单斜构造区岩溶倾斜洞穴发育趋势与岩层产状相关性识别

通过构建岩溶倾斜洞穴发育趋势面和岩层倾向面,探讨在单斜构造区岩溶倾斜洞发育趋势与岩层产状的相关性。首先,根据洞穴探测导线长度、方向、倾角等要素,以测量初始点为原点建立空间直角坐标系,将测量空间方位角转换为平面直角坐标系中的方向角,将测量数据投影在平面直角坐标系上,运用向量加法原理求出各测点平面向量及坐标,结合各测点的相对高差,运用趋势面分析方法进行一次拟合,构建洞道空间展布平面方程;其次,根据岩层产状信息在空间坐标系中构建平面方程;最后,通过计算两平面法向量的夹角,来判断洞穴空间展布平面和岩层产状平面的重合度,同时求出两平面与同一水平面的交线所成角来判断洞穴空间展布趋势面与岩层面的倾向关系。通过实例证明,该方法用于探讨单斜构造区岩层产状对倾斜洞穴发育趋势的影响识别具有一定的实用性。      

川西南荥经坳陷川荥页1井奥陶系沉积相与古生物特征及地层厘定

对川西南荥经坳陷内三口页岩气井尤其是川荥页1井奥陶系开展了系统的岩心观察和分析。三口钻井在梁山组之下均发育十余米厚的灰黑色泥岩,其中川荥页1井灰黑色泥岩厚近16m。沉积相分析认为灰黑色泥岩为浅水陆棚相,泥岩之下发育的大套砂岩为滨岸近滨亚相,总体向上海水逐渐变深。砂岩中发育丰富的沉积软变形构造及波状交错层理、浪成沙纹层理、平行层理、斜层理等构造。川荥页1井上部泥岩中见大量三叶虫、笔石和腕足等化石及其碎片,鉴定表明含有代表中下奥陶统的常见生物分子,如对笔石(Didymograotus sp.)、大洪山虫(Taihungshania sp.)等。该套砂泥岩组合在沉积相及古生物化石等方面明显区别于荥经坳陷周缘奥陶系五峰组—志留系龙马溪组,与研究区及邻区中下奥陶统红石崖组、湄潭组、大湾组、大官山组中段等层位相当。     

Verification and Assessment of Real-time Forecasts of Two Extreme Heavy Rain Events in Zhengzhou by Operational NWP Models

In the present study, the performances of the NWP models on two heavy rainfalls on 20 July and 22 August 2021 over Henan Province were investigated. The impacts of the water vapor transport to the extreme rainfall were further discussed. The results showed that the regional model system in the Guangzhou Meteorological Service generally showed high scores on the extreme rainfall over Henan. The maximum 24h accumulative rainfall by the 24h forecasts by the CMA-GD reached 556 mm over Henan Province. The 24-h and 48-h Threat Score (TS) of heavy rainfall reached 0.56 and 0.64. The comparisons of the Fraction Skill Score (FSS) verifications of the heavy rainfall by CMA-GD and CMA-TRAMS at the radium of 40km reached 0.96 and 0.87. The water vapor transport to the extreme rainfall showed that the vertically integrated water vapor transport (IVT) of the whole layer before the occurrence of the heavy rainfall exhibited a double-eyes distribution in case 7 · 20. The north eye over Henan reached the same magnitude of IVT as the typhoon eye (Cempaka) over south China. The IVT over the lower troposphere (<500 hPa) showed an overwhelming magnitude than the upper level, especially in the planetary boundary layer (<700 hPa). More practical technical needs to be developed to improve its performances on the forecasting of extreme rainfall, as well as more experiments need to be conducted to examine the effects of the specific terrain and physical schemes on the extreme rainfall.     

