Application of cokriging techniques for the estimation of hail size

There are primarily two ways of estimating hail size: the first is the direct interpolation of point observations, and the second is the transformation of remote sensing fields into measurements of hail properties. Both techniques have advantages and limitations as regards generating the resultant map of hail damage. This paper presents a new methodology that combines the above mentioned techniques in an attempt to minimise the limitations and take advantage of the benefits of interpolation and the use of remote sensing data. The methodology was tested for several episodes with good results being obtained for the estimation of hail size at practically all the points analysed. The study area presents a large database of hail episodes, and for this reason, it constitutes an optimal test bench.     

Experimental study of the effect of pH on the kinetics of montmorillonite dissolution at 25 °C

The effect of pH on the kinetics of smectite (K-montmorillonite) dissolution was investigated at 25 °C in batch and stirred flow-through reactors over the pH range of 1-13.5, in KNO₃ solutions. Dissolution rates were obtained based on the release of Si and Al at steady-state under far from equilibrium conditions. Dissolution was non-stoichiometric between pH 5 and 10, due to adsorption/precipitation of Al. Dissolution rates computed from batch and flow-through experiments were consistent, irrespective of the Si and Al concentrations. Sample pre-treatment and the interlayer cation do not affect the steady-state dissolution rate or stoichiometry of cation release. The rate dependence on pH can be described by:

     

Tectonic and oceanographic control of sedimentary patterns in a small oceanic basin: Dove Basin (Scotia Sea,Antarctica)

Dove Basin, a small oceanic domain located within the southern Scotia Sea, evidences a complex tectonic evolution linked to the development of the Scotia Arc. The basin also straddles the junction between the main Southern Ocean water masses: the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC), the Southeast Pacific Deep Water (SPDW) and the Weddell Sea Deep Water (WSDW). Analysis of multichannel seismic reflection profiles, together with swath bathymetry data, reveals the main structure and sediment distribution of the basin, allowing a reconstruction of the tectonostratigraphic evolution of the basin and assessment of the main bottom water flows that influenced its depositional development. Sediment dispersed in the basin was largely influenced by gravity‐driven transport from adjacent continental margins, later modified by deep bottom currents. Sediments derived from melting icebergs and extensive ice sheets also contributed to a fraction of the basin deposits. We identify four stages in the basin evolution which – based on regional age assumptions – took place during the early Miocene, middle Miocene, late Miocene–early Pliocene and late Pliocene–Quaternary. The onsets of the ACC flow in Dove Basin during the early Miocene, the WSDW flow during the middle Miocene, and the SPDW during the late Miocene were influenced by tectonic events that facilitated the opening of new oceanic gateways in the region. The analysis of Dove Basin reveals that tectonics is a primary factor influencing its sedimentary stacking patterns, the structural development of new oceanic gateways permitting the inception of deep‐water flows that have since controlled the sedimentary processes.     

Future variability of droughts in three Mediterranean catchments

This study investigates the intensity change in typhoons and storm surges surrounding the Korean Peninsula under global warming conditions as obtained from the MPI_ECHAM5 climate model using the A1B series. The authors use the Cyclostationary Empirical Orthogonal Function to estimate future background fields for typhoon simulations from twenty-first-century prediction results. A series of numerical experiments applies WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) and POM (Prinston Ocean Model) models to simulate two historical typhoons, Maemi (2003) and Rusa (2002), and associated storm surges under real historical and future warming conditions. Applying numerical experiments to two typhoons, this study found that their central pressure dropped about 19 and 17 hPa, respectively, when considering the future sea surface temperature (a warming of 3.9 °C for 100 years) over the East China Sea (Exp. 1). The associated enhancement of storm surge height ranged from 16 to 67 cm along the southern coast of the Korean Peninsula. However, when the study considered global warming conditions for other atmospheric variables such as sea-level pressure, air temperature, relative humidity, geopotential height, and wind in the typhoon simulations (Exp. 2), the intensities of the two typhoons and their associated surge heights scarcely increased compared to the results of Exp. 1. Analyzing projected atmospheric variables, the authors found that air temperatures at the top of the storm around 200 hPa increased more than those at the surface in tropical and mid-latitudes. The reduced vertical temperature difference provided an unfavorable condition in the typhoon’s development even under conditions of global warming. This suggests that global warming may not always correlate with a large increase in the number of intense cyclones and/or an increase in associated storm surges.     

Error determination in the photogrammetric assessment of shoreline changes

The evaluation of error or uncertainty in shoreline change studies is an issue of prime importance for providing an adequate framework for calculated rates of change and to allow the establishment of threshold values above which the rates would be significant. In this note, a practical, easy-to-use method is presented to estimate error involved in the calculation of shoreline changes on aerial photographs, including the three most used types of shoreline indicators: high water line, dune/cliff toe and cliff top. This approach takes into account the specific characteristics of each shoreline proxy, such as relief in the case of the cliff top or tidal oscillations in the case of the high water line. At the same time it includes the error components that are independent from the proxy, basically related to the technical aspects of the process such as photo scanning and georeferencing. A practical example of application of the method is provided for several types of data inputs, based on shoreline changes around the Bay of Cádiz (SW Spain).     

Thermal instability in turbulent models of the Interstellar Medium

We discuss numerical simulations (and issues) of the atomic ISM tailored to investigate the possible existence of significant amounts of gas in the temperature range between the warm and cold stable phases. We attribute the presence of this gas to two facts: the enhanced stability of moderate, adiabatic-like velocityfluctuations occurring when the ratio of the cooling to the dynamical crossingtime is large, and the recycling of gas from the denseto the diffuse phase by stellar energy injection. Weconclude by suggesting that the gas with unstable temperatures can beobservationally distinguished through simultaneous determination of twoof its thermodynamic variables.     

Turbulent Fragmentation and Star Formation

We review the main results from recent numerical simulations of turbulent fragmentation and star formation. Specifically, we discuss the observed scaling relationships, the “quiescent” (subsonic) nature of many star-forming cores, their energy balance, their synthesized polarized dust emission, the ages of stars associated with the molecular gas from which they have formed, the mass spectra of clumps, and the density and column density probability distribution function of the gas. We then give a critical discussion on recent attempts to explain and/or predict the star formation efficiency and the stellar initial mass function from the statistical nature of turbulent fields. Finally, it appears that turbulent fragmentation alone cannot account for the final stages of fragmentation: although the turbulent velocity field is able to produce filaments, the spatial distribution of cores in such filaments is better explained in terms of gravitational fragmentation.     

Molecular Clouds: Formation and Disruption

Molecular clouds (MC) are the densest and coldestcomponent of the interstellar gas, and the sites of starformation. They are also turbulent and fractaland theirmasses and sizes span several orders of magnitude. It is also generally believed that they are close to Virial equilibrium (VE).Since this statement has beenquestioned by a number of authors, with important implicationson molecular clouds’ lifetimes, we will review this subjectwithin the context of a turbulent ISM. In this framework, there issignificant numerical evidence that MCs are not in VE, that there is a strong exchange of mass, momentum and energy between clouds and their surrounding medium, andthat it is difficult (if not impossible) to form quasistatic coresinside MCs, suggesting that they must be transient, short-livedphenomena. Thus, their formation and disruption must be primarily dynamical, and probably not due tojust a single mechanism, but rather to the combination of severalprocesses. This picture seems consistent withrecent estimates of ages of stars in the solar neighborhood.