved. Consequences are also probable for rural inhabitants and their livelihoods, especially for farmers and pastoralists. Biophysical factors have always changed in these mountainous zones; the extent and degree of alteration acting on native and agricultural biodiversity is the concern. Addressing these climate changes is probably within the adaptive capacity of many local land-use systems, unless external socioeconomic or political forces are unsupportive or antagonistic. Suitable programs to provide information, subsidies, or alternatives could be designed. We highlight some of the inherent resiliencies of natural and cultural systems in the Andes and suggest that these systems contain lessons that could be useful elsewhere, in terms of the traits that allow for the sustainable utilization of dynamic and heterogeneous landscapes.     

High-Latitude Springtime Photochemistry. Part I: NOx, PAN and Ozone Relationships

Springtime measurements of NO_x, ozone, PAN,J(NO₂), and other compounds were made near Ny-Ålesund,Svalbard (78°54N, 11°53E), in 1994 and Poker Flat,Alaska (65°08N, 147°29W), in 1995. At Svalbard medianmixing ratios for PAN and NO_x of 237 and 23.7 pptv,respectively, were observed. The median mixing ratios at Poker Flat for PANand NO_x were 79.5 and 85.9 pptv, respectively. These data areused to estimate thermal PAN decomposition using several differentapproaches. At Svalbard PAN decomposition was very small, while at PokerFlat up to 30 pptv/h PAN decomposed. At both sites the NO_x/PANratio increased with temperature between –10 and 20°C implyingthat PAN decomposition is an important NO_x source. In-situozone production was calculated from the measured NO, NO₂,O₃, J(NO₂), and temperature data, using thesteady state assumption Median ozone production was 605 pptv/h at PokerFlat, and one order of magnitude smaller at Svalbard during the daytime.Only at Poker Flat could a direct influence on the diurnal ozone cycle beobserved from in-situ production. These results imply that PAN decompositionis a major source of NO_x in the high latitude troposphere, andthat this contributes to the observed spring maximum in surface ozone.