Imposex still evident in eastern Australia 10 years after tributyltin restrictions

A survey of imposex in Thais orbita (Neogastropoda) along the New South Wales (NSW) coast, Australia, found imposex was still widespread 10 years after a partial ban on tributyltin (TBT) based antifouling paints. Transplant experiments also revealed that imposex was induced in T. orbita over a period of 9 weeks in Sydney Harbour, NSW. A comparison of the imposex data with that collected shortly after the introduction of restrictions on TBT revealed a general decline in imposex frequency occurring at open coast sites, an exception being the site at South West Rocks. Sites located within harbour/bay areas did not display a decline in imposex frequency but a decline in the severity of imposex was apparent. The observed decrease in imposex values in T. orbita may reflect a general decrease of butyltin contamination within the coastal environment. However, the persistence of contamination "hotspots" within harbours and bays remains a concern.     

Variability of organic δC and C/N in the Mersey Estuary, U.K. and its implications for sea-level reconstruction studies

Microfossil analysis (e.g. diatoms, foraminifera and pollen) represents the cornerstone of Holocene relative sea-level (RSL) reconstruction because their distribution in the contemporary inter-tidal zone is principally controlled by ground elevation within the tidal frame. A combination of poor microfossil preservation and a limited range in the sediment record may severely restrict the accuracy of resulting RSL reconstructions. Organic δ¹³C and C/N analysis of inter-tidal sediments have shown some potential as coastal palaeoenvironmental proxies. Here we assess their viability for reconstructing RSL change by examining patterns of organic δ¹³C and C/N values in a modern estuarine environment. δ¹³C and C/N analysis of bulk organic inter-tidal sediments and vegetation, as well as suspended and bedload organic sediments of the Mersey Estuary, U.K., demonstrate that the two main sources of organic carbon to surface saltmarsh sediments (terrestrial vegetation and tidal-derived particulate organic matter) have distinctive δ¹³C and C/N signatures. The resulting relationship between ground elevation within the tidal frame and surface sediment δ¹³C and C/N is unaffected by decompositional changes. The potential of this technique for RSL reconstruction is demonstrated by the analysis of part of an early Holocene sediment core from the Mersey Estuary. Organic δ¹³C and C/N analysis is less time consuming than microfossil analysis and is likely to provide continuous records of RSL change.     

Contributions to atmospheric methane by natural seepages on the U.K. continental shelf [Mar. Geol. 137 (1997) 165–189]

Natural gas seepages occur on the United Kingdom's continental shelf and although published reports suggest that they are very rare, the petroleum industry has identified, but not publicly reported, many more. There is also very little data on the flux of gas from seabed seepages, and even less on the contribution of seepages to atmospheric concentrations of gases such as methane.

Potential gas source rocks include Quaternary and Tertiary peats as well as petroliferous source rocks such as the Carboniferous Coal Measures and the Upper Jurassic Kimmeridge Clays. There are also other organic-rich sediments which are potential source rocks. Together these cover a considerable part of the U.K. continental shelf.

Analogue seismic reflection (pinger) profiles acquired during the British Geological Survey's regional mapping programme have been reviewed to identify water column targets including fish and plumes of gas bubbles. The ability to distinguish targets is critical to an assessment of the distribution of gas seepages. Both theoretical predictions of target identity and the habits of shoaling fish have been investigated in order to identify a method of distinction.

Data from seabed seepages and measurements of seepage rates have been used to establish likely ranges of gas flux rates and the sizes of gas bubbles. The likelihood that a rising bubble will survive and escape into the atmosphere is determined primarily by bubble size and water depth; methane, the principal constituent of seepage gas, is relatively unreactive and sparingly soluble.

The studies have enabled a new estimate of the distribution of gas seepages on the U.K. continental shelf, and of the contribution to atmospheric methane levels. The results suggest that natural gas seepages are significantly more important as a source of methane than had hitherto been established. It is estimated that between 120,000 and 3.5 mtonnes of methane per year come from a continental shelf area of about 600,000 km². This represents between 2% and 40% of the total United Kingdom methane emission. It is suggested that similar contributions arise from other continental shelf areas worldwide, and that geological sources of atmospheric methane are more significant than is generally acknowledged.     

Vertical migration and mortality of benthos in dredged material: Part II—crustacea

Benthic invertebrates have many characteristics which make them prime candidates for burial studies in dredged material. A major concern in dredging and disposal projects is the effect of burial on the survival of benthic invertebrates. The purpose of the research reported in this paper was to determine the ability of estuarine benthos—in particular three species of molluscs (Mercenaria mercenaria, Nucula proxima and Ilyanassa obsoleta)—to migrate vertically in natural and exotic sediments and to determine the survival of benthos when exposed to particular amounts of simulated dredged material.Mortalities generally increased with increased sediment depth, with increased burial time and with overlying sediments whose particle size distribution differed from that of the species native sediment. Temperature affected mortalities and vertical migration. It was concluded that vertical migration is a viable process which can significantly affect rehabilitation of a dredged disposal area. Under certain conditions, vertical migration should be considered, together with larval settling and immigration from outside impacted areas, as a mechanism of recruiting a dredgedump site.     