自然湿地鹤类数量对土地利用变化的响应

鹤类是我国重点野生保护动物,近年来,随着人类活动的加强,鹤类数量变化显著。为了保护鹤类提供更好的依据,该文文章以升金湖自然湿地为例,研究鹤类种群数量对土地利用变化的响应。文章利用软件提取升金湖八期TM遥感影像的土地利用信息;利用土地利用动态度、物种多样性,分析土地利用变化特征及各地类生境鸟类的多样性。对比1986—2015年升金湖越冬鹤类的种群数量变化,以及土地利用变化,分析结果表明:鹤类数量与土地利用类型存在一定相关,湿地内芦苇滩地、泥滩地、草滩地、水田、建设用地等的土地类型变化,对鹤类数量影响较大。     

Position-domain integrity risk-based ambiguity validation for the integer bootstrap estimator

Integrity monitoring for ambiguity resolution is of significance for utilizing the high-precision carrier phase differential positioning for safety–critical navigational applications. The integer bootstrap estimator can provide an analytical probability density function, which enables the precise evaluation of the integrity risk for ambiguity validation. In order to monitor the effect of unknown ambiguity bias on the integer bootstrap estimator, the position-domain integrity risk of the integer bootstrapped baseline is evaluated under the complete failure modes by using the worst-case protection principle. Furthermore, a partial ambiguity resolution method is developed in order to satisfy the predefined integrity risk requirement. Static and kinematic experiments are carried out to test the proposed method by comparing with the traditional ratio test method and the protection level-based method. The static experimental result has shown that the proposed method can achieve a significant global availability improvement by 51% at most. The kinematic result reveals that the proposed method obtains the best balance between the positioning accuracy and the continuity performance.     

Mapping hourly dynamics of urban population using trajectories reconstructed from mobile phone records

Understanding the spatiotemporal dynamics of urban population is crucial for addressing a wide range of urban planning and management issues. Aggregated geospatial big data have been widely used to quantitatively estimate population distribution at fine spatial scales over a given time period. However, it is still a challenge to estimate population density at a fine temporal resolution over a large geographical space, mainly due to the temporal asynchrony of population movement and the challenges to acquiring a complete individual movement record. In this article, we propose a method to estimate hourly population density by examining the time‐series individual trajectories, which were reconstructed from call detail records using BP neural networks. We first used BP neural networks to predict the positions of mobile phone users at an hourly interval and then estimated the hourly population density using log‐linear regression at the cell tower level. The estimated population density is linearly correlated with population census data at the sub‐district level. Trajectory clustering results show five distinct diurnal dynamic patterns of population movement in the study area, revealing spatially explicit characteristics of the diurnal commuting flows, though the driving forces of the flows need further investigation.     

基于指标体系的中国水环境评价研究

从水压力、水管理、水污染、灾害风险及社会经济效应5个要素出发,构建水环境综合评价体系,并用均值法求得水环境综合评价指数,对我国31个省(市、自治区)的水环境状况进行评价。以人口数量为权重将分省(市、自治区)要素指标转化为流域尺度,对我国十大流域片进行水环境评价及5个单要素分析,指出地域间水环境差异及水环境问题。     

基于小波变换与ARMA模型的建筑物沉降预报

对建筑物进行沉降监测并预报其变化趋势,能有效保障建筑物的安全性。本文提出一种基于小波变换的ARMA模型用于建筑物沉降预报。利用小波多尺度分析将沉降监测数据分解为高频信号和低频信号,并分别采用ARMA模型进行预测,然后将各序列预测结果进行合成,得到最终预测结果。并以青岛市某高层建筑物监测数据为例,分别采用传统ARMA模型以及基于小波变换的ARMA模型进行预报对比分析,结果表明基于小波变换的ARMA模型取得了较高的预报精度。     

区域综合地质调查助力乡村振兴的关键内容、战略路径与未来对策

区域综合地质调查是助力乡村振兴的基础性工作和重要技术支撑。本研究基于地质视角解读乡村振兴,围绕乡村人地安全、产业发展、地质文化、环境保护等方面进行剖析,提出地质灾害调查、工程地质评价、水文地质调查、农业地质调查、旅游地质遗迹调查等区域综合地质调查助力乡村振兴的关键内容;为提高助力效率效果,需做好项目顶层设计、制定乡村地区区域地质调查技术要求等标准、构建服务地方工作机制、开展系统人才培训培养等战略路径。未来乡村发展中,应进一步解决区域统筹部署与重点发展村镇选择、综合地质调查与乡村规划建设空间尺度匹配、综合地质调查和纵向专业性调查配合使用、工程地质评价与乡村地下空间集约利用、地质文化村建设与乡村规划建设衔接等问题,不断提高区域综合地质调查技术方法的服务能力,为乡村可持续振兴提供解决思路和方案。