Uncertainty as the overlap of alternate conditional distributions

An important task in modern geostatistics is the assessment and quantification of resource and reserve uncertainty. This uncertainty is valuable support information for many management decisions. Uncertainty at specific locations and uncertainty in the global resource is of interest. There are many different methods to build models of uncertainty, including Kriging, Cokriging, and Inverse Distance. Each method leads to different results. A method is proposed to combine local uncertainties predicted by different models to obtain a combined measure of uncertainty that combines good features of each alternative. The new estimator is the overlap of alternate conditional distributions.     

数字电子水准仪检定方法的研究

针对目前数字电子水准仪的检验仍然拘泥于光学模拟水准仪检验方法的现状,提出以完全根据仪器示值来评价水准仪精度性能的检验方法.     

模糊理论在公路边坡稳定性分析中的应用

边坡工程是一个复杂的系统工程。边坡的稳定与否直接关系到其防护工作的程度。因此,如何有效、合理地判断边坡的稳定性对整个工程的经济与社会效益极为重要。影响边坡稳定的因素众多,判断其稳定与否应考虑各因素的综合效果。论文运用模糊理论中的多因素综合评判模型对某高速公路边坡的稳定性进行研究。通过全面考虑影响因素,建立相应的评判因素集及单因素评判矩阵,运用专家评判法和判断矩阵法确定出各因素的权重。最后通过多层次模糊评判得到该边坡的稳定性评判结果。研究证明,该法在边坡稳定性分析评判中是切实可行的。     

A decade of change in the Skidaway River estuary I. Hydrography and nutrients

The Skidaway River estuary is a tidally-dominated subtropical estuary in the southeastern USA surrounded by extensiveSpartina salt marshes. Weekly smapling at high and low tide began in 1986 for hydrography, nutrients, chlorophylla, particulate matter, and microbial and plankton biomass and composition; hydrographic and nutrient data during 1986–1996 are reported here. Salinity varied inversely with river discharge and exhibited variability at all time scales but with no long-term trend. Water temperature typically ranged over 25°C and was without apparent long-term frend. Seasonal cycles in concentrations of NO₃, NH₄, PO₄, Si(OH)₄, and DON were observed, with annual maxima generally occurring in late summer. Superimposed on seasonal cycles, all five nutrients exhibited steady increases in minimum, mean, and maximum concentrations; mean concentrations increased c. 50–150% during the decade. Nutrient concentrations were highly correlated with water temperature over the ten-year period, but weakly related to salinity and discharge. Nutrients were strongly correlated with one another, and the relative ratios among inorganic nutrients showed little long-term trend. Correlations among temperature and nutrient concentrations exhibited considerable inter-annual variability. Major spikes in organic and inorganic nutrient concentrations coincided with significant rainfall events; concentrations increased hyperbolically with rainfall. Although pristine compared to more heavily impacted waterways primarily outside the region, residential development and population density have been increasing rapidly during the past 15–20 years. Land use is apparently altering nutrient loading over the long-term (months-years), and superimposed on this are stochastic meteorological events that accelerate these changes over the short term (days-weeks).     

Kosa (yellow sand) components in precipitation collected at central Japan

In east Asia, acidic gases derived from fossil fuel combustion have increased in the past decades. On the other hand, the Asian dust, also called Kosa (yellow sand) is transported following windstorms from arid lands in the Asian continent. Many researchers have been interested in the reaction between acidic aerosols and Kosa aerosols as well as the long-range transport of these emissions. To investigate the characteristics of chemical components in precipitation on a long-term basis over Japan, precipitation was sequentially collected from April 1984 to March 1997 at Kanazawa located near the coast of the Sea of Japan. Precipitation samples were collected at 1 mm intervals for the first 5 mm rainfall and all volume of rainwater after 6 mm for all precipitation events with an automatic wet only precipitation collector. According to the analyses of precipitation including Kosa aerosols during Kosa periods, the reaction in the air between Kosa and acidic components during the long-range transport was discussed.     

Fine structure of Pn velocity beneath Sichuan-Yunnan region

We use 23298 Pn arrival-time data from Chinese national and provincial earthquake bulletins to invert fine structure of Pn velocity and anisotropy at the top of the mantle beneath the Sichuan-Yunnan and its adjacent region. The results suggest that the Pn velocity in this region shows significant lateral variation; the Pn velocity varies from 7.7 to 8.3 km/s. The Pn-velocity variation correlates well with the tectonic activity and heat flow of the region. Low Pn velocity is observed in southwest Yunnan, Tengchong volcano area, and the Panxi tectonic area. These areas have very active seismicity and tectonic activity with high surface heat flow. On the other hand, high Pn velocity is observed in some stable regions, such as the central region of the Yangtze Platform; the most pronounced high velocity area is located in the Sichuan Basin, south of Chengdu. Pn anisotropy shows a complex pattern of regional deformation. The Pn fast direction shows a prominent clockwise rotation pattern from east of the Tibetan block to the Sichuan-Yunnan diamond block to southwest Yunnan, which may be related to southeastward escape of the Tibetan Plateau material due to the collision of the Indian Plate to the Eurasia Plate. Thus there appears to be strong correlation between the crustal deformation and the upper mantle structure in the region. The delay times of events and stations show that the crust thickness decreases from the Tibetan Plateau to eastern China, which is consistent with the results from deep seismic sounding.     

Two and Half Dimensional Simulation of Ridge Effects on the Ground Motion Characteristics

— Seismic responses of weathered and non-weathered ridge models were simulated to study the ridge effects on the ground motion characteristics. The range of ridge slope from 19.98° to 45° was considered to produce a possible set of generalized results. 2.5-D modeling based on parsimonious staggered grid approximation of elastodynamic wave equations was adopted in simulations. Computed results reveal an increase of amplitude of incoming waves with both elevation and the slope of the ridge. Further, the characteristics of surface waves are highly ridge slope dependent. The analysis of responses of weathered and non-weathered ridge models reveals that ridge has caused a strong generation of surface waves near its top. The surface waves are not dominating on the top of the ridge but at some lower elevation. The increase of weathering of ridge further intensified the ridge effect. Analysis in frequency domain, based on spectral ratio method, does not indicate any pattern in the spectral amplification factor and is very much sensitive to slope, source focal mechanism and location. However, on an average there is a continuous decrease of amplification with slope in the vertical component and increase in the transverse component, and it is increasing in the radial component up to slope =38.0° and thereafter decreasing.     

Lateral tidal mixing in the Antarctic marginal seas

Tidal mixing plays an important role in the modification of dense water masses around the Antarctic continent. In addition to the vertical (diapycnal) mixing in the near-bottom layers, lateral mixing can also be of relevance in some areas. A numerical tide simulation shows that lateral tidal mixing is not uniformly distributed along the shelf break. In particular, strong mixing occurs all along the Ross Sea and Southern Weddell Sea shelf breaks, while other regions (e.g., the western Weddell Sea) are relatively quiet. The latter regions correspond surprisingly well to areas where indications for cross-shelf exchange of dense water masses have been found. The results suggest that lateral tidal mixing may account for the relatively small contribution of Ross Sea dense water masses to Antarctic Bottom Water.