A Road to Conflict: Stakeholder’s and Social Network Analysis of the Media Portrayals of a Social-Environmental Conflict in Bolivia

Society’s understanding of a conflict is mediated by information provided in mass media, for which researchers stress the importance of analyzing media portrays of stakeholders in a conflict. We analyze information from the Bolivian press regarding the construction of a road crossing the Isiboro-Sécure Indigenous Territory and National Park (TIPNIS). Using stakeholder’s and social network analyses, we explore stakeholder’s positions and alliances as represented in the media and contrast it with previous scholarly work. We found that some actors cited as central in scholar analyses of the conflict are largely absent in the media (e.g., private investors, conservationist sector) and that the media tend to present stakeholders as having more homogeneous positions than the academic literature does while also neglecting some important alliances in their account. The media also suggests that Indigenous communities are forging stronger alliances with urban sectors and civil society, alliances not stressed by researchers.     

Subsidence and thermal history of an inverted Late Jurassic‐Early Cretaceous extensional basin (Cameros,North‐central Spain) affected by very low‐ to low‐grade metamorphism

The Cameros Basin (North Spain) is a Late Jurassic‐Early Cretaceous extensional basin, which was inverted during the Cenozoic. It underwent a remarkable thermal evolution, as indicated by the record of anomalous high temperatures in its deposits. In this study, the subsidence and thermal history of the basin is reconstructed, using subsidence analysis and 2D thermal modelling. Tectonic subsidence curves provide evidence of the occurrence of two rapid subsidence phases during the syn‐extensional stage. In the first phase (Tithonian‐Early Berriasian), the largest accommodation space was formed in the central sector of the basin, whereas in the second (Early Barremian‐Early Albian), it was formed in the northern sector. These rapid subsidence phases could correspond to relevant tectonic events affecting the Iberian Plate at that time. By distinguishing between the initial and thermal subsidence and defining their relative magnitudes, Royden's (1986) method was used to estimate the heat flow at the end of the extensional stage. A maximum heat flow of 60–65 mW/m² is estimated, implying only a minor thermal disturbance associated with extension. In contrast with these data, very high vitrinite reflectance, anomalously distributed in some case with respect to the typical depth‐vitrinite reflectance relation, was measured in the central‐northern sector of the basin. Burial and thermal data are used to construct a 2D thermal basin model, to elucidate the role of the processes involved in sediment heating. Calibration of the thermal model with the vitrinite reflectance (%Ro) and fluid inclusion (FI) data indicates that in the central and northern sectors of the basin, an extra heat source, other than a typical rift, is required to explain the observed thermal anomalies. The distribution of the %Ro and FI values in these sectors suggests that the high temperatures and their distribution are related to the circulation of hot fluids. Hot fluids were attributed to the hydrothermal metamorphic events affecting the area during the early post‐extensional and inversion stages of the basin.     

Buruanga peninsula and Antique Range: Two contrasting terranes in Northwest Panay,Philippines featuring an arc–continent collision zone

Alternating chert–clastic sequences juxtaposed with limestone blocks, which are units typical of accretionary complexes, constitute the Buruanga peninsula. New lithostratigraphic units are proposed in this study: the Unidos Formation (Jurassic chert sequence), the Saboncogon Formation (Jurassic siliceous mudstone–terrigenous mudstone and quartz‐rich sandstone), the Gibon Formation (Jurassic(?) bedded pelagic limestone), the Libertad Metamorphics (Jurassic–Cretaceous slate, phyllite, and schist) and the Buruanga Formation (Pliocene–Pleistocene reefal limestone). The first three sedimentary sequences in the Buruanga peninsula show close affinity with the ocean plate stratigraphy of the North Palawan terrane in Busuanga Island: Lower–Middle Jurassic chert sequences overlain by Middle–Upper Jurassic clastics, juxtaposed with pelagic limestone. Moreover, the JR5–JR6 (Callovian to Oxfordian) siliceous mudstone of the Saboncogon Formation in the Buruanga peninsula correlates with the JR5–JR6 siliceous mudstone of the Guinlo Formation in the Middle Busuanga Belt. These findings suggest that the Buruanga peninsula may be part of the North Palawan terrane. The rocks of the Buruanga peninsula completely differ from the Middle Miocene basaltic to andesitic pyroclastic and lava flow deposits with reefal limestone and arkosic sandstone of the Antique Range. Thus, the previously suggested boundary between the Palawan microcontinental block and the Philippine Mobile Belt in the central Philippines, which is the suture zone between the Buruanga peninsula and the Antique Range, is confirmed. This boundary is similarly considered as the collision zone between them.     

Co-Phase Analysis of Atmospheric Wave Data

Summary Co-phase is a statistic designed for the detection and parameter estimation of signals by detector arrays. Ionospheric motions detected by an array of four phase-path sounders following a large earthquake are found by the co-phase technique to have a phase velocity equal to that of seismic Rayleigh waves of the same period, and to arrive from the direction of the epicentre. The calculation of co-phase for an 80-min sample of data from an 8-element array of microbarographs detects the presence of a signal from a high energy event despite a signal-to-noise ratio of less than unity. Co-phase analysis of acoustic signals generated by the Saturn-Apollo rocket launches indicates that these signals originate at ionospheric heights and propagate in a waveguide between a soundspeed maximum and a steep density gradient in the mesosphere.     

