Using semivariogram parameter uncertainty in hydrogeological applications

Geostatistical estimation (kriging) and geostatistical simulation are routinely used in ground water hydrology for optimal spatial interpolation and Monte Carlo risk assessment, respectively. Both techniques are based on a model of spatial variability (semivariogram or covariance) that generally is not known but must be inferred from the experimental data. Where the number of experimental data is small (say, several tens), as is not unusual in ground water hydrology, the model fitted to the empirical semivariogram entails considerable uncertainty. If all the practical results are based on this unique fitted model, the final results will be biased. We propose that, instead of using a unique semivariogram model, the full range of models that are inside a given confidence region should be used, and the weight that each semivariogram model has on the final result should depend on its plausibility. The first task, then, is to evaluate the uncertainty of the model, which can be efficiently done by using maximum likelihood inference. The second task is to use the range of plausible models in applications and to show the effect observed on the final results. This procedure is put forth here with kriging and simulation applications, where the uncertainty in semivariogram parameters is propagated into the final results (e.g., the prediction of ground water head). A case study using log-transmissivity data from the Vega de Granada aquifer, in southern Spain, is given to illustrate the methodology.     

Coastal habitat degradation and green sea turtle diets in Southeastern Brazil

To show the influence of coastal habitat degradation on the availability of food for green turtles (Chelonia mydas), we assessed the dietary preferences and macroalgae community at a feeding area in a highly urbanized region. The area showed low species richness and was classified as degraded. We examined stomach contents of 15 dead stranded turtles (CCL = 44.0 cm (SD 6.7 cm)). The diet was composed primarily of green algae Ulva spp. (83.6%). In contrast, the macroalgae community was dominated by the green alga Caulerpa mexicana. We found a selection for red algae, seagrass and Ulva spp., and avoidance for C. mexicana and brown alga Dictyopteris delicatula. The low diversity of available food items, possibly a result of environmental degradation, likely contributed to the low dietary diversity. The nutritional implications of this restricted diet are unclear.     

Assessment of the effects of a marine urban outfall discharge on caged mussels using chemical and biomarker analysis

To assess the presence of endocrine disruptors in treated marine outfall discharges and their possible effects, mussels (Mytilus galloprovincialis) were caged in the environmental mixing zone of the outfall of the Santander sanitation system and in one control area. After 30, 60 and 90 days, samples were collected to perform chemical analyses (metals, anionic surfactants, alkylphenols, bisphenol A, phthalates and estrogenic hormones), biomarkers of general stress (lysosomal membrane stability-LMS, histopathology) and biomarkers of endocrine disruption (vitellogenin-like proteins and gonad index). There were no significant differences between outfall and control sites on contaminant levels, except for 4-tert-octylphenol which was higher in the outfall site. Bacteriological counts were higher in the outfall area. No relevant differences in biomarkers were detected between treated and control mussels. A significant reduction in LMS occurred in both groups after 90 days caging, indicating a stress situation possibly related to caging or to post-spawning reproductive state.     

基于RS和GIS的青藏高原草地生态系统土壤水分保持功能及其经济价值评估——以生长季为例

根据生态系统服务功能理论,利用RS和G IS技术,以土壤含水量为基础因子,对青藏高原区草地生态系统的土壤水分保持功能及其价值的动态变化过程进行有效评价,以直接的货币形式反映出青藏高原主要草地类型的土壤水分保持功能的大小。通过计算和分析发现:(1)由于草地类型分布面积、单位面积保持量的影响,各种类型草地提供的土壤水分保持功能及其价值贡献率有较大差异,按照大小依次为:高寒草原类、高寒草甸类,高寒荒漠类、高寒草甸草原类和温性山地草甸类;(2)草地对土壤水分保持量及其价值呈现出较强的阶段性变化过程;(3)由于各种草地类型所处地理区域不同、草地本身各种自然特点和整体生态功能的不同,青藏高原草地生态系统提供的土壤水分保持功能及其经济价值呈现出明显的地域分布规律:自西北至东南逐渐降低。应该说,由于青藏高原地域、地理和独特气候等原因所致,本文计算得出的青藏高原草地生态系统土壤水分保持功能及其价值的具体数值不一定十分准确,但是能在一定程度上反映出土壤水分保持功能的强大及其在生长季中随时间变化的动态过程和基本规律(这种规律性结论与前人研究结论一致),这是一种在区域尺度上揭示草地生态系统土壤水分保持功能及其价值动态变化过程的方法尝试,这也是对动态评估生态服务功能的一种有益尝试。     

Effects of prolonged exposure to 4-tert-octylphenol on toxicity and indices of oestrogenic exposure in the sand goby (Pomatoschistus minutus, Pallas)

Alkylphenolic compounds are present in estuarine and marine environments. They are moderately bioaccumulative, and oestrogenic to fish following three week, in vivo, exposures. The effects of prolonged exposure are, as yet, unclear. Sand goby (Pomatoschistus minutus) were exposed to measured concentrations of 4-tert-octylphenol (OP) in a 28-day, dose-ranging study, and a six month temporal response study. Following 28-days exposure to measured 31+/-6 or 101+/-47 microg l(-1) OP (mean+/-SD), immature male sand goby showed elevated vitellogenin (VTG) mRNA expression. Plasma alkali-labile phosphate concentrations were elevated in both sexes and were higher in females than males. Although measured OP concentrations were variable, they were significantly different for each treatment and a range of concentration-dependent effects were observed. The LC(50) for chronic OP exposure (8 weeks) was 29+/-6 microg l(-1), and both sexes demonstrated concentration and duration dependent increases in VTG mRNA expression. Exposure to 28+/-20 microg l(-1) OP (median+/-95% CI) for 6 months inhibited development of male nuptial colouration and sperm duct glands. These findings are discussed in relation to environmental concentrations of alkylphenols and ecological concerns.     

