Evidence for Holocene environmental change from C/N ratios, and δ13C and δ15N values in Swan Lake sediments, western Sand Hills, Nebraska

Profiles of percent carbon and nitrogen, carbon/nitrogen (C/N) ratios and stable carbon (¹³C), and nitrogen (¹⁵N) isotopic ratios in organic matter from an 11.6 m core were used to reconstruct environments of deposition in the Swan Lake basin during the past 5300 YBP. The upper 6.5 m consisted of gyttja containing variable amounts of reddish brown-colored fine organic matter and calcium carbonate. It was followed by a 0.5 m sandy silt, which was followed by a 3.6 m reduced layer characterized by large quantities of black organic plant remains, sapropel, and then by another sapropel layer consisting mainly of well-sorted sapropelic sand with relatively low organic matter content. The C- and N-contents in the organic matter in the sediment profile ranged from 0.5 to 23% and from 0.02 to 2%, respectively. Carbon content were positively correlated to both N and clay content while carbon content was negatively correlated to sand content. Two major environmental phases in Swan Lake were apparent from large differences in the C and N data of the sediment organic matter. These include the sapropel (marsh) stage that stretched from approximately 5330 to 3930 YBP, and the following gyttja (open water stage). During the sapropel marsh plants identified in a previous pollen study as cattails and sedges proliferated and produced copious amounts of well-preserved organic matter. C/N ratios, ¹³C values, and ¹⁵N values in the sapropel were significantly different from those that characterized organic matter in the gyttja. During the gyttja ¹³C values indicated that deep primary producers have dominated lake biomass. By utilizing bicarbonate as their C-source, the accumulating biomass became relatively enriched ¹³C values. The presence of high sediment CaCO₃ contents indicated more alkaline and deeper water conditions prevailed during the gyttja. Further refinement of the data suggested that each major phase initially contained an identifiable transition stage. During the sapropelic (initial marsh stage) which occurred before 5330 YBP, sand content gradually decreased as organic matter increased. As reflected by high C/N ratios and slightly enriched ¹³C values, these sands appear to have contained sufficient permeability to promote partial mineralization of accumulated organic-N containing compounds. A short initial gyttja transition period from about 3930–3830 YBP occurred in which the sediment silt content was anomalously high relative that measured in the surrounding layers. The silt content suggests that this turbid transition layer can not be completely explained by sediment mixing via bioturbation. The silts appeared to have been associated with the sharp climate change that resulted in higher water-table conditions during the gyttja stage.     

Characterizing the dispersive state of convective boundary layers for applied dispersion modeling

Estimates from semiempirical models that characterize surface heat flux, mixing depth, and profiles of temperature, wind, and turbulence are compared with observations from atmospheric field studies conducted in Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, and Minnesota. Sodar observations are compared with tower measurements at the Colorado site, for wind and turbulence profiles. The median surface heat flux, as calculated using surface-layer flux-profile relationships and an energy budget model, was consistently overestimated by 20 to 80%. Several mixing-depth models were evaluated: (1) integration of the hourly surface heat flux and friction velocity, (2) solving for the time rate of change of profiles of virtual potential temperature, and (3) an interpolation scheme used by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in regulatory dispersion models. For the late afternoon, 80 to 90% of the estimates from the first and third models were within 40% of the observed values. For the morning hours after sunrise, all were less accurate. Temperature estimates from surface-layer flux-profile relationships compared well with observations within the mixed layer, but were too low for the inversion layer aloft. Wind profiles were derived using surface-layer flux-profile relationships, a windprofile power-law based on Pasquill stability category, and sodar measurements. The sodar measurements were superior to both types of model estimates. Turbulence profiles were derived from sodar measurements and from semiempirical similarity relationships based on mixing depth and Obukhov length. The scatter in the comparisons with the sodar observations is twice that seen in the comparisons with empirical profile relationships. Overall, it appears that uncertainty of as low as 20 to 30% in the characterization of the diffusion meteorology is the exception rather than the rule.On assignment from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, U. S. Department of Commerce.Disclaimer: Although the research described in this article has been supported by the United States Environmental Protection Agency, it has not been subjected to Agency review and therefore does not necessarily reflect the views of the Agency and no official endorsement should be inferred. Mention of trade names or commercial products does not constitute endorsement or recommendation for use.     

