BP神经网络模型在重庆伏旱预测中的应用研究

采用气象要素定义伏旱指数，利用小波分析等方法分析重庆地区伏旱变化特征，最后采用BP神经网络模型对伏旱进行预测试验，结果表明，重庆伏旱变化具有明显的阶段性特征，而基于BP神经网络模型的伏旱预测模型预测效果良好，可以应用于实际预测。     

A Comparative Study of the Atmospheric Layers below First Lifting Condensation Level for Instantaneous Pre-Monsoon Thunderstorm Ocurence at Agartala(23°30′N,91°15′E) and Ranchi(23°14′N,85°14′E) of India

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THE RETREAT OF THE FOREST IN SOUTHEAST ASIA: A CARTOGRAPHIC ASSESSMENT

Rapid deforestation is a major problem throughout the tropical world. The conditions and the pace under which societies and economies of the Third World are currently evolving and growing, combined with the specificities of tropical forests, render the latter increasingly vulnerable. Among the major tropical areas of the world, Southeast Asia is perhaps the one where these conditions have had the most impact on the retreat of the forest cover over the last quarter of this century. This is illustrated through the presentation of two maps of the distribution of five basic forest formations in Southeast Asia circa 1970 and circa 1990. The maps are examined and compared, as well as confronted with statistical assessments of deforestation. Finally, the complex causes behind the retreat of the tropical forests as well as the implications of this retreat are briefly discussed.     

P-SH conversions in a flat-layered medium with anisotropy of arbitrary orientation

P-SH conversion is commonly observed in teleseismic P waves, and is often attributed to dipping interfaces beneath the receiver. Our modelling suggests an alternative explanation in terms of flat-layered anisotropy. We use reflectivity techniques to compute three-component synthetic seismograms in a 1-D anisotropic layered medium. For each layer of the medium, we prescribe values of seismic velocities and hexagonally symmetric anisotropy about a common symmetry axis of arbitrary orientation. A compressional wave in an anisotropic velocity structure suffers conversion to both SV -and SH -polarized shear waves, unless the axis of symmetry is everywhere vertical or the wave travels parallel to all symmetry axes. The P-SV conversion forms the basis of the widely used 'receiver function' technique. The P-SH conversion occurs at interfaces where one or both layers are anisotropic. A tilted axis of symmetry and a dipping interface in isotropic media produce similar amplitudes of both direct ( P ) and converted ( Ps ) phases, leaving the backazimuth variation of the P-Ps delay as the main discriminant. Seismic anisotropy with a tilted symmetry axis leads to complex synthetic seismograms in velocity models composed of just a few flat homogeneous layers. It is possible therefore to model observations of P coda with prominent transverse components with relatively simple 1-D velocity structures. Successful retrieval of salient model characteristics appears possible using multiple realizations of a genetic-algorithm (GA) inversion of P coda from several backazimuths. Using GA inversion, we determine that six P coda recorded at station ARU in central Russia are consistent with models that possess strong (> 10 per cent) anisotropy in the top 5 km and between 30 and 43 km depth. The symmetry axes are tilted, and appear aligned with the seismic anisotropy orientation in the mantle under ARU suggested by SKS splitting.     

Primary minerals of Zn-Pb mining and metallurgical dumps and their environmental behavior at Plombières,Belgium

The primary phases and minerals of the Plombières dumps include typical smelting furnace products such as metallic Fe, Pb, Cu, Zn, Fe-Zn alloys, carbides, phosphides, sulfides of Fe, Zn, Pb, Cu, Mn (alabandite), and FeAs. Spinels, mainly of Fe and Al, are common constituents of the primary assemblage; substitution by Zn, V, Cr, Ti, Mg, and Ca occurs. Primary phases also include the most common Zn-rich fayalite, Zn-rich Ca-Fe silicates, melilite, corundum, and apatite. Most of the Zn is incorporated in iron silicates, ZnO and ZnS. Lead occurs mainly as PbS, metallic lead, and is also present in coal residues. Cadmium is found mainly in metallic zinc and its alloys and in ZnO. The dumps also contain mining wastes composed of pyrite, melnikovite, and iron oxides produced by natural weathering of Zn-Pb ores. Melnikovite and iron oxides are rich in As, Pb, and Zn and possess an increased content of Tl. Leaching tests carried out on the surfaces of polished sections indicate that acid rain (solutions I and II) will mobilize mainly Zn and Cd and, to a much smaller extent, Pb and Sb. Leaching of metals by sulfate-chloride fluids present in the pore network of dumps (solutions III, IV, and V) depends on the pH, which in the dumps is controlled by the proportion of carbonates to sulfides. The more acid fluids leach both sulfides and silicates.     

