Climate Change Impacts for the Conterminous USA: An Integrated Assessment

Here we simulate dryland agriculture in the United States in order to assess potential future agricultural production under a set of general circulation model (GCM)-based climate change scenarios. The total national production of three major grain crops—corn, soybeans, and winter wheat—and two forage crops—alfalfa and clover hay—is calculated for the actual present day core production area (CPA) of each of these crops. In general, higher global mean temperature (GMT) reduces production and higher atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration ([CO₂]) increases production. Depending on the climatic change scenarios employed overall national production of the crops studied changes by up to plus or minus 25% from present-day levels. Impacts are more significant regionally, with crop production varying by greater than ±50% from baseline levels. Analysis of currently possible production areas (CPPAs) for each crop indicates that the regions most likely to be affected by climate change are those on the margins of the areas in which they are currently grown. Crop yield variability was found to be primarily influenced by local weather and geographic features rather than by large-scale changes in climate patterns and atmospheric composition. Future US agronomic potential will be significantly affected by the changes in climate projected here. The nature of the crop response will depend primarily on to what extent precipitation patterns change and also on the degree of warming experienced.     

Land surface coupling in regional climate simulations of the West African monsoon

Coupling of the Community Land Model (CLM3) to the ICTP Regional Climate Model (RegCM3) substantially improves the simulation of mean climate over West Africa relative to an older version of RegCM3 coupled to the Biosphere Atmosphere Transfer Scheme (BATS). Two 10-year simulations (1992–2001) show that the seasonal timing and magnitude of mean monsoon precipitation more closely match observations when the new land surface scheme is implemented. Specifically, RegCM3–CLM3 improves the timing of the monsoon advance and retreat across the Guinean Coast, and reduces a positive precipitation bias in the Sahel and Northern Africa. As a result, simulated temperatures are higher, thereby reducing the negative temperature bias found in the Guinean Coast and Sahel in RegCM3–BATS. In the RegCM3–BATS simulation, warmer temperatures in northern latitudes and wetter soils near the coast create excessively strong temperature and moist static energy gradients, which shifts the African Easterly Jet further north than observed. In the RegCM3–CLM3 simulation, the migration and position of the African Easterly Jet more closely match reanalysis winds. This improvement is triggered by drier soil conditions in the RegCM3–CLM3 simulation and an increase in evapotranspiration per unit precipitation. These results indicate that atmosphere–land surface coupling has the ability to impact regional-scale circulation and precipitation in regions exhibiting strong hydroclimatic gradients.     

Canonical planetary perturbation equations for velocity-dependent forces,and the Lense-Thirring precession

A form of planetary perturbation theory based on canonical equations of motion, rather than on the use of osculating orbital elements, is developed and applied to several problems of interest. It is proved that, with appropriately selected initial conditions on the orbital elements, the two forms of perturbation theory give rise to identical predictions for the observable coordinates and velocities, while the orbital elements themselves may be strikingly different. Differences between the canonical form of perturbation theory and the classical Lagrange planetary perturbation equations are discussed. The canonical form of perturbation theory in some cases has advantages when the perturbing forces are velocity-dependent, but the two forms of perturbation theory are equivalent if the perturbing forces are dependent only on position and not on velocity. The canonical form of the planetary perturbation equations are derived and applied to the Lense Thirring precession of a test body in a Keplerian orbit around a rotating mass source.     

Dimorphism of Bivalved Arthropod Branchiocaris? Yunnanensis from the Early Cambrian Chengjiang Biota, South China

The bivalved arthropod Branchiocaris? yunnanensis Hou, 1987 is redescribed on the basis of new fossil material from the early Cambrian Chengjiang biota, South China. In total, 81 specimens have been examined. The carapace comprises two identical valves, each valve are sub-circular in outline, ranging from 24 mm to 58 mm in length, and from 15 mm to 46 mm in height. The dorsal margin is straight and bears two short cardinal spines. The valve surface is either smooth or ornamented with polygonal reticular structures, which may result from different preservation conditions. Two morphotypes have been recognized based on the presence or absence of a subdorsal swelling of the valve, which is convex dorsolaterally and extends beyond the dorsal margin when it appears. Statistic and ontogenetic analyses show both morphotypes grow isometrically and have the same growth trajectory. Therefore, the two morphotypes are interpreted as dimorphism within the same species. Our results are helpful for investigating the taxonomy and ontogeny of arthropod fossils and suggest that dimorphism might be fairly common in these early arthropods.     

Putting the principles of the Sustainable Livelihoods Approach into fisheries development policy and practice

The Sustainable Livelihoods Approach (SLA) combines a conceptual framework with a set of operational principles to provide guidance on policy formulation and development practice. The SLA has been widely used in coastal and fisheries development research and has informed the design of development programmes but experience of operationalising it remains largely undocumented. In the Sustainable Fisheries Livelihoods Programme, which involves 25 West African countries, the SLA has helped to align fisheries policy with wider poverty reduction initiatives and to identify means of contributing to poverty reduction that do not directly increase pressure on fully or over-exploited fish resources.     