Analysis of aquifer vulnerability and water quality using SINTACS and geographic weighted regression

Aquifer vulnerability and water quality were assessed in the Central Valleys of Oaxaca (Mexico) using the SINTACS method, based on a geographic information system. SINTACS layers were prepared using data such as climate (rainfall and temperature), water table, hydraulic conductivity, geology, soil type and topographic model. Maps for water quality index (WQI), contamination index and pollution sources index (PSI) were also obtained by this work. Groundwater quality in the Central Valleys may be affected by two factors, those with an anthropogenic origin and those with natural origin. High vulnerability values are located in the valleys of the basin, where granular sediments are exposed. Low vulnerability values are distributed in the basin??s ranges, where metamorphic rocks are found. Given that many of the zones with the highest groundwater vulnerability values correspond to zones with the greatest PSI values, there is great risk of groundwater contamination for the area of study because external (indicated by PSI) and internal (indicated by SINTACS) factors that cause pollution can be frequently observed in the same place. Geographic weighted regression (GWR) is used to test the dependency between WQI as dependent variable and SINTACS, PSI, Urban localities, Agriculture, Pastures and Rivers as predictors. The results indicate the non-stationary behavior of the dependent variable with respect to the predictors. While the obtained GWR models used to model WQI cannot be used in practical situations to predict the behavior of said variable, they can be used to estimate the degree to which the predictors influence the variable of interest.     

Petrogenetic links between lepidolite-subtype aplite-pegmatite,aplite veins and associated granites at Segura (central Portugal)

In the Segura area, Variscan S-type granites, aplite veins and lepidolite-subtype granitic aplite-pegmatite veins intruded the Cambrian schist-metagraywacke complex. The granites are syn D3. Aplite veins also intruded the granites. Two-mica granite and muscovite granite have similar ages of 311.0 ± 0.5 Ma and 312.9 ± 2.0 Ma but are not genetically related, as indicated by their geochemical characteristics and (⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr)₃₁₁ values. They correspond to distinct pulses of magma derived by partial melting of heterogeneous metapelitic rocks. Major and trace elements suggest fractionation trends for: (a) muscovite granite and aplite veins; (b) two-mica granite and lepidolite-subtype aplite-pegmatite veins, but with a gap in most of these trends. Least square analysis for major elements, and modeling of trace elements, indicate that the aplite veins were derived from the muscovite granite magma by fractional crystallization of quartz, plagioclase, K-feldspar and ilmenite. This is supported by the similar (⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr)₃₁₁ and δ¹⁸O values and the behavior of P₂O₅ in K-feldspar and albite. The decrease in (⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr)₃₁₁ and strong increase (1.6‰) in δ¹⁸O from two-mica granite to lepidolite-subtype aplite-pegmatite veins, and the behaviors of Ca, Mn and F of hydroxylapatite indicate that these veins are not related to the two-mica granite.     

Quaternary palaeoecology and nature conservation: a general review with examples from the neotropics

Palaeoecology, as an ecological discipline, is able to provide relevant inputs for conservation science and ecosystem management, especially for issues involving long-term processes, such as ecological succession, migration, adaptation, microevolution, and extinction. This use of palaeoecology has been noted for several decades, and it has become widely accepted, especially in the frame of ongoing and near-future global warming and its potential biotic consequences. Selected palaeoecological insights of interest for conservation include the following: 1) species respond in an individualistic manner to environmental changes that lead to changes in community composition, suggesting that future ecosystems would have no modern analogues; 2) in the short-term, acclimation is more likely a response of species that are expected to persist in the face of global warming, but the possibility of evolutionary change linked to the existence of pre-adapted genomes cannot be dismissed; 3) species unable to acclimate or adapt to new conditions should migrate or become extinct, which has been observed in past records; 4) current extinction estimates for the near-future should be revised in light of palaeoecological information, which shows that spatial reorganisations and persistence in suitable microrefugia have been more common than extinction during the Quaternary; 5) biotic responses to environmental changes do not necessarily follow the rules of equilibrium dynamics but depend on complex and non-linear processes that lead to unexpected “surprises”, which are favoured by the occurrence of thresholds and amplifying positive feedbacks; 6) threshold responses can cause the movement of ecosystems among several potentially stable states depending on their resilience, or the persistence of transient states; 7) species and their communities have responded to environmental changes in a heterogeneous fashion according to the local and regional features, which is crucial for present and future management policies; 8) the global warming that occurred at the end of the Younger Drays cold reversal (ca 13.0 to 11.5 cal kyr BP) took place at similar rates and magnitudes compared to the global warming projected for the 21st century, thus becoming a powerful past analogue for prediction modelling; 9) environmental changes have acted upon ecosystems in an indirect way by modifying human behaviour and activities that, in turn, have had the potential of changing the environment and enhancing the disturbance effects by synergistic processes involving positive feedbacks; 10) the collapse of past civilisations under climate stress has been chiefly the result of inadequate management procedures and weaknesses in social organisation, which would be a warning for the present uncontrolled growth of human population, the consequent overexploitation of natural resources, and the continuous increase of greenhouse gas emissions; 11) the impact of fire as a decisive ecological agent has increased since the rise of humans, especially during the last millennia, but anthropic fires were not dominant over natural fires until the 19th century; 12) fire has been an essential element in the development and ecological dynamics of many ecosystems, and it has significantly affected the worldwide biome distribution; 13) climate–fire–human synergies that amplify the effects of climate, or fire alone, have been important in the shaping of modern landscapes. These general paleoecological observations and others that have emerged from case studies of particular problems can improve the preservation of biodiversity and ecosystem functions. Nature conservation requires the full consideration of palaeoecological knowledge in an ecological context, along with the synergistic cooperation of palaeoecologists with neoecologists, anthropologists, and conservation scientists.     

