Meteorological Office, Pune-411 005

Natural disasters like floods, tornadoes, tropicalcyclones, heat and cold wavewreak havoc and cause tremendous loss ofproperty all over the world. Most ofthe natural disasters are either dueto weather or are triggered due toweather related processes.Extreme weather events claimed thousands oflives and caused damage on vastscale. Recent super cyclone which affectedOrissa in 1999, Bangladesh cyclone of1970 and Hurricane Andrew in 1992 areexamples of some of the more damagingtropical cyclones which affected developingas well as the developed world. Heatand cold waves are also extreme events,which cause enormous losses in terms oflives lost and human discomfort and ailmentsarising out of them. The heat waveof 1995 and 1998 are still fresh in the mindof the Indian public. The estimated lossof human lives due to heat wave in 1998 was morethan 15,000. Economic losses asa result of these disasters and in particular inassociation with tropical cyclones haveincreased enormously over the last three decades.During 1961–1991, total loss oflives from drought alone was 1,333,728 overthe whole world. In terms of economiclosses, there is 8–10 fold increase from thebase figure of 1960. The socio-economicimpact of natural disaster is complex dependingupon the vulnerability of the placeand mitigation strategies that are put in place.Meteorology plays a crucial role in forewarningpeople about the severe/extremeweather systems and a constant endeavour by themeteorological services worldover has gone a long way towards minimizing thelosses caused by natural disasters.The paper summarises the natural disasterstatistics over south Asia and the possibleprediction strategies for combating theirsocio-economic impacts.     

Seismic activity at the MCT in Sikkim Himalaya

A microearthquake survey in the Sikkim Himalaya raised a question whether the north–south segment of the Main Central Thrust (MCT) in this part of the Himalaya is seismically active(?). Fault-plane solution of a cluster of events occurred below this segment of the MCT shows right-lateral strike-slip motion. The seismic observations and the geological evidences suggest that a NNE–SSW trending strike-slip fault, beneath this segment, caused right lateral movement on the MCT, and is seismically active.     

Archaeoseismic record at the ancient Roman City of Baelo Claudia (Cádiz, south Spain)

This study represents the first paleoseismic approach in Spain in which archaeological remains are considered. The ancient Roman city of Baelo Claudia (1st–4th centuries AD), located at the axial zone of the Gibraltar Strait (Cadiz, south Spain), contains abundant disrupted architectural relics and ground collapses (i.e. landsliding, liquefacion) probably related to historic earthquake damage of intensity IX–X MSK. The archaeological stratigraphy of the city evidence two major episodes of abrupt city destruction bracketed in AD 40–60 and AD 350–395 separated by an intervening horizon of demolition for city rebuilding, otherwise characteristic for many earthquake-damaged archaeological sites in the Mediterranean. The second episode led the eventual city abandonment, and it is evidenced by good examples of column collapse, distortion, failure and breakdown of house and city walls, and pavement warping and disruptions documented during different archaeological excavations, which can be catalogued as secondary coseismic effects. Main damaged relicts observable today are the set of pop-up like arrays and warping developed in the ancient Roman pavement. Their analysis indicate an anomalous westwards ground displacement oblique to the main gentle southward slope of the topography, as also evidence failures, collapses and breakdown of walls and columns, suggesting that stress acted in a broad SW–NE/WSW–ENE orientation consistent whit the expectable motion along the largest NE–SW strike-slip faults of the zone, which in turn can be catalogued as seismic sources of moderate events (ca. 5 mb). Major disruptions and city abandonment were hesitantly related to relatively far strong earthquakes occurred during the late 4th century AD in the Mediterranean or western coast of Iberia by Menanteau et al. [Menanteau, L., Vanney, J.R., Zazo, C., 1983. Belo II : Belo et son environment (Detroit de Gibraltar), Etude physique d'un site antique. Pub. Casa de Velazquez, Serie Archeologie 4., Ed. Broccard, París.]. However, this study indicates that the occurrence of close moderate earthquakes jointly with the unstable character of the ground at the zone (site effect) is a more reliable hypothesis to explain the observed deformations.     

