Evaluation of a multi-model approach to estimate leaf wetness duration: an essential input for disease alert systems

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - Disease alert systems (DAS) of the AgroClimate platform are intended to facilitate grower decision-making when planning fungicide applications. These DAS...     

Frequency dependence of elastic wave speeds at high temperature: a direct experimental demonstration

At sufficiently high temperatures and/or long periods, the elastic behaviour of crystalline material gives way progressively to viscoelastic behaviour associated with the stress-induced migration of crystal defects. This transition is marked by the onset of appreciable strain energy dissipation accompanied by frequency dependence (dispersion) of the shear modulus and elastic wave speeds. Ultrasonic interferometry and torsional forced-oscillation techniques can be used to probe the low-amplitude stress-strain behaviour of fine-grained polycrystalline material in two very different frequency ranges, respectively 10-100 MHz and 1 mHz-1 Hz. Here we demonstrate and apply these two complementary methods in a study of the high-temperature mechanical behaviour of a fine-grained synthetic olivine polycrystal. At the high frequencies of ultrasonic interferometry, the shear wave speed varies linearly with temperature between room temperature and the highest experimentally accessible temperature (1300 °C) in close accord with expectations based on similarly high-frequency studies of the elastic behaviour of single-crystal olivine. However, at teleseismic frequencies (<1 Hz) and temperatures >900 °C, the shear wave speed becomes much more strongly temperature-sensitive reflecting markedly viscoelastic behaviour. Newly emerging laboratory-derived constraints on this viscoelastic enhancement of the temperature sensitivity of seismic wave speeds and its grain-size dependence will provide a more robust interpretation of seismological models for the variation of wave speeds and attenuation within the Earth's interior.     

Rate of growth of the preserved North American continental crust: Evidence from Hf and O isotopes in Mississippi detrital zircons

Detrital zircons from the Mississippi River have been analyzed for U-Th-Pb, Lu-Hf and O isotopes to constrain the rate of growth of the preserved North American continental crust. One hundred and forty two concordant zircon U/Pb dates on grains mounted in epoxy, obtained by Excimer laser ablation ICP-MS method, resolved six major periods of zircon crystallization: 0-0.25, 0.3-0.6, 0.95-1.25, 1.3-1.5, 1.65-1.95 and 2.5-3.0 Ga. These age ranges match the ages of the recognized lithotectonic units of the North American continent in the hinterland of the Mississippi River. Ninety-six zircons mounted on tape, which show no age zonation and were within 7.5% of concordance, were selected to represent the six U/Pb age time intervals and analyzed for Lu-Hf and O isotope by laser ablation MC-ICP-MS and SHRIMP II, respectively. The δ¹⁸O values of the zircons show a small step increase in the maximum δ¹⁸O values at the Archean-Proterozoic boundary from 7.5‰ in the Archean to 9.5‰, and rarely 13‰, in the Proterozoic and Phanerozoic. However, the average value of δ¹⁸O in zircons changes little with time, showing that the increase in the maximum δ¹⁸O values between 2.5 and 2.0 Ga, which can be attributed to an increase in the sediment content of the source regions of younger granitoids, is largely balanced by an increase in zircons with anomalously low δ¹⁸O, which can be attributed to hydrothermally altered crust in the granitoid source region.εHf_i values for the zircons range from 13.1 to −26.9. Zircons derived from juvenile crust, which we define as having mantle δ¹⁸O (4.5-6.5‰) and lying within error of the Hf depleted mantle growth curve, are rare or absent in the Mississippi basin. The overwhelming majority of zircons crystallized from melted pre-existing continental crust, or mantle-derived magmas that were contaminated by continental crust. The average time difference between primitive crust formation and remelting for each of the recognized lithotectonic time intervals, which is defined as crustal incubation time in this study, is 890 ± 460 Myr. There is also a suggestion that the crustal incubation time increases with decreasing age in the Mississippi basin, which is consistent with the declining role of radioactive heat production in the lower crust with time.The average Hf model age (1.94 Ga), weighted by fraction of zircons in the river load is in reasonable agreement with the Nd model age (1.7 Ga) for the Mississippi River. However, if the zircons are weighted by the area of North America covered by the six recognized periods of zircon crystallization the average model age is 2.35 Ga, which compares favorably with an area weighted Nd model age of 2.36 Ga. Our preferred approach is to use the measured O isotope values to constrain variations in the ¹⁷⁶Lu/¹⁷⁷Hf ratio of the granitic source region from which the zircons crystallized, making the assumption that zircons with mantle-like O isotopic ratios have higher ¹⁷⁶Lu/¹⁷⁷Hf than zircons with higher O isotope values. This method gives an average Hf model age of 2.53 Ga, which is 180 Myr older than the constant ¹⁷⁶Lu/¹⁷⁷Hf calculation.The area weighted zircon Hf model ages show two distinct periods of crust formation for the North American continent, 1.6-2.2 and 2.9-3.4 Ga. At least 50% of the preserved North American continental crust was extracted from the mantle by 2.9 Ga and 90% by 1.6 Ga. Two similar periods of crustal growth are also recognized in Gondwana (Hawkesworth C. J. and Kemp A. I. S. (2006) Using hafnium and oxygen isotopes in zircons to unravel the record of crustal evolution. Chem. Geol.226, 144-162.), suggesting that these may be periods of global continental crustal growth. However, we stress that more data from other continents are required before the hypothesis of episodic global continental growth can be accepted with confidence.     