An early estimate for the size of cycle 23

Two features are found in the modern era sunspot record (cycles 10–22: ca. 1850-present) that may prove useful for gauging the size of cycle 23, the next sunspot cycle, several years ahead of its actual onset. These features include an inferred long-term increase against time of maximum amplitude (RM, the maximum value of smoothed sunspot number for a cycle) and the apparently inherent differing natures of even- and odd-numbered sunspot cycles, especially when grouped consecutively as even-odd cycle pairs. Concerning the first feature, one finds that 6 out of the last 6 sunspot cycles have had RM 110.6 (the median value for the modern era record) and that 4 out of 6 have had RM > 150. Presuming this trend to continue, one anticipates that cycle 23 will likewise have RM 110.6 and, perhaps, RM > 150. Concerning the second feature, one finds that, when one groups sunspot cycles into consecutively paired even-odd cycles, the odd-following cycle has always been the larger cycle, 6 out of 6 times. Because cycle 22 had RM = 158.5, one anticipates that cycle 23 will have RM > 158.5. Additionally, because the average difference between RM(odd) and RM(even) for consecutively paired even-odd cycles is 40.3 units (sd = 14.2), one expects cycle 23 to have RM 162.3 (RM = 198.8 ± 36.5 at the 95% level of confidence). Further, because of the rather strong linear correlation (r = 0,959, se = 13.5) found between RM(odd) and RM(even) for consecutively paired even-odd cycles, one infers that cycle 23 should have RM 176.4 (RM = 213.9 ± 37.5 at the 95% level of confidence). Since large values of RM tend to be associated with fast rising cycles of short ascent duration and high levels of 10.7-cm solar radio flux, cycle 23 is envisioned to be potentially one of the greatest cycles of the modern era, if not the greatest.     

Textures in a poikilitic olivine gabbro cumulate: Evidence for supercooling

Summary Supercooling of repeated influxes of high-MgO ( 13.5 wt% MgO) tholeiitic magma emplaced along the floor of the Kap Edvard Holm magma chamber led to the formation of fine grained, intraplutonic quench zones that define the bases of 12 macrorhythmic units. The quench zones grade upwards into poikilitic cumulates containing olivine dendrites, suggesting supercooling by 40°C. Supercooling led to early, precumulus crystallization of metastable, non-equilibrium plagioclase, followed by co-precipitation of cumulus plagioclase and olivine. Later nucleation of clinopyroxene followed by rapid growth led to crystallization of zoned oikocrysts during the cumulus stage, followed by postcumulus overgrowth and crystallization of discrete intercumulus grains. At least four generations of plagioclase crystals appear to be preserved.

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Gefüge in einem poikilitischen Olivingabbro-Kumulat: Hinweis auf Unterkühlung

Zusammenfassung Unterkühlung von mehrmals nachströmendem MgO-reichen (ca. 13,5 Gew.% MgO), tholeiitischen Magma, das sich am Boden der Magmenkammer vom Kap Edvard Holm sammelte, führte zur Bildung von feinkbrnigen Zonen mit Abschreckungsgefüge, die jeweils die Basis von 12 makrorhythmischen Einheiten bilden. Diese Zonen gehen im Hangenden in poikilitische Kumulate über, die Olivin-Dendriten enthalten, was auf eine Unterkühlung um ca. 40°C hindeutet. Die Unterkühlung führte zu einer frühen präkumulativen Kristallisation von metastabilem, nicht im Gleichgewicht befindlichem Plagioklas, gefolgt von gleichzeitiger Präzipitation von Kumulus-Plagioklas und -Olivin. Eine spätere Keimbildung von Klinopyroxen, die von raschem Wachstum abgelöst wurde, führte während der Akkumulation zur Kristallisation von zonierten Oikokrysten. Danach folgte eine postkumulative Überwachsung und die Kristallisation von Einzelkörnern in den Zwischenräumen. Zumindest vier Generationen von Plagioklaskristallen scheinen erhalten zu sein.

