Stochastic methods for the prediction of strata behaviour

Summary A two-dimensional finite difference computer program, with the facility to represent stratified material by means of a mesh of mass points with different material properties in each square of the mesh, is adapted to run on a mesh whose material properties are selected stochastically from a specified distribution. The program uses an iterative method to solve the equations of equilibrium, giving estimates of displacements and stresses.Lattices of normally distributed (zero mean, unit variance) random values are produced: lattices of statistically independent values and lattices whose values are spatially correlated, to give the effect of gradual variations resulting in regions of positive values and regions of negative values.These lattices are used to generate the material properties: Young's modulus, Poisson's ratio and density. Each property has a specified mean and standard deviation for each material in the model, and the precise values for each mass point are calculated from the relevant lattices.A simple model with a square opening is used to investigate the effect of this stochastic generation of material properties, by comparison of stresses and displacements near the opening for runs of the program with (1) deterministic and (2) stochastic properties.Similar lattices of random values are used to introduce a stochastic element in the criterion for failure of materials. This is applied to a more realistic simulation of a mining situation, where Mohr's Criterion is used, with a stochastic component, to determine whether failure has occurred at each point of the mesh.     

Patterns of Chemical Changes During Environmental Alteration of Hydrocarbon Fuels

This paper discusses major environmental alteration processes and describes a set of chemical tests that have been developed to monitor compositional changes in hydrocarbon fuels released into the environment. The methods examine various homologous series of hydrocarbons including straight chain (paraffins or n-alkanes), branched chain (isoparaffins or isoprenoids), alicyclic (naphthenes or alkylated cyclohexanes), polycyclic (steranes and terpanes), and aromatic structures (benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene. xylenes, alkylated benzenes, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, and aromatic steranes). Each one of these groups of hydrocarbons has a different tolerance to environmental alteration by evaporation, dissolution (water washing), and biodegradation. When used as an analytical system on environmental samples, the data obtained provide information on fuel type recognition patterns and on degradation levels of the various fuels, allowing for an estimate of residence time.     

Submarine Groundwater Discharge Estimates Using Radium Isotopes and Related Nutrient Inputs into Tauranga Harbour (New Zealand)

Land-based pollutants such as fertilizers and wastewater can infiltrate into aquifers and discharge into surrounding coastal water bodies as submarine groundwater discharge (SGD). Oceanic islands, with a large coast length to land area ratio, may be hot spots of SGD into the global ocean. Although SGD may be a major pathway of dissolved nutrients, carbon and metals to coastal waters, studies have been limited due to the difficulties in measuring this often diffuse process. This study used radium isotopes (²²³Ra, ²²⁴Ra, ²²⁶Ra) to investigate SGD and the associated fluxes of nutrients into Tauranga Harbour, New Zealand. We calculated the apparent water mass ages of the harbour to be between ~4.1 and 7.8 days, which was similar to a previous numerical model of ~2–8 days. A ²²⁶Ra mass balance was constructed to quantify SGD fluxes at the harbour scale. A minimum SGD flux rate of 0.53 cm day^?1 was calculated by using the maximum groundwater end-member value from 22 sample sites. However, using the geometric mean from these samples as a representative end-member, a final value of 2.83 cm day^?1 or a flux of 3.09 × 10⁶ m³ day^?1 was calculated. These values were between ~1 and 2.8 times greater than all the major river and creeks discharging into the harbour during the sampling period. Due to the higher observed nutrient concentrations in groundwater, the SGD-derived dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN), dissolved organic nitrogen (DON) and total dissolved phosphorus (TDP) fluxes were calculated to be 1.07, 0.87 and 0.05 mmol m² day^?1, respectively. These SGD inputs were ~5 times (for nitrogen) and ~8 times (for phosphorus) greater than the input from surrounding rivers and streams. The average N:P ratio in groundwater samples was 36:1 (which was greatly in excess of the Redfield ratio of 16). The harbour water had a N:P ratio of ~17:1. A positive relationship between radium isotopes and N:P ratios in the harbour further supported the hypothesis that SGD can have major implications for primary production, including recurrent algal bloom events which occur in the harbour. We suggest SGD as a major driver of nutrient dynamics in Tauranga Harbour and potentially other similar coastal lagoon systems and estuaries on oceanic islands.     

Comment on "Caution Against Interpreting Gasoline Release Dates Based on BTEX Ratios in Ground Water," by Pedro J.J. Alvarez, Richard C. Heathcote, and Susan E. Powers, Fall 1998 Ground Water Monitoring & Remediation, v. 18, no. 4: 69-76.

"Our experience shows that BTEX ratios, when used cautiously, often provide valuable information on the age of gasoline fuel release."     