Stochastic Modelling of the Impact of Flood Protection Measures Along the River Waal in the Netherlands

River flooding is a problem of international interest. In the past few years many countries suffered from severe floods. A large part of the Netherlands is below sea level and river levels. The Dutch flood defences along the river Rhine are designed for water levels with a probability of exceedance of 1/1250 per year. These water levels are computed with a hydrodynamic model using a deterministic bed level and a deterministic design discharge. Traditionally, the safety against flooding in the Netherlands is obtained by building and reinforcing dikes. Recently, a new policy was proposed to cope with increasing design discharges in the Rhine and Meuse rivers. This policy is known as the Room for the River (RfR) policy, in which a reduction of flood levels is achieved by measures creating space for the river, such as dike replacement, side channels and floodplain lowering. As compared with dike reinforcement, these measures may have a stronger impact on flow and sediment transport fields, probably leading to stronger morphological effects. As a result of the latter the flood conveyance capacity may decrease over time. An a priori judgement of safety against flooding on the basis of an increased conveyance capacity of the river can be quite misleading. Therefore, the determination of design water levels using a fixed-bed hydrodynamic model may not be justified and the use of a mobile-bed approach may be more appropriate. This problem is addressed in this paper, using a case study of the river Waal (one of the Rhine branches in the Netherlands). The morphological response of the river Waal to a flood protection measure (floodplain lowering in combination with summer levee removal) is analysed. The effect of this measure is subject to various sources of uncertainty. Monte Carlo simulations are applied to calculate the impact of uncertainties in the river discharge on the bed levels. The impact of the “uncertain” morphological response on design flood level predictions is analysed for three phenomena, viz. the impact of the spatial morphological variation over years, the impact of the seasonal morphological variation and the impact of the morphological variability around bifurcation points. The impact of seasonal morphological variations turns out to be negligible, but the other two phenomena appear to have each an appreciable impact (order of magnitude 0.05–0.1 m) on the computed design water levels. We have to note however, that other sources of uncertainty (e.g. uncertainty in hydraulic roughness predictor), which may be of influence, are not taken into consideration. In fact, the present investigation is limited to the sensitivity of the design water levels to uncertainties in the predicted bed level.     

Mercury in Eastern Kentucky coals: Geologic aspects and possible reduction strategies

Mercury emissions from US coal-fired power plants will be regulated by the US Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) before the end of the decade. Because of this, the control of Hg in coal is important. Control is fundamentally based on the knowledge of the amounts of Hg in mined, beneficiated, and as-fired coal. Eastern Kentucky coals, on a reserve district level, have Hg contents similar to the USA average for coal at mines. Individual coals show greater variation at the bench scale, with Hg enrichment common in the top bench, often associated with enhanced levels of pyritic sulfur. Some of the variation between parts of eastern Kentucky is also based on the position relative to major faults. The Pine Mountain thrust fault appears to be responsible for elemental enrichment, including Hg, in coals on the footwall side of the thrust.Eastern Kentucky coals shipped to power plants in 1999, the year the USEPA requested coal quality information on coal deliveries, indicate that coals shipped from the region have 0.09 ppm Hg, compared to 0.10 ppm for all delivered coals in the USA. On an equal energy basis, and given equal concentrations of Hg, the high volatile bituminous coals from eastern Kentucky would emit less Hg than lower rank coals from other USA regions.     

Test of a distributed modelling approach to predict flood flows in the karst Suoimuoi catchment in Vietnam

The major obstacles for modelling flood processes in karst areas are a lack of understanding and model representations of the distinctive features and processes associated with runoff generation and often a paucity of field data. In this study, a distributed flood-modelling approach, WetSpa, is modified and applied to simulate the hydrological features and processes in the karst Suoimuoi catchment in northwest Vietnam. With input of topography, land use and soil types in a GIS format, the model is calibrated based on 15 months of hourly meteorological and hydrological data, and is used to simulate both fast surface and conduit flows, and groundwater discharges from karst and non-karst aquifers. Considerable variability in the simulation accuracy is found among storm events and within the catchment. The simulation results show that the model is able to represent reasonably well the stormflows generated by rainfall events in the study catchment.     