Sources and sinks of sediment to the Amazon margin: The Amapa coast

Modern and Holocene muddy strata were studied along the shoreline adjacent to the Amazon river mouth using sedimentological, radiochemical, physical, and seismic methods. The present paper is a synthesis of the results, collected during the AmasSeds project, that is used to outline a regional shoreline sediment budget. Erosion of relict Amazon muds in southern Amapa supplies 10⁶ tons yr^–1 to the Amazon advective mud stream. Local rivers are sediment-poor (total suspended discharge ~ 1 × 10⁶ tons yr^–1), but form depositional sandflats on the shoreface downdrift of the river mouths. Mudflat accumulation in northern Amapa sequesters 10⁶–10⁷ tons yr^–1 by tidal-flat aggradation, alongshore mudcape accretion, and sediment trapping by mangroves. The processes temporarily store 1.5 × 10⁸ tons of Amazon mud in January–June.     

Evaluation of mussel immune responses as indicators of contamination in San Francisco Bay

Several immune parameters were evaluated in two species of mussels (Mytilus californianus and M. galloprovincialis/M. trossulus) as bioindicators of contaminant effects. The mussels were deployed in San Francisco Bay Estuary and a control site at Bodega Marine Laboratory. Assays for phagocytosis and phagocytic index (average number of particles engulfed per hemocyte) were conducted with hemocytes in their own hemolymph-the "Serum" method. The responses were compared with contaminant concentrations in those mussels. For both species, the contaminated South Bay Dumbarton Bridge and Redwood Creek sites had elevated phagocytosis relative to the Bodega control site, indicating contaminant stress. The results also showed that M. californianus had higher percentages of phagocytosis (74%) and a higher phagocytic index (4.6 particles per cell) than those of M. galloprovincialis/M. trossulus (60% phagocytosis and 3.5 particles per cell). As there is a difference in immune response to contaminants, it is suggested that future San Francisco Estuary monitoring should be conducted with endemic M. galloprovincialis/M. trossulus rather than with the currently utilized M. californianus, which is not found in the estuary.     

Influence of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation on South Korean streamflow variability

Deciphering the mechanisms through which the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) affects hydrometeorological parameters in the tropics and extratropics is of great interest. We investigate climatic teleconnections between warm or cold phases of ENSO and streamflow patterns over South Korea using an empirical methodology designed to detect regions showing a strong and consistent hydroclimatic signal associated with ENSO. We calculate not only spatial coherence values by monthly streamflow composite formed over 2‐year ENSO cycle and the first harmonic fit to detect candidate regions but also temporal consistency rates by aggregate composite and index time series to determine core regions. As a result, the core regions, namely, the Han river basin and the Nakdong river basin, are detected with a high level of response of ENSO phenomena to streamflow patterns. The ENSO composites for both core regions indicate drier (wetter) conditions in early autumn of the warm (cold) episode years and wetter (drier) conditions from winter to spring of the following year. For both regions, the spatial coherences are over 92% (82%) and the temporal consistencies are 71% (75%) during the El Niño (La Niña) events. In addition, for the core regions identified by composite‐harmonic analysis for both extreme episodes, the results of comparative analyses by using correlation, annual cycle, and Wilcoxon rank sum test indicate that 2 opposite phases‐streamflow relationships have a tendency of sign reversal of the streamflow anomaly. Also, the positive departures during the El Niño years show more coherent and strong responses than the negative anomalies in the La Niña events. In conclusion, South Korea experiences climatic teleconnection between ENSO forcing and midlatitude streamflow patterns.     

Integrated estimates of global terrestrial carbon sequestration

Assessing the contribution of terrestrial carbon sequestration to climate change mitigation requires integration across scientific and disciplinary boundaries. A comprehensive analysis incorporating ecologic, geographic and economic data was used to develop terrestrial carbon sequestration estimates for agricultural soil carbon, reforestation and pasture management. These estimates were applied in the MiniCAM integrated assessment model to evaluate mitigation strategies within policy and technology scenarios aimed at achieving atmospheric greenhouse gas stabilization by 2100. Terrestrial sequestration reaches a peak rate of 0.5–0.7 GtC yr⁻¹ in mid-century with contributions from agricultural soils (0.21 GtC yr⁻¹), reforestation (0.31 GtC yr⁻¹) and pasture (0.15 GtC yr⁻¹). Sequestration rates vary over time and with different technology and policy scenarios. The combined contribution of terrestrial sequestration over the next century ranges from 23 to 41 GtC.     

Feeling Slow Food: Visceral fieldwork and empathetic research relations in the alternative food movement

This paper details the author’s experiments with accessing the visceral realm in research on the food-based social movement, Slow Food (SF). “Visceral” is defined as the bodily realm where feelings, sensations, moods and so on are experienced. Fieldwork methods aimed at participatory co-creation of data through verbal communications in the form of in-depth conversations and group discussions, as well as non-verbal communications in the form of “intentionally designed experiences” and other forms of sensory involvement. Communications centered on understanding how foods and food-based settings elicit feelings and sensations that move and power bodies differently, and specifically how SF guides bodies to be affected by specific foods and environments. The paper details how data were created and recorded, specifically exploring how sensory-based research events were translated to data through the creation of imagined bodily empathies. The paper also discusses the emergence of change-oriented communications that pushed for transformation in SF’s (in)attention to visceral differences, thus demonstrating how visceral research can challenge researchers and participants to critically reflect upon, and perhaps transform, how their own bodies feel (and respond to) the world.