"The Bush is No More": Insights on Institutional Change and Natural Resource Availability in Rural South Africa

The past decade has brought substantial transition to South Africa. The introduction of democracy in 1994 has yielded important political and socioeconomic transformations affecting millions of people. Here, we explore the impact of institutional and structural changes on the availability and management of fuelwood, a key natural resource in rural South Africa. As in other developing regions, many households depend on natural resources for both sustenance and energy needs. Drawing on qualitative data from 32 interviews, our objective is to describe, from the perspective of the respondents, (1) resource scarcity, (2) the underlying causes of resource scarcity, (3) the role of traditional authority in managing resources, and (4) strategies used by community members in the face of resource scarcity. The results have important implications for the well-being of both social and natural systems in many transitional, rural developing societies.     

Scientific uncertainty and climate change: Part I. Uncertainty and unabated emissions

Uncertainty forms an integral part of climate science, and it is often used to argue against mitigative action. This article presents an analysis of uncertainty in climate sensitivity that is robust to a range of assumptions. We show that increasing uncertainty is necessarily associated with greater expected damages from warming, provided the function relating warming to damages is convex. This constraint is unaffected by subjective or cultural risk-perception factors, it is unlikely to be overcome by the discount rate, and it is independent of the presumed magnitude of climate sensitivity. The analysis also extends to “second-order” uncertainty; that is, situations in which experts disagree. Greater disagreement among experts increases the likelihood that the risk of exceeding a global temperature threshold is greater. Likewise, increasing uncertainty requires increasingly greater protective measures against sea level rise. This constraint derives directly from the statistical properties of extreme values. We conclude that any appeal to uncertainty compels a stronger, rather than weaker, concern about unabated warming than in the absence of uncertainty.     

Wildfire-Migration Dynamics: Lessons from Colorado's Fourmile Canyon Fire

The number of people living in wildfire-prone wildland–urban interface (WUI) communities is on the rise. However, no prior study has investigated wildfire-induced residential relocation from WUI areas after a major fire event. To provide insight into the association between sociodemographic and sociopsychological characteristics and wildfire-related intention to move, we use data from a survey of WUI residents in Boulder and Larimer counties, Colorado. The data were collected 2 months after the devastating Fourmile Canyon fire destroyed 169 homes and burned more than 6,000 acres of public and private land. Although this study is working with a small migrant sample, logistic regression models demonstrate that survey respondents intending to move in relation to wildfire incidence do not differ sociodemographically from their nonmigrant counterparts. They do, however, show significantly higher levels of risk perception. Investigating destination choices shows a preference for short-distance moves.     

Physical properties of sediment from the Mount Elbert Gas Hydrate Stratigraphic Test Well, Alaska North Slope

This study characterizes cored and logged sedimentary strata from the February 2007 BP Exploration Alaska, Department of Energy, U.S. Geological Survey (BPXA-DOE-USGS) Mount Elbert Gas Hydrate Stratigraphic Test Well on the Alaska North Slope (ANS). The physical-properties program analyzed core samples recovered from the well, and in conjunction with downhole geophysical logs, produced an extensive dataset including grain size, water content, porosity, grain density, bulk density, permeability, X-ray diffraction (XRD) mineralogy, nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR), and petrography.This study documents the physical property interrelationships in the well and demonstrates their correlation with the occurrence of gas hydrate. Gas hydrate (GH) occurs in three unconsolidated, coarse silt to fine sand intervals within the Paleocene and Eocene beds of the Sagavanirktok Formation: Unit D-GH (614.4 m-627.9 m); unit C-GH1 (649.8 m-660.8 m); and unit C-GH2 (663.2 m-666.3 m). These intervals are overlain by fine to coarse silt intervals with greater clay content. A deeper interval (unit B) is similar lithologically to the gas-hydrate-bearing strata; however, it is water-saturated and contains no hydrate.In this system it appears that high sediment permeability (k) is critical to the formation of concentrated hydrate deposits. Intervals D-GH and C-GH1 have average “plug” intrinsic permeability to nitrogen values of 1700 mD and 675 mD, respectively. These values are in strong contrast with those of the overlying, gas-hydrate-free sediments, which have k values of 5.7 mD and 49 mD, respectively, and thus would have provided effective seals to trap free gas. The relation between permeability and porosity critically influences the occurrence of GH. For example, an average increase of 4% in porosity increases permeability by an order of magnitude, but the presence of a second fluid (e.g., methane from dissociating gas hydrate) in the reservoir reduces permeability by more than an order of magnitude.     

Formation pressure testing at the Mount Elbert Gas Hydrate Stratigraphic Test Well, Alaska North Slope: Operational summary, history matching, and interpretations

In February 2007, the U.S. Department of Energy, BP Exploration (Alaska), and the U.S. Geological Survey, collected open-hole pressure-response data, as well as gas and water sample collection, in a gas hydrate reservoir (the BPXA-DOE-USGS Mount Elbert Gas Hydrate Stratigraphic Test Well) using Schlumberger's Modular Dynamics Formation Tester (MDT) wireline tool. Four such MDT tests, ranging from six to twelve hours duration, and including a series of flow, sampling, and shut-in periods of various durations, were conducted. Locations for the testing were selected based on NMR and other log data to assure sufficient isolation from reservoir boundaries and zones of excess free water. Test stages in which pressure was reduced sufficiently to mobilize free water in the formation (yet not cause gas hydrate dissociation) produced readily interpretable pressure build-up profiles. Build-ups following larger drawdowns consistently showed gas-hydrate dissociation and gas release (as confirmed by optical fluid analyzer data), as well as progressive dampening of reservoir pressure build-up during sequential tests at a given MDT test station.History matches of one multi-stage, 12-h test (the C2 test) were accomplished using five different reservoir simulators: CMG-STARS, HydrateResSim, MH21-HYDRES, STOMP-HYD, and TOUGH + HYDRATE. Simulations utilized detailed information collected across the reservoir either obtained or determined from geophysical well logs, including thickness (11.3 m, 37 ft.), porosity (35%), hydrate saturation (65%), both mobile and immobile water saturations, intrinsic permeability (1000 mD), pore water salinity (5 ppt), and formation temperature (3.3-3.9 °C). This paper will present the approach and preliminary results of the history-matching efforts, including estimates of initial formation permeability and analyses of the various unique features exhibited by the MDT results.     

