Ground motion selection for simulation‐based seismic hazard and structural reliability assessment

This paper examines four methods by which ground motions can be selected for dynamic seismic response analyses of engineered systems when the underlying seismic hazard is quantified via ground motion simulation rather than empirical ground motion prediction equations. Even with simulation‐based seismic hazard, a ground motion selection process is still required in order to extract a small number of time series from the much larger set developed as part of the hazard calculation. Four specific methods are presented for ground motion selection from simulation‐based seismic hazard analyses, and pros and cons of each are discussed via a simple and reproducible illustrative example. One of the four methods (method 1 ‘direct analysis’) provides a ‘benchmark’ result (i.e., using all simulated ground motions), enabling the consistency of the other three more efficient selection methods to be addressed. Method 2 (‘stratified sampling’) is a relatively simple way to achieve a significant reduction in the number of ground motions required through selecting subsets of ground motions binned based on an intensity measure, IM. Method 3 (‘simple multiple stripes’) has the benefit of being consistent with conventional seismic assessment practice using as‐recorded ground motions, but both methods 2 and 3 are strongly dependent on the efficiency of the conditioning IM to predict the seismic responses of interest. Method 4 (‘generalized conditional intensity measure‐based selection’) is consistent with ‘advanced’ selection methods used for as‐recorded ground motions and selects subsets of ground motions based on multiple IMs, thus overcoming this limitation in methods 2 and 3. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Dynamic response of a tanker moored to an articulated loading platform

An analytical model was developed for the dynamic analysis of an articulated loading platform in an operation condition, while remaining in a head seas position. The environmental excitation considered, resulting from groups of regular waves, included first- and second-order force contributions. The nylon hawser connecting the tanker to the ALP was modeled as a nonlinear spring. The hydrodynamic load on the tower was evaluated using Morison's equation, which was modified to account for the relative motion of the tower and the fluid particles. The hydrodynamic load on the tanker was calculated using linear diffraction theory based on the 2-D Helmholtz equation. The “near field” approach of Pinkster was used to evaluate the drift force.     

Meteorite transport—Revisited

Meteorites are delivered from the asteroid belt by way of chaotic zones (Wisdom 1985a). The dominant sources are believed to be the chaotic zones associated with the ν₆ secular resonance, the 3:1 mean motion resonance, and the 5:2 mean motion resonance. Though the meteorite transport process has been previously studied, those studies have limitations. Here I reassess the meteorite transport process with fewer limitations. Prior studies have not been able to reproduce the afternoon excess (the fact that approximately twice as many meteorites fall in the afternoon as in the morning) and suggested that the afternoon excess is an observational artifact; here it is shown that the afternoon excess is in fact consistent with the transport of meteorites by way of chaotic zones in the asteroid belt. By studying models with and without the inner planets it is found that the inner planets significantly speed up the transport of meteorites.     

Glaciers in Svalbard: mass balance, runoff and freshwater flux

Gain or loss of the freshwater stored in Svalbard glaciers has both global implications for sea level and, on a more local scale, impacts upon the hydrology of rivers and the freshwater flux to fjords. This paper gives an overview of the potential runoff from the Svalbard glaciers. The freshwater flux from basins of different scales is quantified. In small basins (A < 10 km²), the extra runoff due to the negative mass balance of the glaciers is related to the proportion of glacier cover and can at present yield more than 20% higher runoff than if the glaciers were in equilibrium with the present climate. This does not apply generally to the ice masses of Svalbard, which are mostly much closer to being in balance. The total surface runoff from Svalbard glaciers due to melting of snow and ice is roughly 25 ± 5 km³ a⁻¹, which corresponds to a specific runoff of 680 ± 140 mm a⁻¹, only slightly more than the annual snow accumulation. Calving of icebergs from Svalbard glaciers currently contributes significantly to the freshwater flux and is estimated to be 4 ± 1 km³ a⁻¹ or about 110 mm a⁻¹.     

广州花园酒店"白金五星级酒店"结构改造基于性能的可行性研究

广州花园酒店原结构及改造后结构均不满足我国现行规范的抗震构造要求。本文依据基于性能的抗震设计思想,提出结构宏观上的层间位移角目标和微观上的结构构件变形及损伤目标,采用PKPM系列2005年版SATWE和ETABS 9.0中文版进行结构弹性分析,采用PKPM系列EPDA和美国Buffalo大学的IDARC 2D 6.0进行弹塑性静力推覆分析和弹塑性动力时程分析,并采用TNO公司的DIANA8.0进行单榀剪力墙的极限承载力分析,研究结构是否满足设定的整体及结构构件性能目标要求,确保改造后的结构达到"小震不坏、中震可修、大震不倒"的要求。     

New insights on measured and calculated vitrinite reflectance

Measurement of dispersed vitrinite reflectance in organic sediments is one of the few regional data sets used for placing bounds on the thermal history of a sedimentary basin. Reflectance data are important when access to complementary information such as high‐quality seismic data is unavailable to place bounds on subsidence history and in locations where uplift is an important part of the basin history. Attributes which make vitrinite reflectance measurements a useful data set are the relative ease of making the measurement, and the availability of archived well cores and cuttings in state, provincial, and federal facilities. In order to fully utilize vitrinite data for estimating the temperature history in a basin, physically based methods are required to calibrate an equivalent reflectance from a modelled temperature history with measured data. The most common method for calculating a numerical vitrinite reflectance from temperature history is the EASY%R_o method which we show systematically underestimates measured data. We present a new calculated reflectance model and an adjustment to EASY%R_o which makes the correlation between measured vitrinite values and calculated vitrinite values a physical relationship and more useful for constraining thermal models. We then show that calibrating the thermal history to vitrinite on a constant age date surface (e.g., top Cretaceous) instead of calibrating the thermal history in depth removes the heating rate component from the reflectance calculation and makes thermal history calibration easier to understand and more directly related to heat flow. Finally, we use bounds on the vitrinite–temperature relationships on a constant age date surface to show that significant uncertainty exists in the vitrinite data reported in most data sets.     

Wildfire as an increasingly common natural disaster facing Canada: understanding the 2016 Fort McMurray wildfire

Natural Hazards - On May 3, 2016, a wildfire swept into the city of Fort McMurray, Alberta. This natural disaster was significant in both its scale and impact, as the fire prompted a sudden onset...     

Cost Optimization of DNAPL Remediation at Dover Air Force Base Site

This study investigates stochastic optimization of dense nonaqueous phase liquid (DNAPL) remediation design at Dover Air Force Base Area 5 using emulsified vegetable oil (EVO) injection. The Stochastic Cost Optimization Toolkit (SCOToolkit) is used for the study, which couples semianalytical DNAPL source depletion and transport models with parameter estimation, error propagation, and stochastic optimization modules that can consider multiple sources and remediation strategies. Model parameters are calibrated to field data conditions on prior estimates of parameters and their uncertainty. Monte Carlo simulations are then performed to identify optimal remediation decisions that minimize the expected net present value (NPV) cleanup cost while maintaining concentrations at compliance wells under the maximum contaminant level (MCL). The results show that annual operating costs could be reduced by approximately 50% by implementing the identified optimal remediation strategy. We also show that recalibration and reoptimization after 50 years using additional monitoring data could lead to a further 60% reduction in annual operating cost increases the reliability of the proposed remediation actions.