Extreme precipitation in WRF during the Newcastle East Coast Low of 2007

In the context of regional downscaling, we study the representation of extreme precipitation in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, focusing on a major event that occurred on the 8^th of June 2007 along the coast of eastern Australia (abbreviated “Newy”). This was one of the strongest extra-tropical low-pressure systems off eastern Australia in the last 30 years and was one of several storms comprising a test bed for the WRF ensemble that underpins the regional climate change projections for eastern Australia (New South Wales/Australian Capital Territory Regional Climate Modelling Project, NARCliM). Newy provides an informative case study for examining precipitation extremes as simulated by WRF set up for regional downscaling. Here, simulations from the NARCliM physics ensemble of Newy available at ～10 km grid spacing are used. Extremes and spatio-temporal characteristics are examined using land-based daily and hourly precipitation totals, with a particular focus on hourly accumulations. Of the different physics schemes assessed, the cumulus and the boundary layer schemes cause the largest differences. Although the Betts-Miller-Janjic cumulus scheme produces better rainfall totals over the entire storm, the Kain-Fritsch cumulus scheme promotes higher and more realistic hourly extreme precipitation totals. Analysis indicates the Kain-Fritsch runs are correlated with larger resolved grid-scale vertical moisture fluxes, which are produced through the influence of parameterized convection on the larger-scale circulation and the subsequent convergence and ascent of moisture. Results show that WRF qualitatively reproduces spatial precipitation patterns during the storm, albeit with some errors in timing. This case study indicates that whilst regional climate simulations of an extreme event such as Newy in WRF may be well represented at daily scales irrespective of the physics scheme used, the representation at hourly scales is likely to be physics scheme dependent.     

Estimating carbon sequestration in the piedmont ecoregion of the United States from 1971 to 2010

Human activities have diverse and profound impacts on ecosystem carbon cycles. The Piedmont ecoregion in the eastern United States has undergone significant land use and land cover change in the past few decades. The purpose of this study was to use newly available land use and land cover change data to quantify carbon changes within the ecoregion. Land use and land cover change data (60-m spatial resolution) derived from sequential remotely sensed Landsat imagery were used to generate 960-m resolution land cover change maps for the Piedmont ecoregion. These maps were used in the Integrated Biosphere Simulator (IBIS) to simulate ecosystem carbon stock and flux changes from 1971 to 2010. Results show that land use change, especially urbanization and forest harvest had significant impacts on carbon sources and sinks. From 1971 to 2010, forest ecosystems sequestered 0.25 Mg C ha?1 yr?1, while agricultural ecosystems sequestered 0.03 Mg C ha?1 yr?1. The total ecosystem C stock increased from 2271 Tg C in 1971 to 2402 Tg C in 2010, with an annual average increase of 3.3 Tg C yr?1. Terrestrial lands in the Piedmont ecoregion were estimated to be weak net carbon sink during the study period. The major factors contributing to the carbon sink were forest growth and afforestation; the major factors contributing to terrestrial emissions were human induced land cover change, especially urbanization and forest harvest. An additional amount of carbon continues to be stored in harvested wood products. If this pool were included the carbon sink would be stronger.     

A radical pathway for organic phosphorylation during schreibersite corrosion with implications for the origin of life

Phosphorylated compounds (e.g., DNA, RNA, phospholipids, and many coenzymes) are critical to biochemistry. Thus, their origin is of prime interest to origin of life studies. The corrosion of the meteoritic mineral schreibersite ((Fe, Ni)₃P) may have significantly contributed to the origin of phosphorylated biomolecules. Corrosion of synthetic schreibersite in a variety of solutions was analyzed by nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy, mass spectrometry, and electron paramagnetic resonance spectroscopy. These methods suggest a free-radical reaction pathway for the corrosion of schreibersite to form phosphite radicals () in aqueous solution. These radicals can form activated polyphosphates and can phosphorylate organic compounds such as acetate to form phosphonates and organophosphates (3% total yield). Phosphonates (O₃P-C) are found in the organic P inventory of the carbonaceous meteorite Murchison. While phosphonates are rare in biochemistry, the ubiquity of corroding iron meteorites on the early Earth could have provided a source of organic phosphorous compounds for the origin of life, and may have led to the role of organophosphates as a product of early evolution.     

