Origin of Carboniferous sandstones fringing the northern margin of the Wales‐Brabant Massif: insights from detrital zircon ages

A study of detrital zircon age populations in Namurian–Westphalian (Carboniferous) sandstones in the southern Central Pennine Basin of the UK has revealed considerable complexity in their provenance history. The Pendleian–Marsdenian Morridge Formation, which is known to have been derived from the Wales‐Brabant Massif to the south on the basis of palaeocurrent and petrographic information, is dominated by zircons ultimately derived from the Caledonian belt to the north. These zircons were recycled from sandstones of northern origin that had been previously deposited over the massif during Middle to Late Devonian times. The Morridge Formation also includes Late Neoproterozoic zircons of local Wales‐Brabant Massif origin. The south lobe of the Yeadonian Rough Rock has been previously interpreted as having a complex provenance including sediment of northern origin interbedded with sediment ascribed to a Wales‐Brabant Massif source. However, the zircon spectrum lacks a Late Neoproterozoic component that would have been diagnostic of input from the Wales‐Brabant Massif, and the provenance history of the Rough Rock south lobe therefore remains enigmatic. The Langsettian Ludgbridge Conglomerate is dominated by Late Neoproterozoic zircons of Wales‐Brabant Massif origin, but even in this evidently proximal deposit, the provenance is complex since the main zircon group (ca. 640 Ma) cannot be matched with known local Neoproterozoic basement sources. The data either indicate the presence of hitherto‐unknown magmatic rocks of this age adjacent to the South Staffordshire coalfield or indicate that the zircons were recycled from sediment with a more distal origin. Finally, the Duckmantian Top Hard Rock contains zircons that can be reconciled with a source in the Irish Caledonides, consistent with the palaeocurrent evidence, supplemented by zircons derived from the Wales‐Brabant Massif, possibly including the Monian Composite Terrane of Anglesey. The study reinforces the important message that failure to recognize the presence of recycled zircon could lead to erroneous reconstructions of sediment provenance and transport history. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Atmospheric impacts of Arctic sea-ice loss, 1979–2009: separating forced change from atmospheric internal variability

The ongoing loss of Arctic sea-ice cover has implications for the wider climate system. The detection and importance of the atmospheric impacts of sea-ice loss depends, in part, on the relative magnitudes of the sea-ice forced change compared to natural atmospheric internal variability (AIV). This study analyses large ensembles of two independent atmospheric general circulation models in order to separate the forced response to historical Arctic sea-ice loss (1979–2009) from AIV, and to quantify signal-to-noise ratios. We also present results from a simulation with the sea-ice forcing roughly doubled in magnitude. In proximity to regions of sea-ice loss, we identify statistically significant near-surface atmospheric warming and precipitation increases, in autumn and winter in both models. In winter, both models exhibit a significant lowering of sea level pressure and geopotential height over the Arctic. All of these responses are broadly similar, but strengthened and/or more geographically extensive, when the sea-ice forcing is doubled in magnitude. Signal-to-noise ratios differ considerably between variables and locations. The temperature and precipitation responses are significantly easier to detect (higher signal-to-noise ratio) than the sea level pressure or geopotential height responses. Equally, the local response (i.e., in the vicinity of sea-ice loss) is easier to detect than the mid-latitude or upper-level responses. Based on our estimates of signal-to-noise, we conjecture that the local near-surface temperature and precipitation responses to past Arctic sea-ice loss exceed AIV and are detectable in observed records, but that the potential atmospheric circulation, upper-level and remote responses may be partially or wholly masked by AIV.     

Evolution of Stratocumulus Over Land: Comparison of Ground and Aircraft Observations with Numerical Weather Prediction Simulations

Forecasting of low cloud continues to challenge numerical weather prediction. With this in mind, surface and airborne observations were made over East Anglia, UK, during March 2011 to investigate stratus and stratocumulus advecting from the sea over land. Four surface sites were deployed at various distances inland aligned approximately along the flow. In situ data include cloud-droplet measurements from an aircraft operating off the coast and a tethered balloon 100 km inland. Comparisons of thermodynamic and cloud properties are made with Met Office operational model simulations at horizontal resolutions of 4 and 1.5 km. The clouds contained droplet concentrations up to 600 cm \(^{-3}\) within polluted outflow off Europe. These measurements were compared to three different model schemes for predicting droplet concentration: two of them perform well at low to moderate concentrations but asymptote to 375 cm \(^{-3}\) . Microwave radiometers at the ground sites retrieved liquid water paths that reduced with distance inland and were generally below 200 g m \(^{-2}\) . The modelled water path performs well upstream but more erratically far inland. Comparisons of thermodynamic profiles are made within both Lagrangian and Eulerian frameworks and show the model predicted changes in equivalent potential temperature generally within 1 K, with occasional errors of 2 K or more. The modelled cloud-top temperatures were in good agreement with the observations down to \(-\) 7  \(^{\circ }\) C, but the magnitude of the temperature inversion, although good at times, was too small by on average 1.6 K. The different simulations produced different cloud-top water contents due to a combination of resolution and scientific upgrades to the model, but they generally underestimate the amount of cloud water. Major changes, such as the mesoscale temporary cloud breaks on 2 March 2011 and the complete clearance on 4 March, were seemingly predicted by the model for the correct reasons.     