On the stability of close binaries in hierarchical three-body systems

The Hill-type stability (cf. closure of the zero-velocity curves in the circular restricted three-body problem) of general hierarchical three-body systems is examined analytically in the case where the total mass of the binary is small in comparison to the mass of the external body (e.g. systems of the type Planet-Satellite-Sun, Planet-Planet-Star, etc.). This is compared with results derived by Szebehely, Markellos and Roy in the Planet-Satellite-Sun case of the circular restricted three-body problem. It is demonstrated how the Hill-type stability is affected by the sense of revolution of the binary, i.e. corotational or contrarotational, and the mass ratio within the binary. The effect of the difference in longitudes of the bodies in their orbits is also examined.     

International Year of Astronomy 2009

IYA2009 will be a great opportunity for all of us working in astronomy (and space) to make an impact; certainly locally and nationally and, we hope, globally. So what is going on and how can you participate? Ian Robson has the answers.     

A multi-proxy record of the Last Glacial Maximum and last 14,500?years of paleoenvironmental change at Lone Spruce Pond, southwestern Alaska

Sediment cores from Lone Spruce Pond (60.007°N, 159.143°W), southwestern Alaska, record paleoenvironmental changes during the global Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), and during the last 14,500 calendar years BP (14.5?cal?ka). We analyzed the abundance of organic matter, biogenic silica, carbon, and nitrogen, and the isotope ratios of C and N, magnetic susceptibility, and grain-size distribution of bulk sediment, abundance of alder shrub (Alnus) pollen, and midge (Chironomidae and Chaoboridae) assemblages in a 4.7-m-long sediment sequence from the depocenter at 22?m water depth. The basal unit contains macrofossils dating to 25?C21?cal?ka (the global LGM), and is interpreted as glacial-lacustrine sediment. The open water requires that the outlet of the Ahklun Mountain ice cap had retreated to within 6?km of the range crest. In addition to cladocerans and diatoms, the glacial-lacustrine mud contains chironomids consistent with deep, oligotrophic conditions; several taxa associated with relatively warm conditions are present, suggestive of relative warmth during the global LGM. The glacial-lacustrine unit is separated from the overlying non-glacial lake sediment by a possible disconformity, which might record a readvance of glacier ice. Non-glacial sediment began accumulating around 14.5?cal?ka, with high flux of mineral matter and fluctuating physical and biological properties through the global deglacial period, including a reversal in biogenic-silica (BSi) content during the Younger Dryas (YD). During the global deglacial interval, the ??¹³C values of lake sediment were higher relative to other periods, consistent with low C:N ratios (8), and suggesting a dominant atmospheric CO₂ source of C for phytoplankton. Concentrations of aquatic faunal remains (chironomids and Cladocera) were low throughout the deglacial interval, diversity was low and warm-indicator taxa were absent. Higher production and air temperatures are inferred following the YD, when bulk organic-matter (OM) content (LOI 550?°C) increased substantially and permanently, from 10 to 30?%, a trend paralleled by an increase in C and N abundance, an increase in C:N ratio (to about 12), and a decrease in ??¹³C of sediment. Post-YD warming is marked by a rapid shift in the midge assemblage. Between 8.9 and 8.5?cal?ka, Alnus pollen tripled (25?C75?%), followed by the near-tripling of BSi (7?C19?%) by 8.2?cal?ka, and ??¹⁵N began a steady rise, reflecting the buildup of N and an increase in denitrification in soils. Several chironomid taxa indicative of relatively warm conditions were present throughout the Holocene. Quantitative chironomid-based temperature inferences are complicated by the expansion of Alnus and resulting changes in lake nutrient status and production; these changes were associated with an abrupt increase in cladoceran abundance and persistent shift in the chironomid assemblage. During the last 2,000?years, chironomid-assemblage changes suggest cooler temperatures, and BSi and OM values were generally lower than their maximum Holocene values, with minima during the seventh and eighth centuries, and again during the eighteenth century.     

Risks of shifting baselines highlighted by anecdotal accounts of New Zealand's snapper (Pagrus auratus) fishery

Anecdotal data sources may constitute an important component of the information available about an exploited species, as record keeping may not have occurred until after exploitation began. Here, we aimed to fill any gaps in the exploitative history of the sparid snapper (Pagrus auratus), using social and historical research methods. Social research consisted of interviews with recreational fishers, focusing on the most and largest snapper they had caught. In addition, the diary‐logs of two recreational fishers were analysed. Historical research consisted of investigation of old books, photos, archives and unpublished sources unconventional to fishery science. Interviews with fishers demonstrated no or weak trends in snapper abundance or size, and were likely impeded by a lack of ability to detect change in a fish stock that may still be considered abundant. The fishers’ perception of change, however, largely reflected recent experiences (last c. 10 years), when biomass is understood to have increased, and mostly did not consider experiences before the 1980s. Alternatively, diary‐logs of fisher catch rates produced a pattern that matched formal stock assessments of snapper biomass, suggesting declines in abundance up until the 1990s and an increase in biomass after that time. Historical research, although more qualitative, had the ability to investigate periods where formal records were not kept and described a fishery vastly different from the current one. Snapper were easily caught, in great abundance and in unusual locations. Localised depletion of snapper was first noticed in the early 20th century, despite spectacular catches of snapper occurring after that time. Snapper behaviour was also likely different, with visual sightings of snapper by onlookers a common occurrence. Although predictions from stock assessment models are consistent with that of the anecdotes listed here (i.e., high biomass in the past), these anecdotes are valuable as they explain lost biomass in a perspective meaningful to all. This perspective may be valuable for managers trying to consider the non‐financial value of a shared fishery but, if unrecognised, represents a shifting baseline.