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With 5 Figures     

On the use of ‘first spotless day’ as a predictor for sunspot minimum

Defining the first spotless day of a sunspot cycle as the first day without spots relative to sunspot maximum during the decline of the solar cycle, one finds that the timing of that occurrence can be used as a predictor for the occurrence of solar minimum of the following cycle. For cycle 22, the first spotless day occurred in April 1994, based on the International sunspot number index, although other indices (Boulder and American) indicated the first spotless day to have occurred earlier (September 1993). For cycles 9–14, sunspot minimum followed the first spotless day by about 72 months, having a range of 62–82 months; for cycles 15–21, sunspot minimum followed the first spotless day by about 35 months, having a range of 27–40 months. Similarly, the timing of first spotless day relative to sunspot minimum and maximum for the same cycle reveals that it followed minimum (maximum) by about 69 (18) months during cycles 9–14 and by about 90 (44) months during cycles 15–21. Accepting April 1994 as the month of first spotless day occurrence for cycle 22, one finds that it occurred 91 months into the cycle and 57 months following sunspot maximum. Such values indicate that its behavior more closely matches that found for cycles 15–21 rather than for cycles 9–14. Therefore, one infers that sunspot minimum for cycle 23 will occur in about 2–3 years, or about April 1996 to April 1997. Accepting the earlier date of first spotless day occurrence indicates that sunspot minimum for cycle 23 could come several months earlier, perhaps late 1995.The U.S. Government right to retain a non-exclusive, royalty free licence in and to any copyright is acknowledged.     

Coronal changes associated with a disappearing filament

This paper describes Skylab/ATM observations of the events associated with a disappearing filament near the center of the solar disk on January 18, 1974. As the filament disappeared, the nearby coronal plasma was heated to a temperature in excess of 6 × 10⁶K. A change in the pattern of coronal emission occurred during the 11/3 hr period that the soft X-ray flux was increasing. This change seemed to consist of the formation and apparent expansion of a loop-like coronal structure which remained visible until its passage around the west limb several days later. The time history of the X-ray and microwave radio flux displayed the well-known gradual-rise-and-fall (GRF) signature, suggesting that this January 18 event may have properties characteristic of a wide class of X-ray and radio events.In pursuit of this idea, we examined other spatially-resolved Skylab/ATM observations of long-duration X-ray events to see what characteristics they may have in common. Nineteen similar long-lived SOLRAD X-ray events having either the GRF or post-burst radio classification occurred during the nine-month Skylab mission. Sixteen of these occurred during HAO/ATM coronagraph observations, and 7 of these 16 events occurred during observations with both the NRL/ATM slitless spectrograph and the MSFC-A/ATM X-ray telescope. The tabulation of these events suggests that all long-lived SOLRAD X-ray bursts involve transients in the outer corona and that at least two-thirds of the bursts involve either the eruption or major activation of a prominence. Also, these observations indicate that long-lived SOLARD events are characterized by the appearance of new loops of emission in the lower corona during the declining phase of the X-ray emission. However, sometimes these loops disappear after the X-ray event (like the post-flare loops associated with a sporadic coronal condensation), and sometimes the loops remain indefinitely (like the emission from a permanent coronal condensation).Visiting Scientist, Kitt Peak National Observatory, Tucson, Ariz. 85726, U.S.A. operated by the Association of Universities for Research in Astronomy, Inc., under contract with the National Science Foundation.Presently located at NASA/MSFC, Space Sciences Laboratory, Marshall Space Flight Center, Ala. 35812, U. S.A.     

Changes in the circulation of Tampa Bay due to Hurricane Frances as recorded by ADCP measurements and reproduced with a numerical Ocean model

Hurricane Frances is shown to greatly alter the hydrodynamics within Tampa Bay, Florida, and the exchange of water with the Gulf of Mexico in both observational data and a realistic numerical circulation model of the Tampa Bay estuary. Hurricane Frances hit Tampa Bay on September 5, 2004 with surface winds peaking twice near 22 m s⁻¹. There were three stages to the hydrodynamic effect of Frances on Tampa Bay. The first stage included the approach of Frances up to the first wind peak. The winds were to the south and southeast. During this stage sea level was maintained below mean sea level (MSL) and the residual current (demeaned, detided) was weak. The second stage began as the winds turned to the east and northeast, as the eye passed near the bay, and ended as the second wind peak appeared. During this stage the residual currents were strongly positive (into the bay), raising sea level to 1.2 m above MSL at St. Petersburg. The measured residual circulation peaked at over +0.7 m s⁻¹ near the surface. The model shows this velocity peak yielded a maximum volume flux into the bay of +44,227 m³ s⁻¹, displacing a total volume of 1.5 billion m³ in just a few hours, about 42% of the bay volume. In the third stage a strong negative flow developed as the wind and sea level relaxed to near normal levels. The ADCP measured a peak outflow of −0.8 m s⁻¹ during this time. Model results indicate a maximum flux of −37,575 m³ s⁻¹, and that it took about 50 h to drain the extra volume driven into the bay by Hurricane Frances.