Long-term changes in the type,but not amount,of ingested plastic particles in short-tailed shearwaters in the southeastern Bering Sea

We report the current (1997-1999, 2001) incidence and amount of ingested plastic in short-tailed shearwaters (Puffinus tenuirostris) in the southeastern Bering Sea and compare our results with plastic reported in shearwaters during 1970-1978. We also examine correlations between plastic loads and shearwater body mass. We found that 84% (N = 330) of shearwaters sampled in 1997-1999 and 2001 contained plastic. The incidence and amount of ingested plastic have not significantly changed since the 1970s. In contrast, the predominant type of plastic has changed over time, from industrial plastic to user plastic. S,asonal patterns in the incidence and amount of ingested plastic also changed from peak levels during early and late summer in the 1970s to mid summer in the late 1990s and 2001. We suggest that the availability of neuston plastic to seabirds in the Bering Sea has undergone a shift in composition since the 1970s. Shearwater body mass appears little if at all impaired by plastic, at least at present levels of consumption.     

Effects of water use on arsenic release to well water in a confined aquifer

Field-based experiments were designed to investigate the release of naturally occurring, low to moderate (< 50 microg/L) arsenic concentrations to well water in a confined sandstone aquifer in northeastern Wisconsin. Geologic, geochemical, and hydrogeologic data collected from a 115 m2 site demonstrate that arsenic concentrations in ground water are heterogeneous at the scale of the field site, and that the distribution of arsenic in ground water correlates to solid-phase arsenic in aquifer materials. Arsenic concentrations in a test well varied from 1.8 to 22 microg/L during experiments conducted under no, low, and high pumping rates. The quality of ground water consumed from wells under typical domestic water use patterns differs from that of ground water in the aquifer because of reactions that occur within the well. Redox conditions in the well can change rapidly in response to ground water withdrawals. The well borehole is an environment conducive to microbiological growth, and biogeochemical reactions also affect borehole chemistry. While oxidation of sulfide minerals appears to release arsenic to ground water in zones within the aquifer, reduction of arsenic-bearing iron (hydr)oxides is a likely mechanism of arsenic release to water having a long residence time in the well borehole.     

The dust distribution within the inner coma of comet P/Halley 1982i: encounter by Giotto's impact detectors

Analysis of the data from Giotto's Dust Impact Detection System experiment (DIDSY) is presented. These data represent measurement of the size of dust grains incident on the Giotto dust shield along its trajectory through the coma of comet P/Halley on 1986 March 13/14. First detection occurred at some 287000 km distance from the nucleus on the inbound leg; the majority of the DIDSY subsystems remained operational after closest approach (604 km) yielding the last detection at about 202000 km from the nucleus. In order to improve the data coverage (and especially for the smallest grains, to approximately 10(-19) kg particle mass), data from the PIA instrument has been combined with DIDSY data. Flux profiles are presented for the various mass channels showing, to a first approximation, a 1/R2 flux dependence, where R is the distance of the detection point from the cometary nucleus, although significant differences are noted. Deviations from this dependence are observed, particularly close to the nucleus. From the flux profiles, mass and geometrical area distributions for the dust grains are derived for the trajectory through the coma. Groundbased CCD imaging of the dust continuum in the inner coma at the time of encounter is also used to derive the area of grains intercepted by Giotto. The results are consistent with the area functions derived by Giotto data and the low albedo of the grains deduced from infrared emission. For the close encounter period (-5 min to +5 min), the cumulative mass distribution function has been investigated, initially in 20 second periods; there is strong evidence from the data for a steepening of the index of the mass distribution for masses greater than 10(-13) kg during passage through dust jets which is not within the error limits of statistical uncertainty. The fluences for dust grains along the entire trajectory is calculated; it is found that extrapolation of the spectrum determined at intermediate masses (cumulative mass index alpha = 0.85) is not able to account for the spacecraft deceleration as observed by the Giotto Radio Science Experiment and by ESOC tracking operations. Data at large masses (>10(-8) kg) recently analysed from the DIDSY data set show clear evidence of a decrease in the mass distribution index at these masses within the coma, and it is shown that such a value of the mass index can provide sufficient mass for consistency with the observed deceleration. The total particulate mass output from the nucleus of comet P/Halley at the time of encounter would be dependent on the maximum mass emitted if this change in slope observed in the coma were also applicable to the emission from the nucleus; this matter is discussed in the text. The flux time profiles have been converted through a simple approach to modeling of the particle trajectories to yield an indication of nucleus surface activity. There is indication of an enhancement in flux at t approximately -29 s corresponding to crossing of the dawn terminator, but the flux detected prior to crossing of the dawn terminator is shown to be higher than predicted by simple modelling. Further enhancements corresponding to jet activity are detected around +190 s and +270 s.