Large scale features and energetics of the hybrid subtropical low ‘Duck’ over the Tasman Sea

New aspects of the genesis and partial tropical transition of a rare hybrid subtropical cyclone on the eastern Australian coast are presented. The ‘Duck’ (March 2001) attracted more recent attention due to its underlying genesis mechanisms being remarkably similar to the first South Atlantic hurricane (March 2004). Here we put this cyclone in climate perspective, showing that it belongs to a class within the 1 % lowest frequency percentile in the Southern Hemisphere as a function of its thermal evolution. A large scale analysis reveals a combined influence from an existing tropical cyclone and a persistent mid-latitude block. A Lagrangian tracer showed that the upper level air parcels arriving at the cyclone’s center had been modified by the blocking. Lorenz energetics is used to identify connections with both tropical and extratropical processes, and reveal how these create the large scale environment conducive to the development of the vortex. The results reveal that the blocking exerted the most important influence, with a strong peak in barotropic generation of kinetic energy over a large area traversed by the air parcels just before genesis. A secondary peak also coincided with the first time the cyclone developed an upper level warm core, but with insufficient amplitude to allow for a full tropical transition. The applications of this technique are numerous and promising, particularly on the use of global climate models to infer changes in environmental parameters associated with severe storms.     

A global climatology of extreme rainfall rates in the inner core of intense tropical cyclones

The localized rain rate maxima (R_M) of the inner core region of intense tropical cyclones (TCs) are investigated using Version 6 of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis data-set from 1998 to 2010. Specifically, this study examines the probabilities of R_M exceeding 25 mm h^?1 (P25) in intense TCs. The 25 mm h^?1 R_M is the 90th percentile of all R_M observations during the study period. The descending order of P25 observed from intense TCs for the six major ocean basins is: the North Indian Ocean, the Atlantic Ocean, the Northwest Pacific Ocean, the South Pacific Ocean, the South Indian Ocean, and the East-central Pacific Ocean. The six major basins have been subdivided into 29 sub-basins to discern regional variability of R_M. P25 increases with increasing TC category in all major basins, except for the South Pacific. Sub-basins with intense TCs that produce extreme rainfall rate maxima include the Bay of Bengal, the South Philippine Sea, the East China Sea, the north coast of Australia, southeast Melanesia, and the Northwest Atlantic. Sub-basins with a higher proportion of category 5 (CAT5) observations than category 3 (CAT3) observations tend to have a greater P25 beyond 60 km from the storm center.     

Interannual variations in the local spatial autocorrelation of tropospheric temperatures

Many dimensions of the global temperature pattern have been explored intensely over the past few decades. In this investigation, we explore the underlying spatial autoregressiveness of annual tropospheric temperature anomalies measured by polar-orbiting satellites. We found that the percent of the Earth covered by areas of significantly high local autocorrelation ranged from 11.92% to 25.90% over the 1979 to 2008 study period. We gathered 13 different teleconnection indices that have been linked to regional to global temperatures and found two (Polar/Eurasia pattern and North Atlantic Oscillation) that were positively correlated to the percent area with high local spatial autocorrelation. The magnitude but not the sign of the El Ni?o Southern Oscillation is also an important factor in the variation of spatial autocorrelation. The physical mechanism driving high local spatial autocorrelation is thought to be zonal and hemispheric flow governed by the subtropical and polar jet streams.     

Spatial analysis of variations in precipitation intensity in the USA

In this study, we used various spatial analytical methods to examine variations and trends in precipitation intensity in the conterminous USA. We found that three different measures of precipitation intensity were highly correlated; intensity increased in a spatially coherent fashion in the northeastern quarter of the USA and generally decreased in the center portion of the western USA. Evidence is presented that spatial and temporal patterns in the trends of precipitation intensity are related to the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation. Our results are generally in agreement with others who are reporting an upward trend in precipitation intensity during a period when the planet appears to have warmed.