GPS monitoring of vertical ground motion in northern Ardenne–Eifel: five campaigns (1999–2003) of the HARD project

We present the HARD project of GPS monitoring of vertical ground motion in NE Ardenne and Eifel (western Europe). Its main purposes are to get a better insight into the present-day rates of vertical ground motion in intraplate settings and to identify the various causes of these motions. Since 1999, we have carried out yearly campaigns of simultaneous GPS measurements at 12 sites situated so as to sample the different tectonic subunits of the study area and especially to record potential displacements across the seismogenic Hockai fault zone. Five campaigns (1999–2003) have been processed currently. Key issues of the data processing with the Gamit software are discussed and first results are presented. Though temporally consistent in many cases, the obtained vertical motion rates are spatially highly variable. They are also much too high (several mm/year) to support a tectonic interpretation, and a long-term influence of groundwater level variations is proposed to account for the observed motions. This influence should be distinguished from seasonal variations and from inter-survey variations linked to the varying degree of soil and subsoil drying off during the successive spring surveys.     

Effects of pressure on aqueous chemical equilibria at subzero temperatures with applications to Europa

Pressure plays a critical role in controlling aqueous geochemical processes in deep oceans and deep ice. The putative ocean of Europa could have pressures of 1200 bars or higher on the seafloor, a pressure not dissimilar to the deepest ocean basin on Earth (the Mariana Trench at 1100 bars of pressure). At such high pressures, chemical thermodynamic relations need to explicitly consider pressure. A number of papers have addressed the role of pressure on equilibrium constants, activity coefficients, and the activity of water. None of these models deal, however, with processes at subzero temperatures, which may be important in cold environments on Earth and other planetary bodies. The objectives of this work were to (1) incorporate a pressure dependence into an existing geochemical model parameterized for subzero temperatures (FREZCHEM), (2) validate the model, and (3) simulate pressure-dependent processes on Europa. As part of objective 1, we examined two models for quantifying the volumetric properties of liquid water at subzero temperatures: one model is based on the measured properties of supercooled water, and the other model is based on the properties of liquid water in equilibrium with ice.The relative effect of pressure on solution properties falls in the order: equilibrium constants(K) > activity coefficients (γ) > activity of water (a_w). The errors (%) in our model associated with these properties, however, fall in the order: γ > K > a_w. The transposition between K and γ is due to a more accurate model for estimating K than for estimating γ. Only activity coefficients are likely to be significantly in error. However, even in this case, the errors are likely to be only in the range of 2 to 5% up to 1000 bars of pressure. Evidence based on the pressure/temperature melting of ice and salt solution densities argue in favor of the equilibrium water model, which depends on extrapolations, for characterizing the properties of liquid water in electrolyte solutions at subzero temperatures, rather than the supercooled water model. Model-derived estimates of mixed salt solution densities and chemical equilibria as a function of pressure are in reasonably good agreement with experimental measurements.To demonstrate the usefulness of this low-temperature, high-pressure model, we examined two hypothetical cases for Europa. Case 1 dealt with the ice cover of Europa, where we asked the question: How far above the putative ocean in the ice layer could we expect to find thermodynamically stable brine pockets that could serve as habitats for life? For a hypothetical nonconvecting 20 km icy shell, this potential life zone only extends 2.8 km into the icy shell before the eutectic is reached. For the case of a nonconvecting icy shell, the cold surface of Europa precludes stable aqueous phases (habitats for life) anywhere near the surface. Case 2 compared chemical equilibria at 1 bar (based on previous work) with a more realistic 1460 bars of pressure at the base of a 100 km Europan ocean. A pressure of 1460 bars, compared to 1 bar, caused a 12 K decrease in the temperature at which ice first formed and a 11 K increase in the temperature at which MgSO₄·12H₂O first formed. Remarkably, there was only a 1.2 K decrease in the eutectic temperatures between 1 and 1460 bars of pressure. Chemical systems and their response to pressure depend, ultimately, on the volumetric properties of individual constituents, which makes every system response highly individualistic.