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641.
Countries can use both mitigation and adaptation strategies to protect their citizens from catastrophic risk posed by climate
change (e.g., shift in the jet stream). A nation can mitigate by reducing CO2 emissions, which reduces the probability of a catastrophic event; it can adapt by altering the infrastructure so that damages
can be reduced in the event a catastrophe is realized. Herein we add to the current literature by extending the endogenous
risk framework into a dynamic framework permitting analysis of both mitigation and adaptation while allowing for the dynamic
process of global climate change. Our results suggest adaptation to catastrophe is a small fraction of the national climate
protection budget relative to mitigation when nations cooperate fully, when damages are both continuous and catastrophic,
and when nations have a short planning horizon. Adaptation becomes more important relative to mitigation when nations are
unlikely to cooperate, when damages are mainly catastrophic, or when the nation’s planning horizon increases. 相似文献
642.
643.
The present study describes a procedure for quantitatively analyzing satellite telemetry data to identify interspecific land use differences among four threatened crane species. The inherent inaccuracy of satellite telemetry data points, the temporal autocorrelation of those points, and the resolution of two land‐cover imagery products from the IGBP‐DISCover Global Land‐Cover Characterization Project (derived from AVHRR data) were assessed and integrated in a GIS. Satellite telemetry is a system where animals are tracked using battery‐operated transmitters and locations are calculated using triangulation from satellites. Using the variable spatial inaccuracy of the telemetry locations, each point was buffered using a radius based on the accuracy of the point, and then intersected with the land cover imagery. The research concluded that the methodology is valuable for studies of birds at a regional scale, with interspecific differences clearly evident, but that diurnal and nocturnal differences were not discernable due to the coarse resolution of both satellite telemetry and land‐cover data. 相似文献
644.
Jason Ronald Janke 《Geografiska Annaler: Series A, Physical Geography》2005,87(4):515-526
Flow rates for rock glaciers in the European Alps have been monitored using photogrammetric techniques; however, a program has not been initiated for similar Front Range, USA, rock glaciers. Horizontal rock glacier displacements were measured by tracking large surficial rocks on temporal orthophotos from 1978, 1990, and 1999. Vertical change was measured by creating digital elevation models (DEMs) from digital stereopairs, then subtracting elevations to detect change. Long‐term horizontal velocities ranged from 14 to 20 cm/yr on average, although uncertainty ranged from 4 to 5 cm/yr. On average, vertical elevation changes were negligible with most rock glaciers exhibiting a slight growth or thinning (1–2 cm/yr). Over shorter time scales (c. 10‐year periods), horizontal velocities have only increased by about 2 cm/yr. Because horizontal and vertical change is minimal, Front Range rock glaciers appear to be adjusted with current climate, unlike some rock glaciers in the European Alps that have shown increasing subsidence rates or significant increasing or decreasing horizontal velocities. 相似文献
645.
Karsten Jedamzik & Jason X. Prochaska 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》1998,296(2):430-436
We employ observationally determined intrinsic velocity widths and column densities of damped Lyman alpha (Lyα) systems at high redshift to investigate the distribution of baryons in protogalaxies within the context of a standard cold dark matter (CDM) model. We proceed under the assumption that damped Lyα systems represent a population of cold, rotationally supported, protogalactic discs, and that the abundance of dark matter haloes is well approximated by a CDM model with critical density and vanishing cosmological constant. Using conditional cross-sections to observe a damped system with a given velocity width and column density, we compare observationally inferred velocity width and column density distributions to the corresponding theoretically determined distributions for a variety of disc parameters and CDM normalizations. In general, we find that the observations cannot be reproduced by the models for most disc parameters and CDM normalizations. Whereas the column density distribution favours small discs with large neutral gas fraction, the velocity width distribution favours large and thick discs with small neutral gas fraction. The possible resolutions of this problem in the context of this CDM model may be (1) an increased contribution of rapidly rotating discs within massive dark matter haloes to damped Lyα absorption, or (2) the abandoning of simple disc models within this CDM model for damped Lyα systems at high redshift. Here the first possibility may be achieved by supposing that damped Lyα system formation occurs only in haloes with fairly large circular velocities, and the second possibility may result from a large contribution of mergers and double discs to damped Lyα absorption at high redshift. 相似文献
646.
混合岩中浅色体的有限迁移及其对变形分解的影响 总被引:5,自引:0,他引:5
熔体在地壳和地幔中怎样迁移及其动力学是地质学中的一个重要问题。作为地壳深融作用的产物 ,混合岩中的浅色体提供了一个极好的机会来探讨影响地壳熔体在中下地壳迁移的因素。为此 ,我们对美国加州南 Sierra Nevada岩基中典型的混合岩、变泥质岩及邻近的花岗闪长岩进行了详细的主要元素地球化学和野外构造变形分析 ,同时应用流体动力学理论估算了在中下地壳条件下 ,典型浅色体的迁移距离。南 Sierra Nevada岩基中的混合岩中的浅色体厚度为 1mm至 1cm。在部分熔融程度较高的区域 (>10 % ) ,浅色体相互连接而成网结状构造 ,应变的承载方式主要以 IWL(Interconnected Weak L ayers)形式进行 ,即熔融体表现为弱相而承载大部分的应变。相反地 ,在部分熔融程度较低的区域 (<5 % ) ,浅色体孤立地出现 ,应变的承载方式主要以 L BF(L oad- Bearing Frame-work)形式进行 ,即应变主要由非熔融体的基质来承担。这表明在混合岩形成过程中 ,熔体的出现强烈地制约着应变分解作用。应用 Shaw的岩石粘度模型 ,我们根据浅色体的主要元素地球化学成分计算了浅色体在熔融状态下的粘度。根据流体动力学原理 ,估算了浅色体在不同条件下的迁移距离。计算结果表明 :1和典型花岗岩相比 ,浅色体具有较高的粘度 ,为 10 9~ 10 1 2 相似文献
647.
