Long-term global sea surface temperature fluctuations and their possible influence on atmospheric CO2 concentrations

Changes of atmospheric CO₂ concentration since 1958 are shown to be related to sea surface temperature changes. The largest contribution to changes arises from the Pacific equatorial upwelling region, with the Indian Ocean and Atlantic contributing only small fractions to the variance. It is hypothesized that the observed relationship is related to the nutrients that are brought up by upwelling cold water, with photosynthesis contributing to a lowering of the partial pressure of CO₂ in the sea and thus to a greater tendency for a flux from the air to the sea.Possible longer term variations of sea temperature and CO₂ are discussed.     

The economic impact of climate change on Kenyan crop agriculture: A Ricardian approach

This paper measures the economic impact of climate on crops in Kenya. We use cross-sectional data on climate, hydrological, soil and household level data for a sample of 816 households. We estimate a seasonal Ricardian model to assess the impact of climate on net crop revenue per acre. The results show that climate affects crop productivity. There is a non-linear relationship between temperature and revenue on one hand and between precipitation and revenue on the other. Estimated marginal impacts suggest that global warming is harmful for crop productivity. Predictions from global circulation models confirm that global warming will have a substantial impact on net crop revenue in Kenya. The results also show that the temperature component of global warming is much more important than precipitation. Findings call for monitoring of climate change and dissemination of information to farmers to encourage adaptations to climate change. Improved management and conservation of available water resources, water harvesting and recycling of wastewater could generate water for irrigation purposes especially in the arid and semi-arid areas.     

A submillimetre survey of the kinematics of the Perseus molecular cloud – I. Data

We present submillimetre observations of the   J = 3 → 2  rotational transition of ¹²CO, ¹³CO and C¹⁸O across over 600 arcmin² of the Perseus molecular cloud, undertaken with the Heterodyne Array Receiver Programme (HARP), a new array spectrograph on the James Clerk Maxwell Telescope. The data encompass four regions of the cloud, containing the largest clusters of dust continuum condensations: NGC 1333, IC348, L1448 and L1455. A new procedure to remove striping artefacts from the raw HARP data is introduced. We compare the maps to those of the dust continuum emission mapped with the Submillimetre Common-User Bolometer Array (SCUBA; Hatchell et al.) and the positions of starless and protostellar cores (Hatchell et al.). No straightforward correlation is found between the masses of each region derived from the HARP CO and SCUBA data, underlining the care that must be exercised when comparing masses of the same object derived from different tracers. From the ¹³CO/C¹⁸O line ratio the relative abundance of the two species  ([¹³CO]/[C¹⁸O]∼ 7)  and their opacities (typically τ is 0.02–0.22 and 0.15–1.52 for the C¹⁸O and ¹³CO gas, respectively) are calculated. C¹⁸O is optically thin nearly everywhere, increasing in opacity towards star-forming cores but not beyond  τ₁₈∼ 0.9  . Assuming the ¹²CO gas is optically thick, we compute its excitation temperature, T _ex (around 8–30 K), which has little correlation with estimates of the dust temperature.     

Optimal water depth management on river-fed National Wildlife Refuges in a changing climate

The prairie pothole region (PPR) in the north-central United States and south-central Canada constitutes the most important waterfowl breeding area in North America. Projected long-term changes in precipitation and temperature may alter the drivers of waterfowl abundance: wetland availability and emergent vegetation cover. Previous studies have focused on isolated wetland dynamics, but the implications of changing precipitation on managed, river-fed wetlands have not been addressed. Using a structured decision making (SDM) approach, we derived optimal water management actions for 20 years at four river-fed National Wildlife Refuges (NWRs) in North and South Dakota under contrasting increasing/decreasing (+/?0.4 %/year) inflow scenarios derived from empirical trends. Refuge pool depth is manipulated by control structures. Optimal management involves setting control structure heights that have the highest probability of providing a desired mix of waterfowl habitat, given refuge capacities and inflows. We found optimal seasonal control structure heights for each refuge were essentially the same under increasing and decreasing inflow trends of 0.4 %/year over the next 20 years. Results suggest managed pools in the NWRs receive large inflows relative to their capacities. Hence, water availability does not constrain management; pool bathymetry and management tactics can be greater constraints on attaining management objectives than climate-mediated inflow. We present time-dependent optimal seasonal control structure heights for each refuge, which are resilient to the non-stationary precipitation scenarios we examined. Managers can use this information to provide a desired mixture of wildlife habitats, and to re-assess management objectives in reserves where pool bathymetry prevents attaining the currently stated objectives.     