Unique isoprene oxidation products demonstrate chlorine atom chemistry occurs in the Houston,Texas urban area

As part of the 2000 Texas Air Quality Study (TexAQS), we studied the isoprene oxidation process under ambient conditions to discern the presence of chlorine atom (Cl) chemistry in the Houston, Texas urban area. By measuring chloromethylbutenone (CMBO) and an isomer of chloromethylbutenal (CMBA), we clearly observed sixteen episodes of active Cl chemistry during the 24-day experiment. Estimated median Cl concentration during each of these episodes was between the detection limit of ~10² atoms cm⁻³ and 50 _{- 30} ^{+ 70} ×10⁴ 50_{ - 30}^{ + 70} \times {10^4} atoms cm⁻³. Cl concentration during all the episodes averaged 7.6 _{- 2.0} ^{+ 4.7} ×10⁴ 7.6_{ - 2.0}^{ + 4.7} \times {10^4} atoms cm⁻³ and thus amounted to less than 3% of the OH concentration during the same periods. During the episodes, the fraction of oxidation chemistry initiated by Cl ranged from 3–43% and was strongly dependent on the quantity and type of hydrocarbons present in the atmosphere. Because of its intermittent presence and low concentration, Cl is not a broadly influential oxidant in the Houston, Texas urban area.     

Storm rainfall conditions for floods and debris flows from recently burned areas in southwestern Colorado and southern California

Debris flows generated during rain storms on recently burned areas have destroyed lives and property throughout the Western U.S. Field evidence indicate that unlike landslide-triggered debris flows, these events have no identifiable initiation source and can occur with little or no antecedent moisture. Using rain gage and response data from five fires in Colorado and southern California, we document the rainfall conditions that have triggered post-fire debris flows and develop empirical rainfall intensity–duration thresholds for the occurrence of debris flows and floods following wildfires in these settings. This information can provide guidance for warning systems and planning for emergency response in similar settings.Debris flows were produced from 25 recently burned basins in Colorado in response to 13 short-duration, high-intensity convective storms. Debris flows were triggered after as little as six to 10 min of storm rainfall. About 80% of the storms that generated debris flows lasted less than 3 h, with most of the rain falling in less than 1 h. The storms triggering debris flows ranged in average intensity between 1.0 and 32.0 mm/h, and had recurrence intervals of two years or less. Threshold rainfall conditions for floods and debris flows sufficiently large to pose threats to life and property from recently burned areas in south-central, and southwestern, Colorado are defined by: I = 6.5D^− 0.7 and I = 9.5D^− 0.7, respectively, where I = rainfall intensity (in mm/h) and D = duration (in hours).Debris flows were generated from 68 recently burned areas in southern California in response to long-duration frontal storms. The flows occurred after as little as two hours, and up to 16 h, of low-intensity (2–10 mm/h) rainfall. The storms lasted between 5.5 and 33 h, with average intensities between 1.3 and 20.4 mm/h, and had recurrence intervals of two years or less. Threshold rainfall conditions for life- and property-threatening floods and debris flows during the first winter season following fires in Ventura County, and in the San Bernardino, San Gabriel and San Jacinto Mountains of southern California are defined by I = 12.5D^−0.4, and I = 7.2D^−0.4, respectively. A threshold defined for flood and debris-flow conditions following a year of vegetative recovery and sediment removal for the San Bernardino, San Gabriel and San Jacinto Mountains of I = 14.0D^−0.5 is approximately 25 mm/h higher than that developed for the first year following fires.The thresholds defined here are significantly lower than most identified for unburned settings, perhaps because of the difference between extremely rapid, runoff-dominated processes acting in burned areas and longer-term, infiltration-dominated processes on unburned hillslopes.     