The alternative of CubeSat-based advanced infrared and microwave sounders for high impact weather forecasting

近年来,小卫星技术的发展给传统气象卫星提供了经济有效的替补方案。本文针对可能出现的传统气象卫星的缺失情形,借助快速的区域观测系统模拟试验,探索了利用小卫星填补空缺的可能性。研究表明,单个小卫星,无论是近红外高光谱还是微波探测仪,都能够对局地强风暴天气的预报有所改进。然而,为了填补传统卫星缺失带来的影响,需要发射三颗甚至更多的小卫星来增加观测的覆盖面,以弥补小卫星精度略低、通道略少的缺陷。     

Securing the climate benefits of stable forests

Stable forests – those not already significantly disturbed nor facing predictable near-future risks of anthropogenic disturbance – may play a large role in the climate solution, due to their carbon sequestration and storage capabilities. Their importance is recognized by the Paris Agreement, but stable forests have received comparatively little attention through existing forest protection mechanisms and finance. Instead, emphasis has been placed on targeting locations where deforestation and forest degradation are happening actively. Yet stopping deforestation and forest degradation does not guarantee durable success, especially outside the geographic scope of targeted efforts. As a result, today’s stable forests may be at risk without additional efforts to secure their long-term conservation.

We synthesize the gaps in existing policy efforts that could address the climate-related benefits derived from stable forests, noting several barriers to action, such as uncertainty around the level of climate services that stable forests provide and difficulties describing the real level of threat posed. We argue that resource and finance allocation for stable forests should be incorporated into countries’ and donors’ comprehensive portfolios aimed at tackling deforestation and forest degradation as well as resulting emissions. A holistic and forward-looking approach will be particularly important, given that success in tackling deforestation and forest degradation where it is currently happening will need to be sustained in the long term.

Key policy insights

• Climate policies, finance, and implementation have tended to focus on areas of recent forest loss and near-term threats of anthropogenic disturbance, resulting in an imbalance of effort that fails to adequately address stable forests.

• In some contexts, policy measuresintended to secure the climate-related benefits of stable forests have competed poorly against more urgent threats. Policymakers and finance mechanisms should view stable forests as a complementary element within a holistic, long-term approach to resource management.

• International mechanisms and national frameworks should be adjusted and resourced to promote the long-term sustainability and permanence of stable forests.

• Beyond additional resources, the climate benefits of stable forests may be best secured by pro-actively designing implementing policies that recognize the rights and interests of stakeholders who are affected by land management decisions.

     

North Arch volcanic fields near Hawaii are evidence favouring the restite‐root hypothesis for the origin of hotspot swells

A pronounced regional bathymetric swell is a common feature of oceanic hotspot volcanism. Recently, the hypothesis of a buoyant sublithospheric swell‐root has been favoured, the root being either a ‘refracted plume’ of hot, buoyant and hence low‐viscosity plume material embedded within surrounding higher viscosity asthenosphere, or a ‘restite‐root’ composed of hot and more viscous residues to hotspot melt‐extraction from the hottest central portion of the upwelling plume. In this article, we present numerical experiments that show that these two scenarios predict different flow and melting patterns whenever the plume passes beneath an obliquely oriented fracture zone where the base of the overriding lithosphere changes in thickness. We find that the restite‐root hypothesis predicts an asymmetric spatial pattern of persistent ‘arch volcanism’ strikingly similar to that found in the Hawaiian chain surrounding the Molokai Fracture Zone. In contrast, the ‘refracted plume’ hypothesis predicts more chaotic patterns quite different from the off‐chain pattern of Hawaiian volcanism.