Recrystallization of Magnesian Calcite Overgrowths on Calcite SeedsSuspended in Seawater

The formation and subsequent reactions of magnesiancalcite overgrowths on calcite were investigated bymeans of closed system seeded precipitationexperiments. These experiments demonstrated that(1) thin overgrowths of magnesian calcite are precipitatedon calcite seeds suspended in seawater;(2) the solubilities of the coatings increase outward from theseed crystals as a linear function of the log ofrelative coating thickness;(3) during the period ofthese experiments (up to 5.5 months), the magnesiancalcite coatings continued to increase in thickness,but became less soluble in composition. Thestabilization reaction, referred to asrecrystallization, can be described by the followingequation:Cax Mg(1-x) CO3 + [z + y(x + z)]Ca2++ 2yHCO3- ]= (1 + y)Ca(x + z)Mg(1 - x -z)CO3 + [z + y(x + z - 1)]Mg2++ y CO2 + yH20;]4) recrystallization rate is dependent on solutionsaturation state, with a reaction order of 3.2 forartificial seawater and 4.0 for natural seawater; and(5) by the cessation of the closed system experiments,overgrowth compositions approached that of the stablecalcite (a few mol % MgCO3).Armoring of suspended carbonate particles in thesurface oceans with magnesian calcite overgrowthswould provide an effective barrier to release of theoceanic supersaturation with respect to calcite. Thicknesses of such coatings would be limited by therecrystallization rate of the magnesian calcite. Estimates based on the recrystallization ratesdetermined in this work indicate coatings on the orderof 0.02 µm in thickness could form on particles asthey sink through the mixed layer. According to thesecalculations, the total amount of carbon precipitatedannually in magnesian calcite overgrowths iscomparable to the riverine flux of dissolved carbon tothe oceans. Field observations of severalinvestigators indicate the likely presence ofmagnesian calcite coatings on planktonic particles,and provide evidence for possible recrystallization ofbiogenic magnesian particles in the marineenvironment.     

Geomorphic and sedimentological signature of a two‐phase outburst flood from moraine‐dammed Queen Bess Lake,British Columbia,Canada

On 12 August 1997, the lower part of Diadem Glacier in the southern Coast Mountains of British Columbia fell into Queen Bess Lake and produced a train of large waves. The waves overtopped the broad end moraine at the east end of the lake and ?ooded the valley of the west fork of Nostetuko River. The displacement waves also incised the out?ow channel across the moraine. Stratigraphic and sedimentologic evidence supports the conclusion that the ?ood had two phases, one related to wave overtopping and a second to breach formation. Empirical equations were used to calculate the peak discharge of the ?ood at various points along the west fork of the Nostetuko valley and to describe the attenuation of the ?ood wave. The velocity of the ?ood was also calculated to determine the time it took for the ?ood to reach the main fork of Nostetuko River. The highest peak discharges were achieved in the upper reach of the valley during the displacement phase of the ?ood. Peak discharge declined rapidly just below the moraine dam, with little change thereafter for approximately 7 km. Empirical formulae and boulder measurements indicate a rise in peak discharge in the lower part of the west fork valley. We suggest that ?ow in the upper part of the valley records the passage of two separate ?ood peaks and that the rise in discharge in the lower part of the valley is due to amalgamation of the wave and breach peaks. Hydraulic ponding in con?ned reaches of the valley extended the duration of the ?ood. In addition, erosion of vegetation and sediment in the channel and valley sides may also have exerted an in?uence on the duration and nature of ?ooding. Sediments were deposited both upstream and downstream of channel constrictions and on a large fan extending out into the trunk Nostetuko River valley. This study extends our understanding of the variety and complexity of outburst ?oods from naturally dammed lakes. It also shows that simple empirical and other models for estimating peak discharges of outburst ?oods are likely to yield erroneous results. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Magma plumbing beneath Anak Krakatau volcano, Indonesia: evidence for multiple magma storage regions

Understanding magma plumbing is essential for predicting the behaviour of explosive volcanoes. We investigate magma plumbing at the highly active Anak Krakatau volcano (Indonesia), situated on the rim of the 1883 Krakatau caldera by employing a suite of thermobarometric models. These include clinopyroxene-melt thermobarometry, plagioclase-melt thermobarometry, clinopyroxene composition barometry and olivine-melt thermometry. Petrological studies have previously identified shallow magma storage in the region of 2–8 km beneath Krakatau, while existing seismic evidence points towards mid- to deep-crustal storage zone(s), at 9 and 22 km, respectively. Our results show that clinopyroxene in Anak Krakatau lavas crystallized at a depth of 7–12 km, while plagioclase records both shallow crustal (3–7 km) and sub-Moho (23–28 km) levels of crystallization. These magma storage regions coincide with well-constrained major lithological boundaries in the crust, implying that magma ascent and storage at Anak Krakatau is strongly controlled by crustal properties. A tandem seismic tomography survey independently identified a separate upper crustal (<7 km) and a lower to mid-crustal magma storage region (>7 km). Both petrological and seismic methods are sensitive in detecting magma bodies in the crust, but suffer from various limitations. Combined geophysical and petrological surveys, in turn, offer increased potential for a comprehensive characterization of magma plumbing at active volcanic complexes.