Variability in concentration of suspensates in an estuarine environment

Three data sets of suspensate concentrations, collected under different sampling plans, were analyzed to develop a minimal sampling period, consistent with a predetermined precision. Individual samples collected during any part of a given day were within ±50% of the daily average. In the main channel of the estuary, a monthly sampling scheme closely approximated a weekly pattern; however, seasonal sampling was unsatisfactory. Outside the main channel, weekly, monthly, and seasonal sampling patterns did not differ greatly. Variability in suspensate concentrations must be considered when calculating sediment flux in estuarine and coastal waters.     

Adaptive balance of global development processes

We study the processes of global self-regulation of Earth’s biota (GAIA-theory) by applying the method of adaptive balance of causes proposed by the authors. By using, as an example, the Daisy World model constructed by this method, we reveal the phenomenon of preservation of the mean temperature of Earth’s surface due to the presence of the vegetation cover. We develop an integral model of global natural, social, and economic processes in which the World Ocean is one of the factors regulating the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. The decrease in the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere caused by the GAIA-effects increases the number of hurricanes and floods on the Earth. As a result, the levels of ecological and social hazards for the mankind become much higher. To eliminate these threats, it is necessary to intensify the processes of self-organization of the society realized via the improvement of education, development of science, and global regulation of the competition for natural resources. We present the results of numerical experiments performed by using the model demonstrating possible scenarios of global development with regard for the processes of self-organization of the society. __________ Translated From Morskoi Gidrofizicheskii Zhurnal, No. 3, Pp. 62–80, May–June, 2007.     

Assessment of the effectiveness of POLYMODE data assimilation by a numerical barotropic model for synoptic motions

This paper considers the results of numerical experiments involving POLYMODE data assimilation by a barotropic model for synoptic ocean dynamics. The model's response the data assimilation for various space-time discretenesses of assimilation is studied. Results derived from the application of optimal interpolation algorithms and modified optimal filtration algorithms are compared. Qualitative similarity to the calculations carried out through the simulation modelling technique is noted. Optimal assimilation algorithms are determined, depending on the space-time discreteness used. An optimal sampling discreteness for the POLYMODE conditions is suggested.Translated by Vladimir A. Puchkin.     

On the possibility of forecasting the long-term air temperature variability that determines the hydrophysical structure and ecology of the Black Sea waters

Periods and amplitudes of long-term temperature fluctuations were obtained using the methods of spectral analysis and filtration of secular time series of the air temperature at 13 hydrometeorological stations in the Black Sea region. The prognostic calculations of the long-term air temperature variability are based on the results of processing of time series. The calculations of the air temperature agree with the data of observations. The possibility of the long-term air temperature variability prediction is shown.     

Pressure prediction in the Bullwinkle Basin through petrophysics and flow modeling (Green Canyon 65, Gulf of Mexico)

Reservoir pressures within the Bullwinkle minibasin (Green Canyon 65, Gulf of Mexico continental slope) increase at a hydrostatic gradient whereas pressures predicted from porosity within mudstones bounding these reservoirs increase at a lithostatic gradient: they are equal at a depth 1/3 of the way down from the crest of the structure. Two- and three-dimensional steady-state flow models demonstrate that bowl-shaped structures will have lower pressures than equivalent two-dimensional structures and that if a low permeability salt layer underlies the basin, the pressure is reduced. We conclude that at Bullwinkle, pressure is reduced due to an underlying salt body and the bowl-shape of the basin. A geometric approach to predict sandstone pressure is to assume that the reservoir pressure equals the area-weighted average of the mudstone pressure. When the mudstone pressure gradient is constant, as at Bullwinkle, the reservoir pressure equals the mudstone pressure at the average depth (centroid) of the reservoir.     

Diet shifts of Caribbean grunts (Haemulidae) and snappers (Lutjanidae) and the relation with nursery-to-coral reef migrations

The spatial size distribution of grunts and snappers have previously indicated the separation of juveniles in nursery habitats from the adults on the coral reef. This implies life cycle migrations from nursery habitats (such as seagrass beds and mangroves) to the coral reef. If diet shifts are related to such migrations, then the diets of these fish must change before or around the fish size at which such migrations take place. A wide size range of juveniles of two grunt species (Haemulon sciurus and Haemulon flavolineatum) and of two snapper species (Lutjanus apodus and Ocyurus chrysurus) were caught in seagrass beds and mangroves, and their gut contents identified and quantified. Regression analysis between fish size and dietary importance of small crustaceans showed a negative relationship in all four species. Positive relations were found for H. sciurus, L. apodus and O. chrysurus between fish length and the dietary importance of decapods, and for L. apodusand O. chrysurus between fish length and prey fish importance. Critical changes in the fish diets with fish size were examined by application of a Canonical Correspondence Analysis (CCA). The CCA yielded three clusters of size-classes of fishes with similar diets, and application of a Mantel test showed that each of these clusters had significantly different diets, and that each cluster diet was significantly specialised. The size at which a fish species ‘switched’ from one cluster to another was compared with size-at-maturity data and with the typical size at which these species migrate from the nursery habitats to the coral reef. H. sciurus and H. flavolineatum may be prompted to migrate from the nursery habitats to coral reef habitats because of dietary changes, or because of the development of the gonads. For L. apodus and O. chrysurus, a dietary changeover forms a more likely explanation for nursery-to-reef migrations than does sexual maturation because these species reach maturity at sizes much larger than the maximum size of individuals found in nursery habitats. Although other factors may theoretically initiate or promote the migration patterns, the results of this study indicate that ontogenetic dietary changes may crucially influence the nursery-to-coral reef migrations of these reef fish species.     

Seasonal variation in lysosomal destabilization in oysters,Crassostrea virginica

Lysosomal destabilization assays have been used as valuable biomarkers of pollutant exposures in a variety of bivalve and fish species. The responses of oysters, Crassostrea virginica, deployed at and native to various reference and degraded sites were evaluated for lysosomal destabilization during both summer and winter seasons. In both native and deployed oysters, lysosomal destabilization rates tended to be higher during the winter at both reference and polluted sites. There are at least two hypothetical explanations. Greater lysosomal destabilization rates may be related to physiological changes associated with mobilization of nutrient reserves during the winter and gametogenesis. However, lysosomal destabilization in deployed oysters was correlated with tissue metal concentrations. These data also support a second hypothesis that seasonal differences in physico-chemical factors (such as reduced levels of acid volatile sulfides) may increase the bioavailability of metals during the winter so that adverse effects are more pronounced.