Jason D. Mann David W. Leverington John Rayburn James T. Teller 《Journal of Paleolimnology》1999,22(1):71-80
During the last retreat of the Laurentide Ice Sheet in North America, many proglacial lakes formed as continental drainage was impounded against the southern and western ice margin. Lake Agassiz was the largest of these lakes. The bathymetry of Lake Agassiz at the Herman and Upper Campbell beach levels – formed at about 11.5–11.0 ka and 9.9–9.5 ka, respectively – was computer modelled in this study by first collecting data for the isostatically-deformed paleowater planes of the two lake levels (derived from isobase lines constructed from beach elevations), and then subtracting these from the modern topography of the former lake floor. Pixels with dimensions of 1/30 × 1/30 of a degree were used in the model. Using these data, the area and volume of the lake were also calculated: at the Herman level these were 152 500 km2 and 13 100 km3 respectively; at the Upper Campbell level these were 350 400 km2 and 38 700 km3. Contour maps showing the paleobathymetry of both periods in the lake's history were also constructed. Determining the paleobathymetry and volume of Lake Agassiz is an important step in understanding the impact that the lake had on its surrounding environment and on the rivers, lakes, and oceans into which it flowed. 相似文献
648.
We reconstructed a chronology of glaciation spanning from the Late Pleistocene through the late Holocene for Fish Lake valley in the north‐eastern Alaska Range using 10Be surface exposure dating and lichenometry. After it attained its maximum late Wisconsin extent, the Fish Lake valley glacier began to retreat ca. 16.5 ka, and then experienced a readvance or standstill at 11.6 ± 0.3 ka. Evidence of the earliest Holocene glacial activity in the valley is a moraine immediately in front of Little Ice Age (LIA) moraines and is dated to 3.3–3.0 ka. A subsequent advance culminated at ca. AD 610–900 and several LIA moraine crests date to AD 1290, 1640, 1860 and 1910. Our results indicate that 10Be dating from high‐elevation sites can be used to help constrain late Holocene glacial histories in Alaska, even when other dating techniques are unavailable. Close agreement between 10Be and lichenometric ages reveal that 10Be ages on late Holocene moraines may be as accurate as other dating methods. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
649.
Using the precision of the mean to estimate suitable sample sizes for monitoring total phosphorus in Australian catchments
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The effect of the sample size on prediction quality is well understood. Recently, studies have assessed this relationship using near‐continuous water quality samples. However, this is rarely possible because of financial constraints, and therefore, many studies have relied on simulation‐based methods utilizing more affordable surrogates. A limitation of simulation‐based methods is the requirement of a good relationship, which is often not present. Therefore, catchment managers require a direct method to estimate the effect of sample size on the mean using historical water quality data. One measure of prediction quality is the precision with which a mean is estimated; this is the focus of this work. By characterizing the effect of sample size on the precision of the mean, it is possible for catchment managers to adjust the sample size in relation to both the cost and the precision. Historical data are often sparse and generally collected using several different sampling schemes, all without inclusion probabilities. This means that an approach is needed to obtain unbiased estimates of the variance of the mean using a model‐based approach. With the use of total phosphorus data from 17 sub‐catchments in southeastern Australia, the ability of a model‐based approach to estimate the effect of sample size on the precision of event and base‐flow mean concentrations. The results showed that for estimating annual base‐flow mean concentration, little gain in precision was achieved above 12 observations per year. Sample sizes greater than 12 samples per event improved event‐based estimates; however, the inclusion of more than 12 samples per event did not greatly reduce the event mean concentration uncertainties. The precision of the base‐flow estimates was most correlated to percentage urban cover, whereas the precision of the event mean estimates was most correlated with catchment size. The method proposed in this work could be readily applied to other water quality variables and other monitoring sites. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
650.
Field study on influence of root characteristics on soil suction distribution in slopes vegetated with Cynodon dactylon and Schefflera heptaphylla
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Vegetation evapotranspiration (ET) induced soil water suction reduces hydraulic conductivity and increases shear strength of slopes. Several field studies have been conducted to investigate suction distribution in vegetated slopes. However, these studies were conducted on natural slopes, which are prone to heterogeneity in vegetation and soil conditions. Moreover, studies quantifying the effect of different vegetation species, root characteristics (root depth and root area index) and transpiration reduction function (Trf) on suction in slopes under natural variation are rare. This study investigated the suction distribution and root characteristics in recompacted slopes vegetated with two different species, i.e. Cynodon dactylon (Bermuda grass) and Schefflera heptaphylla (ivy tree). Bare slope served as a control. Suction distributions during different seasons and rainfall events were monitored. It is found that during the dry season, slope vegetated with young Schefflera heptaphylla seedlings have substantially higher suction within the root zone compared with bare slope and slope vegetated with Cynodon dactylon. This is because Schefflera heptaphylla has a higher root biomass, Trf and ET than Cynodon dactylon. It was also found that suctions within root zones of vegetated slopes and bare slope were completely destroyed under rainfall events corresponding to 2 years and 20 years return period. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献