Quantifying the EEJ current with ground-based ionosonde inferred vertical E × B drifts in the morning hours over Ilorin,West Africa

The relationship between the ground-based inferred vertical E × B drifts, Vz, and the magnetic equatorial electrojet current during the year of solar minima was presented. Both the diurnal and seasonal Vz variations are positively directed during the daytime and negative at nighttime. The evening time pre-reversal enhancement occurs around 19:00 LT. The fairly strong linear relationship between the electrojet current strength and Vz exhibited higher correlations during the daytime (06:00–16:00 LT). The maximum morning time proxy parameter described by E = [d (ΔH _ILR)/dt]_max in the morning hours, indicating the east-west electric field in the EEJ, corresponds reasonably well with the E × B drift and, hence, can be used as a proxy parameter for representing Vz in the morning hours. The daytime EEJ magnitude seasonal changes are connected with a change in conductivity emerging from the action of turbulence and divergence of momentum flux. These waves above the dynamo region are suggested to lead to partial counter electrojet during the equinoctial months.     

Science of Nowcasting Olympic Weather for Vancouver 2010 (SNOW-V10): a World Weather Research Programme Project

A World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) project entitled the Science of Nowcasting Olympic Weather for Vancouver 2010 (SNOW-V10) was developed to be associated with the Vancouver 2010 Olympic and Paralympic Winter Games conducted between 12 February and 21 March 2010. The SNOW-V10 international team augmented the instrumentation associated with the Winter Games and several new numerical weather forecasting and nowcasting models were added. Both the additional observational and model data were available to the forecasters in real time. This was an excellent opportunity to demonstrate existing capability in nowcasting and to develop better techniques for short term (0–6 h) nowcasts of winter weather in complex terrain. Better techniques to forecast visibility, low cloud, wind gusts, precipitation rate and type were evaluated. The weather during the games was exceptionally variable with many periods of low visibility, low ceilings and precipitation in the form of both snow and rain. The data collected should improve our understanding of many physical phenomena such as the diabatic effects due to melting snow, wind flow around and over terrain, diurnal flow reversal in valleys associated with daytime heating, and precipitation reductions and increases due to local terrain. Many studies related to these phenomena are described in the Special Issue on SNOW-V10 for which this paper was written. Numerical weather prediction and nowcast models have been evaluated against the unique observational data set now available. It is anticipated that the data set and the knowledge learned as a result of SNOW-V10 will become a resource for other World Meteorological Organization member states who are interested in improving forecasts of winter weather.     

Queer Farmland: Land Access Strategies for Small-Scale Agriculture

Farmers struggle to afford farmland because competing land uses raise prices higher than what farmers earn, especially in small-scale and sustainable agriculture. Farmers often depend on an intimate partner’s income or labor to access land, yet few studies investigate sexual relationships in farmland access. I interrogate how sexuality shapes land access for small-scale agriculture through participant observation and interviews with 25 queer farmers in New England. I find that queer farmers’ sexual identities and relationships influence where they farm, who they live and work with, how they afford the land, and how they learn to farm. I argue that finding land, labor, credit, and knowledge are intertwined, heteronormative processes of capital accumulation shaped by racism and sexism. Queer farmers’ experiences navigating heteronormativity suggest the relevance of sexuality to land conservation and food justice, limits of organizing land access through sexual relationships, and alternatives to the “family farm.”     

From krill to convenience stores: Forecasting the economic and ecological effects of fisheries management on the US West Coast

There is a need to better understand the linkages between marine ecosystems and the human communities and economies that depend on these systems. Here those linkages are drawn for the California Current on the US West Coast, by combining a fishery ecosystem model (Atlantis) with an economic model (IO-PAC) that traces how changes in seafood landings impact the broader economy. The potential effects of broad fisheries management options are explored, including status quo management, switching effort from trawl to other gears, and spatial management scenarios. Relative to Status Quo, the other scenarios here involved short-term ex-vessel revenue losses, primarily to the bottom trawl fleet. Other fleets, particularly the fixed gear fleet that uses pots and demersal longlines, gained revenue in some scenarios, though spatial closures of Rockfish Conservation Areas reduced revenue to fixed gear fleets. Processor and wholesaler revenue tracked trends in the bottom trawl fleet, which accounted for 58% of total landings by value. Income impacts (employee compensation and earnings of business owners) on the broader economy mirrored the revenue trends. The long-term forecast (15 years) from the Atlantis ecosystem model predicted substantial stock rebuilding and increases in fleet catch. The 15 year projection of Status Quo suggested an additional ∼$27 million in revenue for the fisheries sectors, and an additional $23 million in income and 385 jobs in the broader economy, roughly a 25% increase. Linking the ecological and economic models here has allowed evaluation of fishery management policies using multiple criteria, and comparison of potential economic and conservation trade-offs that stem from management actions.