Mitigating the Effects of Climate Change on the Water Resources of the Columbia River Basin

The potential effects of climate change on the hydrology and water resources of the Columbia River Basin (CRB) were evaluated using simulations from the U.S. Department of Energy and National Center for Atmospheric Research Parallel Climate Model (DOE/NCAR PCM). This study focuses on three climate projections for the 21st century based on a `business as usual' (BAU) global emissions scenario, evaluated with respect to a control climate scenario based on static 1995 emissions. Time-varying monthly PCM temperature and precipitation changes were statistically downscaled and temporally disaggregated to produce daily forcings that drove a macro-scale hydrologic simulation model of the Columbia River basin at 1/4-degree spatial resolution. For comparison with the direct statistical downscaling approach, a dynamical downscaling approach using a regional climate model (RCM) was also used to derive hydrologic model forcings for 20-year subsets from the PCM control climate (1995–2015) scenario and from the three BAU climate(2040–2060) projections. The statistically downscaled PCM scenario results were assessed for three analysis periods (denoted Periods 1–3: 2010–2039,2040–2069, 2070–2098) in which changes in annual average temperature were +0.5,+1.3 and +2.1 °C, respectively, while critical winter season precipitation changes were –3, +5 and +1 percent. For RCM, the predicted temperature change for the 2040–2060 period was +1.2 °C and the average winter precipitation change was –3 percent, relative to the RCM controlclimate. Due to the modest changes in winter precipitation, temperature changes dominated the simulated hydrologic effects by reducing winter snow accumulation, thus shifting summer streamflow to the winter. The hydrologic changes caused increased competition for reservoir storage between firm hydropower and instream flow targets developed pursuant to the Endangered Species Act listing of Columbia River salmonids. We examined several alternative reservoir operating policies designed to mitigate reservoir system performance losses. In general, the combination of earlier reservoir refill with greater storage allocations for instream flow targets mitigated some of the negative impacts to flow, but only with significant losses in firm hydropower production (ranging from –9 percent in Period1 to –35 percent for RCM). Simulated hydropower revenue changes were lessthan 5 percent for all scenarios, however, primarily due to small changes inannual runoff.     

Evolution of sand waves in the Messina Strait, Italy

In the present paper the morphodynamics of sand waves in the Messina Strait, Italy, is analysed by comparing data gathered during two different surveys carried out in 1991 and 2001, respectively. In particular, a morphometric analysis on the most recent data and a qualitative analysis of the differences between bottom bedform patterns, are carried out. At locations characterised by greater depths, only minor changes to the planimetric configuration of the field, i.e. crest orientation (which is seen to be orthogonal to the direction of net gross sand transport) and wave length are observed, while differences in wave length and crest direction are more evident in more shallow areas. On the other hand, wave height has significantly increased in the whole field. A possible explanation of such a change, based on the previsions of a theory which relates sand-wave growth and migration to the main components of the tidal ellipse, is provided.Responsible Editor: Jens Kappenberg     

Dislocating modernity: Identity, space and representations of street trade in Durban, South Africa

South Africa’s cities have experienced dramatic changes over the past decade. Cities are now home to a multiracial population, and have been transformed by new forms of economic and social interaction. For some, these changes have become a significant source of fear and anxiety. In this paper, we examine reactions to urban spatial change in the city of Durban, as expressed in local newspapers and interviews with suburban residents. We describe how the discourses of urban change in Durban have centred on the increased presence of street traders within the city’s public spaces, and the various ways in which the activity of street trade has disrupted long-established modernist norms governing the occupation and use of the urban space. Specifically, we offer a detailed reading of three prominent narratives within the discussion of street traders in Durban--chaos, congestion and pollution. We argue that street traders have come to embody a wide range of more deeply seated cultural anxieties, which have been brought to the fore in the context of South Africa’s transition. These anxieties arise from the ways in which modern understandings of order, agency and subjectivity have been called into question by material changes in the city, and have implications for the nature of citizenship and civic engagement in post-apartheid South Africa.