Arctic sea ice and the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO)

Arctic sea ice responds to atmospheric forcing in primarily a top-down manner, whereby near-surface air circulation and temperature govern motion, formation, melting, and accretion. As a result, concentrations of sea ice vary with phases of many of the major modes of atmospheric variability, including the North Atlantic Oscillation, the Arctic Oscillation, and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. However, until this present study, variability of sea ice by phase of the leading mode of atmospheric intraseasonal variability, the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO), which has been found to modify Arctic circulation and temperature, remained largely unstudied. Anomalies in daily change in sea ice concentration were isolated for all phases of the real-time multivariate MJO index during both summer (May–July) and winter (November–January) months. The three principal findings of the current study were as follows. (1) The MJO projects onto the Arctic atmosphere, as evidenced by statistically significant wavy patterns and consistent anomaly sign changes in composites of surface and mid-tropospheric atmospheric fields. (2) The MJO modulates Arctic sea ice in both summer and winter seasons, with the region of greatest variability shifting with the migration of the ice margin poleward (equatorward) during the summer (winter) period. Active regions of coherent ice concentration variability were identified in the Atlantic sector on days when the MJO was in phases 4 and 7 and the Pacific sector on days when the MJO was in phases 2 and 6, all supported by corresponding anomalies in surface wind and temperature. During July, similar variability in sea ice concentration was found in the North Atlantic sector during MJO phases 2 and 6 and Siberian sector during MJO phases 1 and 5, also supported by corresponding anomalies in surface wind. (3) The MJO modulates Arctic sea ice regionally, often resulting in dipole-shaped patterns of variability between anomaly centers. These results provide an important first look at intraseasonal variability of sea ice in the Arctic.     

Abrupt deglaciation on the northeastern Tibetan Plateau: evidence from Lake Qinghai

We inferred the climate history for Central Asia over the past 20,000 years, using sediments from core QH07, taken in the southeastern basin of Lake Qinghai, which lies at the northeastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau. Results from multiple environmental indicators are internally consistent and yield a clear late Pleistocene and Holocene climate record. Carbonate content and total organic carbon (TOC) in Lake Qinghai sediments are interpreted as indicators of the strength of the Asian summer monsoon. Warm and wet intervals, associated with increased monsoon strength, are indicated by increased carbonate and TOC content. During the glacial period (~20,000 to ~14,600 cal year BP), summer monsoon intensity remained low and relatively constant at Lake Qinghai, suggesting cool, dry, and relatively stable climate conditions. The inferred stable, cold, arid environment of the glacial maximum seems to persist through the Younger Dryas time period, and little or no evidence of a warm interval correlative with the Bølling–Allerød is found in the QH07 record. The transition between the late Pleistocene and the Holocene, about 11,500 cal year BP, was abrupt, more so than indicated by speleothems in eastern China. The Holocene (~11,500 cal year BP to present) was a time of enhanced summer monsoon strength and greater variability, indicating relatively wetter but more unstable climatic conditions than those of the late Pleistocene. The warmest, wettest part of the Holocene, marked by increased organic matter and carbonate contents, occurred from ~11,500 to ~9,000 cal year BP, consistent with maximum summer insolation contrast between 30°N and 15°N. A gradual reduction in precipitation (weakened summer monsoon) is inferred from decreased carbonate content through the course of the Holocene. We propose that changes in the contrast of summer insolation between 30°N and 15°N are the primary control on the Asian monsoon system over glacial/interglacial time scales. Secondary influences may include regional and global albedo changes attributable to ice-cover and vegetation shifts and sea level changes (distance from moisture source in Pacific Ocean). The abruptness of the change at the beginning of the Holocene, combined with an increase in variability, suggest a threshold for the arrival of monsoonal rainfall at the northeastern edge of the Tibetan Plateau.     

The scramble for the Waste Lands: Tracking colonial legacies,counterinsurgency and international investment through the lens of land laws in Burma/Myanmar

This article traces the revenue category and legal concept of the Waste Land in Burma/Myanmar from its original application by the British colonial apparatus in the nineteenth century, to its later use in tandem with Burma Army counterinsurgent tactics starting in the 1960s, and finally to the 2012 land laws and current issues in international investment. This adaptation of colonial ideas about territorialization in the context of an ongoing civil war offers a new angle for understanding the relationship between military tactics and the political economy of conflict and counterinsurgent strategies which crucially depended on giving local militias—both government and nongovernment—high degrees of autonomy. The recent government changes, including the more civilian representation in parliament and its shift to engage with Western economies, raise questions regarding the future of the military, as well as local autonomy and the rural peasantry's access to land. As increasing numbers of international investors are poised to enter the Myanmar market, this article will revisit notions of land use and appropriation, and finally the role of the army and its changing relationship with Waste Lands.     

Is Canadian cloudiness increasing?

Abstract

Cloud amount records for the Canadian mid‐latitudes have been analysed in the context of a “warming world” analogue model that compares records of two 20‐year periods. The cloud amounts increase over practically all these regions while temperatures rise. This historical data set has also been extended temporally to permit analysis of high‐latitude cloudiness trends. These are of particular interest in the “fingerprinting” of CO₂‐induced climatic change. Station records from the Canadian Arctic show distinctive increases in total cloud amount in the last forty years especially in the summer season. This result, unlike the historical analogue analysis, seems to be decoupled from temperature changes.     

Short‐term forecasting with a multi‐level spectral primitive equation model part II ‐ Hemispheric prognoses and verification

The spectral global baroclinic primitive equation model described in Part I of this paper has been extensively tested. The model has been run daily from operational analyses for over a year. From this large sample of forecasts, verification statistics have been collected and compared with similar statistics collected from three competitive grid‐point models. The spectral model is also compared with the grid‐point models in a synoptic case study.

A second case study demonstrates the effect of horizontal resolution and physical effects on spectral model forecasts. The results of these experiments demonstrate that the spectral model is highly competitive with other models, in terms of both accuracy and computational efficiency. On 18 February 1976 the spectral model became the operational Canadian large‐scale forecast model.     

Long-term changes in polychaete assemblages of Botany Bay (NSW, Australia) following a dredging event

The long-term effects of marine aggregate dredging on near-shore benthic assemblages are still largely unknown, despite a global increase in demand for, and extraction of, marine aggregates. This study assessed the state of recovery of polychaete assemblages in Botany Bay, temperate NSW, Australia, at sites dredged for aggregate material more than 10 years previously. Sedimentary and faunal samples were collected from impact sites in Botany Bay, and from reference sites in nearby Pittwater estuary. This study was based on, and included data from, a study conducted by the Australian Museum at the same sites in the 2 years following cessation of dredging. Abundance, species richness and evenness of polychaetes, as well as overall polychaete assemblage structure, were compared between localities over time.