Hillslope sediment fence catch efficiencies and particle sorting for post-fire rain storms

Sediment fences are often used to monitor hillslope erosion, but these can underestimate sediment yields due to overtopping of runoff and associated sediment. We modified four sediment fences to collect and measure the runoff and sediment that overtopped the fence in addition to the sediment deposited behind the fence. Specific objectives were to: (1) determine the catch efficiency of sediment fences measuring post-fire hillslope erosion; (2) assess particle sorting of sand, silt/clay, and organic matter from each hillslope through the sediment fence and subsequent runoff collection barrels; (3) evaluate how catch efficiency and particle size sorting relate to site and rainfall-runoff event characteristics; and (4) use runoff simulations to estimate sediment fence volumes for future post-fire monitoring. Catch efficiency ranged from 28 to 100% for events and 38 to 94% per site for the entire sampling season, indicating a relatively large underestimation of sediment yields by sediment fences. Most of the eroded sediment had similar proportions of sand and silt/clay as the hillslope soils, but the sediment behind the fence was significantly enriched in sand while the sediment that overtopped the fence was more strongly enriched in silt/clay. The sediment fences had capacities of 3 m³ for hillslopes of 0.19–0.43 ha, but simulations of runoff for 2- to 100-year storms indicate that the sediment fences would need a capacity of up to 240 m³ to store all of the runoff and associated sediment. More accurate measurements of sediment yields with sediment fences require either increasing the storage capacity of the sediment fence(s) to accommodate the expected volume of runoff and sediment, reducing the size of the contributing area, or directly measuring the runoff and sediment that overtop the fence. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The discovery of Isocrinus cf. robustus from the Lias Group (Lower Jurassic) near Dunrobin Castle, Sutherland, Scotland

A single stem section (pluricolumnal) belonging to a post-Palaeozoic crinoid (sea lily) is reported from a small outcrop of Lower Jurassic Lias Group strata exposed in low cliff near Dunrobin Castle. This is the first Jurassic crinoid recorded from Eastern Scotland and the small fragment has enough diagnostic characters to be assigned to the species Isocrinus cf. robustus; a crinoid found commonly in the Lower Jurassic of England. The Scottish form collected has unusual morphology that is atypical of the genus.     

Vertical distribution of living mangrove foraminifera from KwaZulu-Natal,South Africa

Modern foraminiferal assemblage zones can be used to reconstruct palaeo sea levels when applied to fossil foraminifera down a sediment core. Previous intertidal foraminiferal studies have predominantly focused on assemblages in surface sediments (0–1 cm), with the rationale that surface assemblages reflect the modern-day environment. Foraminifera live infaunally and therefore there is a need to document the infaunal vertical distribution of living foraminifera to fully capture the modern environment. Infaunal foraminiferal populations may compositionally differ from or be similar to those in the uppermost 1 cm of a core sample, but abundance is variable vertically, making it very complex to reconstruct and interpret past sea levels. This can have implications for the choice of assemblages to use as modern analogues for past sea-level reconstructions. This study documents the vertical infaunal distribution of living foraminifera, to allow for more informed interpretations of palaeo-reconstructions in mangrove environments. The down-core vertical distribution and abundance of living foraminifera, along with grain size and organic content, were documented using sediment cores along an elevational transect. Nine taxa were recorded as living at the time of collection, six of which were restricted to the top 4 cm. The majority of these were calcareous and found in the cores situated closer to the intertidal channel. Therefore, we argue that the diversity of living calcareous and agglutinated foraminifera could be restricted by grain size, with coarser grain sizes associated with lower species diversity. The findings suggest that foraminiferal species inhabiting the top 4 cm represent deeper living foraminiferal populations. Therefore, the top 4-cm interval can be used to establish a modern training set upon which reconstructions can be based. The findings from this study will provide guidance on the use of South African mangrove environments for future sea-level reconstructions.     

Aggregation of riverine colloidal iron in estuaries: A new kinetic study using stopped-flow mixing

The kinetics of aggregation of riverine colloidal iron have been examined using a stopped-flow technique which probes the first few seconds of mixing between river and sea water end members. A significant fraction, up to 80%, of the colloidal iron is aggregated during the first 1–2 s of mixing, indicating that the aggregation process is much faster than previously thought. Most of the aggregation induced by seawater results from the divalent cations Mg²⁺ and Ca²⁺, with the overall ionic strength having little influence. At equal concentrations of 27 mM, the rate of aggregation by alkaline earth cations increased with ionic size Mg²⁺ < Ca²⁺ < Sr²⁺ < Ba²⁺. The aggregation rates were indifferent to the anion (Cl⁻ or SO₄²⁻) present. Very high aggregation rates were also induced by the common water treatment coagulant Al₂(SO₄)₃ at concentrations in the range 20–30 µM Al(III), several orders of magnitude lower that those used for the seawater cations. Our results support the view that specific chemical interactions between the cations and the colloid particle surface, rather than simple electrical effects, control the colloid stability.