Global carbon budgets and the viability of new fossil fuel projects

Policy-makers of some fossil fuel-endowed countries wish to know if a given fossil fuel supply project is consistent with the global carbon budget that would prevent a 2 °C temperature rise. But while some studies have identified fossil fuel reserves that are inconsistent with the 2 °C carbon budget, they have not shown the effect on fossil fuel production costs and market prices. Focusing on oil, we develop an oil pricing and climate test model to which we apply future carbon prices and oil consumption from several global energy-economy-emissions models that simulate the energy supply and demand effects of the 2 °C carbon budget. Our oil price model includes key oil market attributes, notably upper and lower market share boundaries for different oil producer categories, such as OPEC. Using the distribution of the global model results as an indicator of uncertainty about future carbon prices and oil demand, we estimate the probability that a new investment of a given oil source category would be economically viable under the 2 °C carbon budget. In our case study of Canada’s oil sands, we find a less than 5% probability that oil sands investments, and therefore new oil pipelines, would be economically viable over the next three decades under the 2 °C carbon budget. Our sensitivity analysis finds that if OPEC agreed to reduce its market share to 30% by 2045, a significant reduction from its steady 40–45% of the past 25 years, then the probability of viable oil sands expansion rises to 30%.     

Modeling the history of Lake of the Woods since 11,000 cal yr B.P. using GIS

Because of differential isostatic rebound, many lakes in Canada have continued to change their extent and depth since retreat of the Laurentide Ice Sheet. Using GIS techniques, the changing configuration and bathymetry of Lake of the Woods in Ontario, Manitoba, and Minnesota were reconstructed for 12 points in time, beginning at 11,000 cal yr B.P. (9.6 ¹⁴C ka B.P.), and were also projected 500 years into the future, based on the assumption that Lake of the Woods continued to have a positive hydrological budget throughout the Holocene. This modeling was done by first compiling a bathymetric database and merging that with subaerial data from the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM). This DEM file was then adjusted by: (1) isobase data derived from Lake Agassiz beaches prior to 9000 cal yr B.P. (8.1 ¹⁴C ka B.P.) and (2) modeled isostatic rebound trend analysis after 9000 cal yr B.P. Just after the end of the Lake Agassiz phase of Lake of the Woods, only the northernmost part of the basin contained water. Differential rebound has resulted in increasing water depth. In the first 3000 years of independence from Lake Agassiz, the lake transgressed >50 km to the south, expanding its area from 858 to 2857 km², and more than doubling in volume. Continued differential rebound after 6000 cal yr B.P. (5.2 ¹⁴C ka B.P.) has further expanded the lake, although today it is deepening by only a few cm per century at the southern end. In addition, climate change in the Holocene probably played a role in lake level fluctuations. Based on our calculation of a modern hydrological budget for Lake of the Woods, reducing runoff and precipitation by 65% and increasing evaporation from the lake by 40% would end overflow and cause the level of the lake to fall below the outlets at Kenora. Because this climate change is comparable to that recorded during the mid-Holocene warming across the region, it is likely that the area covered by the lake at this time would have been less than that determined from differential isostatic rebound alone.     

THE NEW CORPORATE LANDSCAPE: AMERICA'S FASTEST GROWING PRIVATE COMPANIES

Analysis of the location of the fastest growing private companies in the United States suggests that a new corporate landscape is emerging. During the 1980s this corporate landscape has increasingly been dominated by companies in the service sector rather than in manufacturing. Sunbelt metropolises, especially in California, are more favored locations for the fast-growth firms than for the traditional Fortune 500 industrial and 500 service corporations. The fast-growth firms are also more likely to locate in suburban areas than the traditional corporations. These service, Sunbelt, and suburban characteristics of the new corporate landscape are interpreted as a consequence of the restructuring of the US economy.     

Correction to: Projection of Iron Ore Production

Natural Resources Research - The original version of this article unfortunately contained an error in Equation 3.