Climate change and infectious diseases: Can we meet the needs for better prediction?

The next generation of climate-driven, disease prediction models will most likely require a mechanistically based, dynamical framework that parameterizes key processes at a variety of locations. Over the next two decades, consensus climate predictions make it possible to produce forecasts for a number of important infectious diseases that are largely independent of the uncertainty of longer-term emissions scenarios. In particular, the role of climate in the modulation of seasonal disease transmission needs to be unravelled from the complex dynamics resulting from the interaction of transmission with herd immunity and intervention measures that depend upon previous burdens of infection. Progress is also needed to solve the mismatch between climate projections and disease projections at the scale of public health interventions. In the time horizon of seasons to years, early warning systems should benefit from current developments on multi-model ensemble climate prediction systems, particularly in areas where high skill levels of climate models coincide with regions where large epidemics take place. A better understanding of the role of climate extremes on infectious diseases is urgently needed.     

Gas kinematics in the halo of the warm ULIRG PKS1345+12

We use long-slit spectra taken with the William Herschel Telescope on La Palma and high-resolution Hubble Space Telescope imaging to study the gas kinematic in the halo of the ultraluminous infrared/radio galaxy PKS1345+12 (z=0.122). Our long-slit spectra show line splitting at the locations of massive star clusters ( $10^{6}<M_{\mathrm{SSC}}^{\mathrm{YSP}}<10^{7}$ M_⊙), indicating that they are moving at up to 450 km?s^?1 with respect to the local ambient gas. Given their kinematics, it is plausible that these super star clusters have been formed either in fast-moving gas streams or tidal tails that are falling back into the nuclear regions as part of the merger process, or as a consequence of jet-induced star formation linked to the extended, diffuse radio emission detected in the halo of the galaxy.     

Building a 3D geomodel for water resources management: case study in the Regional Park of the lower courses of Manzanares and Jarama Rivers (Madrid, Spain)

Water resources management of protected sites requires a powerful tool to analyze the process and changes that are occurring in the environment. This paper describes a 3D geomodel design of the Jarama River Detrital Aquifer located in Madrid (Spain). That hydrogeological unit is included in the “Parque Regional de los Cursos Bajos de los Ríos Manzanares y Jarama” (Regional Park of the Lower Courses of Manzanares and Jarama Rivers). The goal of this work is to define a method by which a three-dimensional (3D) model can be created with hydrogeologic geometry real of main aquifer, to accomplish an adequate management of the groundwater resources. All data used in this study were integrated in a geographic database: geological and hydrogeological information, geological map (1:25,000), eleven cross-sections, piezometric maps and a digital elevation model. The constructed 3D model of the Jarama Aquifer shows geometric features and spatial distribution and variations of geologic units. Thus, the 3D model allows the assessment of volumes of each unit, the depth and thickness variations of the main aquifer, and the spatial and temporal variations of water tables. From the 3D model, the most suitable areas (in terms of groundwater protection) for managed recharge and mining works have been identified.     

Results from MAGIC’s first observation cycle on galactic sources

During its Cycle I (2005/2006), the MAGIC telescope targeted about 250 hours several galactic γ-ray sources detected previously by other experiments or expected to emit in the same energy domain. This paper reviews some results of such MAGIC observations. We cover, among others, supernova remnants, the Galactic Center and microquasars. We will concentrate on the recent discovery of very high energy γ-rays from the microquasar LS I +61 303.     

Mid and late Holocene forest fires and deforestation in the subalpine belt of the Iberian range,northern Spain