Trace elements contamination of agricultural soils affected by sulphide exploitation (Iberian Pyrite Belt,Sw Spain)

Agricultural soils of the Riotinto mining area (Iberian Pyrite Belt) have been studied to assess the degree of pollution by trace elements as a consequence of the extraction and treatment of sulphides. Fifteen soil samples were collected and analysed by ICP-OES and INAA for 51 elements. Chemical analyses showed an As–Cu–Pb–Zn association related with the mineralisation of the Iberian Pyrite Belt. Concentrations were 19–994 mg kg⁻¹ for As, 41–4,890 mg kg⁻¹ for Pb, 95–897 mg kg⁻¹ for Zn and of 27–1,160 mg kg⁻¹ for Cu. Most of the samples displayed concentrations of these elements higher than the 90th percentile of the corresponding geological dominium, which suggests an anthropogenic input besides the bedrock influence. Samples collected from sediments were more contaminated than leptosols because they were polluted by leachates or by mining spills coming from the waste rock piles. The weathering of the bedrock is responsible for high concentrations in Co, Cr and Ni, but an anthropogenic input, such as wind-blown dust, seems to be indicative of the high content of As, Cu, Pb and Zn in leptosols. The metal partitioning patterns show that most trace elements are associated with Fe amorphous oxy-hydroxides, or take part of the residual fraction. According to the results obtained, the following mobility sequence is proposed for major and minor elements: Mn, Pb, Cd, > Zn, Cu > Ni > As > Fe > Cr. The high mobility of Pb, Cu and Zn involve an environmental risk in this area, even in soils where the concentrations are not so high.     

Extension of observed flood series by combining a distributed hydro-meteorological model and a copula-based model

Long flood series are required to accurately estimate flood quantiles associated with high return periods, in order to design and assess the risk in hydraulic structures such as dams. However, observed flood series are commonly short. Flood series can be extended through hydro-meteorological modelling, yet the computational effort can be very demanding in case of a distributed model with a short time step is considered to obtain an accurate flood hydrograph characterisation. Statistical models can also be used, where the copula approach is spreading for performing multivariate flood frequency analyses. Nevertheless, the selection of the copula to characterise the dependence structure of short data series involves a large uncertainty. In the present study, a methodology to extend flood series by combining both approaches is introduced. First, the minimum number of flood hydrographs required to be simulated by a spatially distributed hydro-meteorological model is identified in terms of the uncertainty of quantile estimates obtained by both copula and marginal distributions. Second, a large synthetic sample is generated by a bivariate copula-based model, reducing the computation time required by the hydro-meteorological model. The hydro-meteorological modelling chain consists of the RainSim stochastic rainfall generator and the Real-time Interactive Basin Simulator (RIBS) rainfall-runoff model. The proposed procedure is applied to a case study in Spain. As a result, a large synthetic sample of peak-volume pairs is stochastically generated, keeping the statistical properties of the simulated series generated by the hydro-meteorological model. This method reduces the computation time consumed. The extended sample, consisting of the joint simulated and synthetic sample, can be used for improving flood risk assessment studies.     

Development of FLEMOcs – a new model for the estimation of flood losses in the commercial sector

Abstract

The estimation of flood damage is an important component for risk-oriented flood design, risk mapping, financial appraisals and comparative risk analyses. However, research on flood-loss modelling, especially in the commercial sector, has not gained much attention so far. Therefore, extensive data about flood losses were collected for affected companies via telephone surveys after the floods of 2002, 2005 and 2006 in Germany. Potential loss determining factors were analysed. The new Flood Loss Estimation MOdel for the commercial sector (FLEMOcs) was developed on the basis of 642 loss cases. Losses are estimated depending on water depth, sector and company size as well as precaution and contamination. The model can be applied to the micro-scale, i.e. to single production sites as well as to the meso-scale, i.e. land-use units, thus enabling its countrywide application.

Citation Kreibich, H., Seifert, I., Merz, B. & Thieken, A. H. (2010) Development of FLEMOcs – a new model for the estimation of flood losses in the commercial sector. Hydrol. Sci. J. 55(8), 1302–1314.