The conversion of subalpine forests into grasslands for pastoral use is a well-knownphenomenon, although for most mountain areas the timing of deforestation has not been determined. The presence of charcoal fragments in soil profiles affected by shallow landsliding enabled us to date the occurrence of fires and the periods of conversion ofsubalpine forest into grasslands in the Urbión Mountains, Iberian Range, Spain. We found that the treeline in the highest parts of the northwestern massifs of the Iberian Range(the Urbión, Demanda, Neila, and Cebollera massifs) is currently between 1500 and 1600 m a.s.l., probably because of pastoral use of the subalpine belt, whereas in the past it would have reached almost the highest divides(at approximately 2100–2200 m a.s.l.). The radiocarbon dates obtained indicate that the transformation of the subalpine belt occurred during the Late Neolithic, Chalcolithic, Bronze Age, Iron Age, and Middle Ages. Forest clearing was probably moderate during fires prior to the Middle Ages, as the small size of the sheep herds and the local character of the markets only required small clearings, and therefore more limited fires. Thus, it is likely that the forest recovered burnt areas in a few decades; this suggests the management of the forest and grasslands following a slash-andburn system. During the Middle and Modern Ages deforestation and grassland expansion affected most of the subalpine belt and coincided with the increasing prevalence of transhumance, as occurred in other mountains in the Iberian Peninsula(particularly the Pyrenees). Although the occurrence of shallow landslides following deforestation between the Neolithic and the Roman Period cannot be ruled out, the most extensive shallow landsliding processes would have occurred from the Middle Ages until recent times.     

Effect of galvanic distortions on the series and parallel magnetotelluric impedances and comparison with other responses

The series and parallel impedances of the magnetotelluric tensor are appraised in relation to their relative immunity to galvanic electric distortions. The distorted responses are modeled using the Groom-Bailey decomposition of the tensor in terms of twist, shear, statics and strike direction. These four parameters and the undistorted responses are normally considered as unknowns, and are obtained from field data through the solution of an inverse problem. In the present work we use the decomposition as a forward model to simulate distorted sounding curves. Starting with undistorted 2-d te and tm responses, the tensor is distorted by assuming arbitrary values of twist, shear, static and strike direction. By default, both series and parallel responses are immune to the strike direction because they are invariants under rotation. In addition, series responses are immune to twist and shear and parallel responses only to twist. The dependence of the latter on shear is in the form of a real factor that shifts downwards the amplitude curves. On the other hand, the effect of statics on both series and parallel responses is more complicated than that on the impedance tensor because it cannot be accounted for by a simple shift of the curves. On the whole, there is a positive balance on the part of the series and parallel impedances over the te and tm responses because some of the distortions are filtered out by the invariants. It is shown that invariance is not sufficient to be immune to any of the distortions. The example chosen is Eggers’ eigenvalues, which are immune only to the by-the-fault strike direction. Invariance is not necessary either, as evidenced by the phase tensor, whose elements depend on strike but are immune to all distortions. The derivations are illustrated using soundings from the synthetic coprod2s1 and field-recorded coprod2 and bc87 data sets.     

Upper Cretaceous marine‐continental transition (Leonese Area,NW Spain) defined from integrated outcrop and seismic stratigraphy

The Upper Cretaceous succession of the Leonese Area (NW Spain) comprises mixed clastic and carbonate sediments. This succession is divided into two lithostratigraphic units, the Voznuevo Member and the Boñar Formation, which represent fluvial, shoreface, intertidal, subtidal and open‐shelf sedimentary environments. Regional seismic interpretation and sequence stratigraphic analysis have allowed the study of lateral and vertical changes in the sedimentary record and the definition of third‐order levels of stratigraphic cyclicity. On the basis of these data, the succession can be divided into two second‐order depositional sequences (DS‐1 and DS‐2), incorporating three system tracts in a lowstand to transgressive to highstand system tract succession (LST–TST–HST). These sequences are composed of fluvial systems at the base with palaeocurrents that flowed westward and south‐westward. The upper part of DS‐1 (Late Albian–Middle Turonian) shows evidence of intertidal to subtidal and offshore deposits. DS‐2 (Late Turonian–Campanian) comprises intertidal to subtidal, tidal flat, shallow marine and lacustrine deposits and interbedded fluvial deposits. Two regressive–transgressive cycles occurred in the area related to eustatic controls. The evolution of the basin can be explained by base‐level changes and associated shifts in depositional trends of successive retrogradational episodes. By using isobath and isopach maps, the main palaeogeographic features of DS‐1 and DS‐2 were constrained, namely coastline positions, the existence and orientation of corridors through which fluvial networks were channelled and the location of the main depocentres of the basin. Sedimentation on the Upper Cretaceous marine platform was mainly controlled by (i) oscillations of sea level and (ii) the orientation of Mesozoic faults, which induced sedimentation along depocentres. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.